Trebek on the Tribe

Thoughts about Fausto

2010-03-30T17:57:00.000-07:00

Unfortunately, I've been too busy with school work to write much about the tribe lately. However, I've got a little free time and I think I'll sneak in a quick one here about our old friend Fausto. With that ladies and gentlemen, buckle your seat belts....

Before we look at Fausto's stellar Spring Training, let's look at the stats:

2007: 19-8, 3.06 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 3.88 xFIP, 5.73 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9, 64.3 GB%, .281 BABIP in 215 IP

2008: 8-7, 5.44 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 5.13 xFIP, 4.33 K/9, 5.22 BB/9, 0.52 HR/9, 63.5 GB%, .297 BABIP in 120.2 IP

2009: 5-12, 6.32 ERA, 5.36 FIP, 4.98 xFIP, 5.67 K/9, 5.03 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 55.2 GB%, .330 BABIP in 125.1 IP

Although Carmona posted an impressive 2007 by all of the statistics above, he looked to have outdone himself a bit. His FIP and xFIP (more accurate representations of ERA) are 0.82 and 0.86 runs respectively above his actual ERA. They were still impressive for a 23 year old nonetheless. His BABIP also looks like it was a little flukey low. His K rates were unspectacular, but he kept his BB rates low. However his HR/9 (0.67) and GB% (64.3) (crucial stats for a sinkerballer) were excellent. For comparison, Cliff Lee (0.66), CC Sabathia (0.70) and Justin Verlander (0.75) had similar HR/9 rates in '09 and only Joel Pinero (60.5%) really came close to Fausto's '07 GB%.

Expectations were high for Fausto heading into '08, but he underperformed expectations badly. I, and many others, blamed it on the Verducci Effect, which states that pitchers are injury prone and underperform the year after a 30 inning or more workload increase. Between AAA and Cleveland in '06 Fausto only complied 102.1 IP total innings. He pitched 112.2 more innings in '07 and more than double his '06 total. Predictably, Fausto got injured and his BB rate skyrocketed. However, his HR/9 and GB% rates stayed relatively stable. There was still much reason for hope.

Then the 2009 season happened. Fausto's BB rate remained unsustainably high, his HR/9 rate more than doubled and his GB rate dipped (although it was still the fourth best in baseball for pitchers with more than 120 IP). After his two-month demotion to the minors Fausto was somewhat better, but still nothing like his '07 self. Despite the fact that he's still only 26, everybody (myself included) had pretty much given up on him.

As I looked at the young talent in this organization this offseason and tried to determine Cleveland's future roster, something was missing. The lineup is already imposing and would only get better with reinforcements like Carlos Santana, Lonnie Chisenhall and Nick Weglarz on the way. Pitching-wise the Indians might have the best minor league depth in baseball, but I had trouble finding a guy with definite Top of the Rotation potential. Carrasco and Rondon are both near the majors, but probably middle of the rotation types. Jason Knapp is incredibly talented, but very young (19) and injury prone. Nick Hagadone has also TOR potential, but many talent evaluators believe he'll be relegated to the pen due to his injury risk. Alex White, the 15th overall pick in last year's draft, likewise has a lot of potential, but still hasn't thrown a professional inning yet. The organization seemed to be overflowing with talent, but lacked that crucial guy with definite TOR potential.

However, Fausto has seemingly reported to Spring Training a changed, reinvigorated man. He's cut some weight and has put up the following line this spring:

3-0, 0.45 ERA, 8H, 0HR, 2 BB, 9 K's in 20 IP

Granted, these are still only Spring Training stats, but Buster Olney, Manny Acta and Lou Piniella have all sung Fausto's praises. Many scouts are impressed. Despite the weakness of the AL Central this year, a possible Fausto resurgence would be much more helpful in '11 and beyond. The 2010 ballclub is just too flawed. The pitching situation outside of Fausto is still not pretty (and Fausto isn't a sure thing himself). Westbrook still hasn't pitched in a major league game since May 2008. Masterson flashes brilliance, but has been inconsistent and still has a lot of trouble getting lefties out. Talbot, Huff and Laffey are probably no better than #4/5 starters. Carrasco and Rondon still need seasoning in the minors and the Wood-less bullpen could be a major work in progress as demonstrated from Monday night's game.

However, with the outstanding talent present in the Indians organization.... A Fausto resurgence (he has options through 2014) could provide the crucial cornerstone to postseason glory in 2011 and beyond. The offense looks strong going forward and our pitching depth should fill up the bullpen and middle/back of the rotation with plenty of quality options. However, a focused, dominant Fausto could tip the balance and take the Indians from contenders to champions in a couple years.

I hope I didn't just jinx us....

Alex Trebek

An Optimistic Rant about the Indians

2010-03-08T15:00:00.000-08:00

Ok, I'm shooting this one from the hip. I've been stuck in the library all week pumping out my various midterm papers. I'm a little on edge, but I'm almost done and I'm going to channel this energy against something that's really getting on my nerves. LAZY NATIONAL AND LOCAL JOURNALISM REGARDING THE INDIANS.

I took a brief break from work this afternoon to read Keith Law's chat from last Thursday. Although I usually enjoy Keith Law and his normal sarcastic, snarky remarks about the Indians don't usually bother me (he is from Massachusetts after all), his complete and total disregard for the Indians today pissed me off and primed me for rant mode.

Here are his comments:

Steve (Cleveland)

It seems like the statistical projections have the Indians doing a lot better (CHONE has them at 81 wins) than the scouts and local media think. Pitching is obviously tough to project, but can this team be that good?

Klaw
(12:33 PM)

No.

Steve (Cleveland)

Can I get more than one word on the Indians?

Klaw
(12:47 PM)

They're not very good. That's four!

Ok, very funny Klaw...

In my quest for a little baseball news outside of the reliable bloggers (Let's Go Tribe, Tribe Daily, DiaTribe and Indians Prospect Insider), I went to Sports Illustrated's website. Tim Marchman, who ever the hell that is, pegged Mark Shapiro as the #22 "best" GM in baseball.

Marchman said this: "[Shapiro] has to be the most overrated executive of the last few years."

Thank you Mr. Marchman for your penetrating insight. Sure Shapiro hasn't drafted well (although the last two drafts are very promising) and he made some questionable free agent signings/extensions like David Dellucci and Jason Michaels, but this small-market team came very close to a championship in '07. Furthermore a deadly combination of Wedge, historically bad bullpens and bad luck caused Cleveland to badly underperform their Expected Pythagorean Win-Loss Record over the past couple of years. Give Shapiro $150 million and see what he could do. Finally my quest for Indians baseball information led me to my copy of Baseball Prospectus and I re-read the entry on the Indians. Of course I ran into the same tired pessimism:

"Talents such as Carlos Santana and [Matt] LaPorta might provide the lineup anchors for the next great crop of Tribesmen, but even in the decisively mediocre AL Central, it figures to be a slow climb back."

Ok, I'm guessing that the national media looks at these two facts and quickly comes the conclusion that the Indians are a lost cause.

Indians W-L

2007- 96-66 Tied for best in baseball

2008- 81-81 15th best in baseball

2009- 65-97 Tied for 4th worst in baseball

Moreover, the Indians have traded away two CY Young Winners over the past two years (CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee), all-star Victor Martinez and a bunch of quality, if replaceable, big leaguers like Casey Blake, Ryan Garko, Rafael Betancourt and Ben Francisco.

Thus, the majority of sports writers (from national to Sheldon Ocker) have concluded the Indians are done and finished. They snidely console us that "at least Cleveland still has LeBron."

Here are five reasons for Indians optimism if one digs a little deeper:

#1 Grady Sizemore- Many in the media say the Indians should, or will soon, trade Grady, but I retort the simple question: "Why?" Sizemore, still only 27, is signed for two more years at a bargain basement price of 13.1 million with a dirt cheap 8.5 million dollar option for 2012. Here are his WARs from '06-'08: 7.5, 5.9, 6.4. Granted he had a down year last year due to injuries, but he still put up a 111 OPS+. PECOTA predicts he'll put up the second highest WAR in the AL in '10 only behind Joe Mauer. The Indians could always trade Sizemore in 2012 if they actually are entering a lost decade. However, the Indians should be in position to compete in '11 so there's no reason to dump one of the game's premier players... at least not yet.

#2 The Lineup- Expanding up Sizemore.... look at the Indians' powerful, probable lineup:

1) SS Asdrubal Cabrera- He posted a .799 OPS in his year 23 season. For comparison's sake, Derek Jeter posted a .775 OPS in his year 23 season. Jeter subsequently put up the following OPS numbers the next four years: .864, .989, .896, .858. While Cabrera's likely not the next Jeter, he compares favorably to him.

2) CF Sizemore-See above.

3) RF Shin-Soo Choo-2008 wOBA-.402 OPS-.946 and 2009 wOBA-.389 OPS-.883 (Justin Upton 2009 wOBA-.388, OPS-.899)

4) DH Travis Hafner- Hafner will never again be the prolific slugger who put up OPSs of .993, 1.003 and 1.098 from '04-'06. Nonetheless, he rebounded and put up average-ish production for a DH in '09 (.825 OPS). Hopefully another year away from his shoulder surgery Hafner will be able to improve a bit upon that production, but if he doesn't at least Branyan provides nice insurance.

5) 3B Jhonny Peralta- Under Eric Wedge's watchful eye Peralta never came close to duplicating his outstanding age 23 season from '05 (.292/.366/.520). He completely tanked in '09 putting up a dismal .254/.316/.375 line. I think it's fairly safe to say that Peralta will bounce back to his solid '07-'08 levels (.771, .802 respective OPSs) with a new, less abrasive manager and an offseason to adjust to 3B.

6) 1B Russell Branyan- If for no other reason, signing Branyan for a bargain basement price of $2 million is a good deal for managing Brantley's service time. It never hurts to add a guy who whacked 31 homers in only 431 '09 ABs either.

7) LF Matt LaPorta- LaPorta is still unproven at the major league level. However, he ranked as BA's #27 prospect before 2009 and Kevin Goldstein gave him 5 stars then saying: "LaPorta projects as a classic high OBP/high slugging middle of the order presence."

8) 2B Luis Valbuena- Valbuena needs to polish his game especially defensively, but he's only 24 and had a higher ISO (isolated power=difference between BA and SLG) than Nick Markakis, Vladimir Guerrero and Todd Helton.

9) C Lou Marson- One of the many goodies acquired for Cliff Lee, he should be a decent high OBP, low slugging placeholder until Carlos Santana arrives midseason.

Pretty potent lineup.

#3- The Indians have a consensus top 5 farm system.

The Indians have Carlos Santana a dynamic catching prospect who looks a lot like a more athletic Victor Martinez, but with a little more power potential. Also looking to help in '10 is Michael Brantley who should infuse the lineup with a young, athletic high-OBP speedster. Lonnie Chisenhall may not be ready in '10, but Kevin Goldstein forsees a ".300 hitting third baseman with 20-25 home runs annually" in the future.

The Indians have some nice young pitching pieces already in the big leagues. Guys like Justin Masterson, Chris Perez, David Huff, Aaron Laffey, Tony Sipp and hopefully even Fausto Carmona constitute some decent building blocks. Granted none of those guys really jumps off the computer screen at you, but still the pitching staff topside isn't utterly devoid of talent.

As for the Indians minors pitching depth John Sickels said this: "The [Indians minor league] pitching.... wow, there is a ton of depth." The Indians have guys like Hector Rondon, Carlos Carrasco, Jess Todd, Zach Putnam, Josh Judy and Jeanmar Gomez who could easily help topside in '10. Futhermore intriguing arms like Alex White, Nick Hagadone, Jason Knapp, Kelvin de la Cruz, TJ House and Alexander Perez litter the lower levels of the Indians system. Some of these guys certainly will bust, but there is strength in numbers and the Indians have possibly unmatched pitching depth in the minors. The real question is this: will any of these guys become top of the rotation studs?

#4- Thankfully, the AL Central Sucks. Take a look at the PECOTA and CHONE projected standings. I'll do a post soon on the Tribe's AL Central opponents but just look at the projections:

PECOTA:

Minnesota-81-81

Chicago-80-82

Cleveland-79-83

Detroit-79-83

Kansas City-74-88

CHONE:

Minnesota-86-76

Cleveland-82-80

Chicago-81-81

Detroit-74-88

Kansas City-73-89

What a crapshoot. It's essentially a race to see who gets the honor of being swept out of the ALDS by the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays. Hell, despite the doom and gloom the rebuilding Indians look like they could have a legitimate shot of winning the Central in 2010. Well I'm not holding my breath, at least not for 2010, but it's nice to see that the Indians could actually make some noise before the bulk of their minor league talent is ready to help them.

#5- Manny Acta>Eric Wedge. Sure, Manny Acta has a career winning percentage of .385% (158-252), but he's held in high regard around the league. I like his positive energy and statistically- backed decision to drop Sizemore in the order. Hopefully he can shepherd the next wave of young Indians better than Eric Wedge could the last.

In conclusion, the Indians already have a strong lineup built around the impressive young core of Sizemore, Cabrera, Choo, LaPorta and Valbuena. Farm system reinforcements are on the way in the form of Carlos Santana and Michael Brantley this year and Lonnie Chisenhall and Nick Weglarz soon thereafter. Cleveland's current pitching staff, although certainly not barren, currently lacks the depth and impact talent to seriously contend. However, with their outstanding pitching depth coming up through the farm... The Indians should be in good condition to contend as early as 2011.

Long slow climb back? Ha, take that pessimists!

Humbly Yours,

Alex Trebek

Saturday Morning Musing-February Odds and Ends

2010-02-20T06:00:00.000-08:00

As we all try to survive February, and a particularly nasty one here in Ohio, let's take a look at some Indians related news.

First off, let's look at the big news concerning the promotions of Shapiro and Antonetti. I wholeheartedly agree with keeping these guys in the organization. I'm a staunch Shapiro supporter and his right hand man Antonetti deserves a shot to be GM. I think the Indians severe underachieving the past few years came from a mixture of bad luck, injuries, Eric Wedge and historically bad bullpens (almost beyond belief). On a tight payroll Shapiro has created teams with these expected win-loss (X-L) records the past 5 years (actual W-L in parentheses):

2005: 96-66 (93-69, -3)

2006: 89-73 (78-84, -11)

2007: 91-71 (96-66, +5)

2008: 85-77, (81-81, -4)

2009: 73-89, (65-97, -8)

That's pretty damn good for a small market team. I'm tired off these trolls blaming him... as if somebody else could do much better (I'm sure there are plenty out there who could do much worse). You have 2005 where the Indians should have made the playoffs, but lost 6 out of their last 7 to fall just short. By the way the White Sox X-L that year was 91-71 or 5 behind the that of the Tribe's, but they managed to make the playoffs anyways and win the World Series.

The Indians actually lost 11 more games than their X-L record said they should of in 2006. Hard to imagine how that offense with a stellar trio of CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Jake Westbrook heading the rotation finished so badly. Well I guess it comes down to THE BULLPEN. Grady Sizemore (.908 OPS at 23) and Travis Hafner (1.098 OPS) were otherworldly that year.

The only year the Indians actually outperformed their X-L record (2007) they collapsed in the ALCS.... In 2008 the Indians fell apart early, but came on strong at the end to finish 81-81 even after the Sabathia deal. Their X-L of 85-77 would have put them in the conversation for the division crown, which came down to a one game playoff between Minnesota and Chicago (both had 88 wins). And well, 2009 was just bad all around....

Using this evidence (teams that were or should have been in legitimate contention 4 out of last 5 years), I fully support promotions for Shapiro and Antonetti.

In other news, Russell Branyan is back for his fourth tour of duty in the Indians organization. For a reported 2 million dollars and another million in incentives, I like this deal. Hopefully he can have a hot first half and net the Indians a nice prospect, but moreover in light of the relatively optimistic CHONE and PECOTA standings predictions (Indians pegged at 81 and 77 wins respectively)... perhaps Branyan could push the Indians to the magical 82 or 83 wins that it may take to win this division (optimistic I know). Here's the probable lineup with Branyan onboard:

C- Lou Marson/Carlos Santana

1B- Russell Branyan

2B- Luis Valbuena

SS- Asdrubal Cabrera

3B- Jhonny Peralta

LF- Matt LaPorta

CF- Grady Sizemore

RF- Shin-Soo Choo

DH- Travis Hafner

Assuming health, that's a damned imposing lineup. Essentially Branyan takes the spot Brantley would have had in the lineup by shifting LaPorta out to leftfield. However, I have no problem with Brantley getting more seasoning at AAA. Maybe the lineup is a little too lefty heavy, but it's still impressive. If only, if only we had some pitching.....

Lastly, I got my copy of Baseball Prospectus' 2010 Handbook. It's always a good read and as a longtime reader of the publications such as The Onion I appreciate its snarky, sarcastic style. There were some nice nuggets of hope in the handbook, primarily concerning the tribe's offense, but surprisingly also about the Indians' pitching staff too.

BP's PECOTA predicted Grady Sizemore to bounce back and have the second highest WAR (5.4) in the AL behind only Joe Mauer (5.9). Furthermore, PECOTA remains a believer in Choo predicting that he'll have the fifth highest VORP (Value over Replacement Player) in the MLB amongst RF only behind Andre Eithier, Jayson Werth, Nick Markakis and Hunter Pence. Despite some predicted regression in '10 PECOTA likes young Asdrubal Cabrera's career prospects offering up impressive comparables in Tony Fernandez, Derek Jeter and Alan Trammell. Perhaps the most encouraging prediction was of rookie Carlos Santana who PECOTA saw as the catcher with the fifth highest VORP, a single slot beneath Victor Martinez.

On the pitching side there wasn't a great deal of optimism for '10, but a couple things caught my eye. One of Jeanmar Gomez's comparables was Javier Vazquez. Gomez sometimes gets forgotten within the incredible pitching depth of the Indians' system, but it's encouraging to see him favorably compared to Vazquez. Also, PECOTA likes Masterson and compared him to John Lackey. Hopefully he can learn to contain lefties a little better....

Well, that's all for now. Thanks for stopping by and to the readers who have e-mailed me insights/questions (I'll answer some reader questions in a future post). I'll be back next week with some first week opinions/reactions to tribe-related spring training intrigue.

Yours truly,

Alex Trebek

Previewing the NL

2010-02-15T15:38:00.000-08:00

It's still snowing out there.... We have something like 25 inches on the ground here in central Ohio. I thought I'd finish my preliminary preview of baseball in '10 before my evening seminar. Once again, I apologize for the strange formating issues.... and remember this post is just for fun since despite all the research in the world you can't easily predict the random nature of a 162 game baseball season. Enjoy!

NL East W L

(1) Philadelphia Phillies 92 70

(4) Atlanta Braves 89 73

Florida Marlins 82 80

New York Mets 81 81

Washington Nationals 66 96

The NL East is still a strong division and every team save the Nationals has a legitimate shot at the playoffs. The Phillies questionably swapped out Lee for Halladay, but still have a damn imposing rotation of Halladay, Hamels(I expect him to return to his ’08 form), Blanton, Happ and Moyer. There offense is similarly stacked with the likes of Howard, Utley, Werth, Rollins and Victorino. Who knows what to expect from their bullpen with an erratic Brad Lidge penciled in as closer, but bullpens are so volatile they’re not even worth projecting. It’s hard to pick against the Phillies here. The Braves almost made the playoffs last year and once again sport a fine looking roster in ’10. Despite the subtraction of Javier Vazquez, they still have a superb rotation headlined by a potent trio of Hudson-Hansen-Jurrjens and their offense should be better for the subtraction of Garrett Anderson’s 496 ABs and Jason Heyward’s impending arrival. The Marlins locked up ace Josh Johnson over the winter to give them a centerpiece on the pitching-side to complement their centerpiece on the hitting side Hanley Ramirez. Ricky Nolasco suffered horrible luck last year (5.08 ERA, 3.28 xFIP) and I view him as a co-ace to Johnson. The Marlins have plenty of young pitching depth to slot behind Johnson and Nolasco and with hitters like Uggla, Coghlan, Cantu and hopefully Maybin the Marlins could easily make some more noise this year in the East. The Mets have a Royal-esque offseason and triggered a hilarious post on fangraphs entitled “the contest” between Drayton Moore and Omar Minaya. Although they overspent for Bay, the Mets were so unhealthy last year that I believe they are getting underestimated. They’re a .500 team or maybe a little better, but I still think they’re fourth in the division. The future doesn’t look quite so grim for the Nationals with Strasburg in the minors. They could have a decent team in 2011 with guys like Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Drew Storen and Ryan Zimmerman leading a talented young core. 2010 you ask? Well, don’t hold your breath.

NL Central W L

(2) St. Louis Cardinals 90 72

Cincinnati Reds 86 76

Milwaukee Brewers 81 81

Chicago Cubs 78 84

Pittsburgh Pirates 67 95

Houston Astros 63 99

The Cardinals are the strongest team here on paper. The quartet of Carpenter, Wainwright, Pujols and Holliday is not one you want to mess with. They depleted their farm system and much of their young talent with their trades for Holliday and DeRosa last year, but it was worth it and they’re a strong team. Look for budding star Colby Rasmus to breakout this year and make it a powerful quintet of all-stars heading St. Louis’ roster. The Reds are a team I like a lot. They probably still are a year away, but they have a high upside, if volatile, rotation headed by Volquez, Cueto and Bailey that has already showed flashes of brilliance. Watch out for their 2012 rotation which could be dominating with Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, first round pick Mike Leake and stud Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman. Votto is an underappreciated star and their offense should be fine with guys like Bruce and Rolen. The Brewers improved their downright awful pitching staff with solid cogs Randy Wolf and Doug Davis to slot behind Yovani Gallardo. However, it’s still an underwhelming staff. At least the offense will be fun to watch with the Prince and Ryan “the Hebrew Hammer” Braun holding down the heart of the lineup. They look like a .500 team to me. I’m not particularly high on the Cubs. The Cubbies are handicapped by bad contracts and an aging roster and I’m not a fan of their GM Jim Hendry either. The Pirates are showing progress and have a young core in the majors and high minors that could turn the ship around in Pittsburgh. I’m a big Andrew McCutchen fan. Pirates GM Neil Huntington is doing his best in a tough situation. My Astros prediction may be a little harsh, but I foresee a collapse in Houston. They have an old, listless roster weighed down by bad contracts. Houston needs to focus inwards and build up their consistently lousy farm system. If not, Houston could suffer a lost decade…. and signing lousy, injury prone relievers to 3 year, 15 million dollar contracts doesn’t help Houston’s cause *cough, Brandon Lyon, cough*.

NL West W L

(3) Arizona D-Backs 89 73

Colorado Rockies 86 76

Los Angeles Dodgers 83 79

San Francisco Giants 75 87

San Diego Padres 68 94

My predictions here are fairly bold. People fall into the comfortable habit of predicting divisions like they finished the year beforehand. Although Arizona finished dead last with only 70 wins in ’09, they’ve made some moves this offseason and have an impressive core. Let’s start with the rotation. If Brandon Webb comes back healthy, a Haren-Webb-Edwin Jackson trio looks very strong. I believe that Ian Kennedy will benefit greatly from this change of scenery. He’ls still only 25, posted fine numbers in AAA last year (9.93 K/9, 3.57 K/BB, 1.92 FIP) and should make a fine #4 starter. On the offense end, the D-Backs have budding superstars Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton, along with a talented group of Stephen Drew, Miguel Montero, Connor Jackson and Chris Young. Imagine if that latter group can bring it together. As a result, I’m bullish on Arizona. The Rockies were a great story in ’09, sprinting into the wild card after an atrocious start. I almost picked them in the West because their talented roster spearheaded by Tulowitzki, Helton, Jimenez and Flower could still easily take it. The Dodgers had a lackluster offseason and strangely decided against offering arbitration to Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson. It’s difficult to predict their gifted, but volatile pitching duo of Clayton Kershaw (ugly 4.79 BB/9, but only 119H in 171 IP) and Chad Billingsley (3.14 ERA in first 120.1IP in '10, 5.45 ERA in last 79.1IP). They still have a nice offense spearheaded by an excellent outfield of Kemp, Ethier and Ramirez. The Giants just have such a lousy offense that it’s hard to put them any higher than this. Now the trio of Lincecum/Cain/Sandoval is imposing, but in general I think the Giants are overhyped due to their nice 88 win campaign last year. The Padres are in the capable hands of former Red Sox assistant GM Jed Hoyer. They have some nice guys coming through their system starting with #3 overall pick last year Donovan Tate. However, the team topside just isn’t very good, although I like youngster Matt Latos and think Adrian Gonzalez and Health Bell could make superb trade bait.

Playoffs:

ALDS

(1) New York over (3) Minnesota in 3 games

(2) Texas over (4) Boston in 4 games

NLDS

(3) Arizona over (1) Philadelphia in 5 games

(4) Atlanta over (2) St. Louis in 4 games

ALCS

(2) Texas over (1) New York in 6 games

NLCS

(4) Atlanta over (3) Arizona in 5 games

World Series

Texas over Atlanta in 7 games

Spring Training in a week!

Alex Trebek

Saturday Morning Musing-Previewing the AL

2010-02-06T05:00:00.000-08:00

Before you start: I am sorry about the formating issues with the W-L records.

Winter rages onwards. Well I'm here at the college library procrastinating from doing a german paper on "althochdeutsch" (old high german). I guess let's take a break and preview the AL in 2010. Granted, it's fairly useless to predict W-L records in February because of the injuries/luck/other intangibles involved with a 162 game baseball season, nonetheless let's just have some fun. Moreover, there's already half a foot of snow on the ground and it doesn't look like it's going to stop coming down anytime soon.

AL East W L

(1) New York Yankees 102 60

(4) Boston Red Sox 99 63

Tampa Bay Rays 91 71

Baltimore O’s 71 91

Toronto Blue Jays 68 94

The AL East will once again be the strongest in all of baseball. Personally, I’d peg the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays as the three best teams in baseball. The Yankees and Red Sox with their enormous payrolls and shrewd front offices are almost in a league of their own. I’ll take the Yankees here because I like their offseason moves to an already menacing team. The newly acquired trio of Curtis Granderson, Javier Vazquez and on-base machine Nick Johnson may not be as impressive as last years trio of Sabathia, Burnett and Texieria, but don’t discount it. I see them winning about as many games as last year (103) because their improvements are tempered somewhat by an aging roster (Jeter, Rodriguez, Pettitte, M. Rivera, Posada) that was unusually healthy last year. The Red Sox are probably still a step behind the Yankees. However, given Boston’s strong farm system, impressive core and monetary advantage if they aren’t as good as the Yanks this year they will be soon. The Rays and their creative GM Andrew Friedman shocked baseball in ’08 by making a run at a championship. It’s incredible that they have kept pace with the megamarkets of New York and Boston…. Despite their leadership, young talent and minor league system, I still see the Red Sox and Yanks as being superior to the small market Rays. The Baltimore O’s could be a surprise team in ’11… They already have a strong offense spearheaded by Markakis, Jones, Roberts, Reimold and Wieters and have an outstanding young pitching quartet of Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Zach Britton coming through the minor league system. Toronto has an ok farm system and an ok major league team (although the trio of Aaron Hill, Travis Snider and Adam Lind is something to build around). Mediocre Farm System+ Mediocre Major League Team=Screwed in AL East.

AL Central W L

(3) Minnesota Twins 86 76

Chicago White Sox 80 82

Cleveland Indians 76 86

Detroit Tigers 73 89

Kansas City Royals 66 96

The AL Central sucks. There, I said what was on everybody's mind. I’ll pick Minnesota by default. Scott Baker is a nice pitcher and I expect Francisco Liriano to turn it around after his nice stint in winterball (although I doubt he’ll ever come close to his unbelievable ’06 form). Minnesota’s offense has its holes, but Joe Mauer is a superstar and Morneau, Hardy, Cuddyer, Kubel and Span are all solid pieces around which to build. The White Sox have a potent quartet of starters in Jake Peavy, Mark Buerhle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd, but their offense looks pretty awful. Gordon Beckham will be a star and I expect bounce back seasons from Alex Rios and Carlos Quentin, but I’ve never been a big Alexei Ramirez fan personally (.723 OPS in his age 27 season) and there isn’t much help coming from the farm. The White Sox have a solid chance to capture the AL Central, but they don’t look like much more than a .500 team and are far inferior to the trio of New York-Boston-Tampa Bay. Cleveland has promise, but is rebuilding and is almost certainly at least a year away. Their offense spearheaded by Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera will receive young reinforcements from the likes of Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana and Michael Brantley, but the necessary pitching just isn’t there yet. The Tigers almost captured the AL Central crown in ’09, but probably outdid themselves. They were outscored 743-745 and lost important cogs Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson. Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello are outstanding pieces to build around and the minor league system has some promising pieces, but I just don’t see them going anywhere this year (although the AL Central is awful....). The Royals have Zach Grienke and Billy Butler along with nice pieces in David DeJesus, Gil Meche and hopefully a productive Alex Gordon, but Dayton Moore has made some notoriously questionable moves this offseason. They’ve paid free agents like Jason Kendall, Brian Anderson and Scott Podsednik who are just as qualified to receive a major league contract as to work at a gas station.

AL West W L

(2) Texas Rangers 88 74

Oakland A’s 86 76

Los Angeles Angels 85 77

Seattle Mariners 82 80

This division is the one I’m most looking forward to seeing in 2010. All four teams have a decent solid at the division crown. The consensus groupthink (if that’s not too Orwellian) is that the Mariners stand out from the crowd here. Granted the Mariners won 85 games last year and had an excellent offseason, but they were still outscored by 52 runs last year. Figgins and Lee are outstanding additions and I do like Jack Z, but the offense still is not that good and not to curb the collective enthusiasm of Mariners fans, but your team is probably a bit overrated (although a King Felix-Lee-healthy Bedard trio could very well prove me wrong). Furthermore I would like to say that although usually there is no harm in taking on a player for essentially nothing like the M’s did with Milton Bradley, but I think Bradley is an asshole in the mold of Albert Belle who will eventually alienate anybody he’s around long enough. I picked the Rangers because I like what’s brewing down there in Texas. Their offense core is already potent with the likes of Kinsler, Young and Cruz. I believe that despite Chris Davis’ ridiculously high number of K’s (150K’s in 391ABs!) that he could become a quality major leaguer. Add Rich Harden to a pitching corps built around young talent like Feldman, Holland, Hunter and Feliz and things start to look quite promising for the Texas Rangers. Moreover the Rangers were picked for the second straight year as BA’s top minor league system. Not much not to like there. I feel the A’s are underrated especially if Ben Sheets is healthy. Brett Anderson+Ben Sheets is almost enough to justify a winning record alone. Despite their spotty offense, pitchers like Braden and Cahill mean the A’s should be a solid or better team in ’09. It’s almost trendy to pick against the Angels every year despite their consistency and record of success. The duel losses of Lackey and Figgins hurt the Angels a lot, but they are a resilient bunch and could once again silence the doubters in ’10 by capturing another division crown.

ALDS

(1) New York over (3) Minnesota

(2) Texas over (4) Boston

ALCS

(2) Texas over (1) New York

Well there you go. Constructive criticism is always welcome and I value everybody's perspective. I do follow major and minor baseball closely and weigh a wide variety of sources before I make my picks, but remember I'm only one guy making picks in February. Admittedly my predictions were pretty lousy for the 2009 season. I did have the Yankees winning it all, but I had them beating the Mets in 7 games. In my myopic nostalgia I like to think that I correctly predicted the World Series winner in '09 (not that I liked the Yankees victory), but well in hindsight the Mets were still an awful choice for the NL champion.

Peace,

Alex Trebek

Saturday Morning Musings-"The Indians, Victor Wang and Transactions"

2010-01-23T05:00:00.000-08:00

Hey there, where is the new year going? Are we really already nearly a month into 2010? Well, I'm not complaining because that means we're that much closer to Spring Training and some major league baseball. Anyways, let's take a look around....

Using Victor Wang's prospect value research from the Hardball Times blogger "dougdirt" of John Sickels' Prospect Blog created this interesting farm system ranking that slotted the Indians as #1 in baseball. I'd take any prospect ranking with a grain of salt, but it's always nice to see the tribe's farm system ranked highly.

Let's take a closer look at Victor Wang's research. Carlos Santana appears to be a Top 10 prospect according to respected sources such as Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Project Prospect and John Sickels so we'll group him there. According to Mr. Wang's research Santana has a (rough comp in parenthesis according to "Wins Above Bench"):

10% chance of busting (Andy Marte)

50% chance of contributing (Ben Francisco/Casey Blake)

25% chance of being an everyday guy (Victor Martinez)

15% chance of being a star (a Grady Sizemore of catching)

We could do a specific evaluation for Chisenhall, Rondon, Brantley and the rest of the prospects. However instead of dissecting tribe prospects one by one, let's see what to expect from the "wave of arms". According to John Sickels' latest Indians prospect rankings the Indians have 6 pitchers (Hagadone, Rondon, White, Carrasco, Knapp and House) ranked as "Grade B or B-". Wang's research found that 52% of Grade B pitching prospects bust, so roughly 3 of these pitchers will at least be a major league contributer and it's likely that a couple could be more.

Onwards and upwards, the Indians had an impressive 15, yes 15, Grade C+ prospects (12 pitchers). Sickels identified 65 Indians guys who were at least "C" level. Wang found that about 75% of Grade C pitchers busted so that means that the Indians will most likely get about 3 useful or better pitchers out of that group of 12 C+ pitchers. Additionally if we assume that half of the unnamed Grade C prospects (of out of the 65 Sickels identified) are pitchers.... that gives us another 20 arms and possibly another 5 useful pitchers. That means that statistically speaking the Indians can expect about 11 major league caliber arms from their farm system.

The tribe undoubtably has pitching quantity, but the question remains will a couple of these guys take it to the next level? That will determine if the Indians will be mired in mediocrity or will make some deep playoff runs. As I've mentioned before, the hitting base is there (Sizemore, Choo, Asdrubal, LaPorta, Santana, Chisenhall, Brantley, Valbuena).... we just need the pitching to develop. Should be interesting to watch anyways......

Anyways, let's take a quick look at the thrilling *cough, cough* Indians-related transactions of the past few weeks.

-Indians sign C Mike Redmond to 1 year $850,000 deal.

This deal is fairly blah and has already been extensively covered by an Indians-news starved blogosphere. Personally, I don't mind throwing Marson into the fire with an understanding that Santana might need more time to further adjust to the catching position in AAA. The bat is definitely there though and with his athleticism, superb blocking skills and cannon of an arm he could become a plus defender in the future. However, the Indians pitching staff will undoubtably be young and erratic in 2010. So it's not a bad idea to bring in an experienced Mike Redmond to help the pitchers and the new coaching staff. If a positive externality of Redmond's signing is that the pitchers pitch better and give something like $10 million dollars in extra value, then this deal is a good one. Unfortunately it's tough to measure such things.

-Indians sign IF Mark Grudzielanek and trade 3B Jesus Brito to Pirates for IF Brian Bixler

First off, I've always like Grudzielanek. Despite the fact that he didn't play in the big leagues last year, there's no harm in giving him a shot on a minor league deal. I'm not going to lose much sleep about the Indians losing Jesus Brito. He's a decent, low A prospect, but he's behind the likes of Wes Hodges, Lonnie Chisenhall and Kyle Bellows on the organizational 3B depth chart. Bixler might help, he might not (his 26K's in 44 2009 MLB AB is scary). These moves give the Indians some options to go along with Valbuena and Donald and hell depth is never a bad thing.

That's all for now. Can you smell Spring Training around the corner?

Your pal,

Alex Trebek

What does the US sugar quota have to do with the payroll inequality in the MLB?

2010-01-09T05:00:00.000-08:00

Ok I admit that's a heady title, but bear with me. Before we analyze the US sugar quota and its parallels to the current large payroll inequality in baseball, let's make a few announcements and take a look at some recent Indians news. First off, I'm going to start posting more consistently in a segment called "Saturday Morning Musings." In these segments (this post represents the first one), we'll trudge through the week's events and analyze what has been, what could be and what could have been every Saturday morning. Fun, fun.

Furthermore, the Indians made a pair of signings this past week inking righties Austin Kearns and Shelly Duncan to minor league deals. Nothing exhilarating, but there's nothing wrong with bringing in some fresh blood on minor league deals to compete for the honor of being the final righty bat off the bench. In case you're interested take a look at '09 stats of the 4 righties competing for the 25th roster spot:

Austin Kearns: slash line- BA: .194/OBP: .336/SLG: .305, 3 HR and 17 RBI in 174 ABs

Shelly Duncan: .200/.200/.200, 0 HR and 1 RBI in 15 ABs (admittedly a very small sample)

Andy Marte: .232/.293/.400, 6 HR and 25 RBI in 155 ABs

Chris Gimenez: .144/.256/.243, 3 HR and 7 RBI in 111 ABs

*Cough* I guess my money's on Marte after he posted an "excellent" OPS+ of 85 (at least relative to the others).

Anyways, onwards to some prospectin'. Baseball America released their Indians top 10 list Wednesday. Here's how it shook out in case you missed it:

1. C Carlos Santana

2. 3B Lonnie Chisenhall

3. LHP Nick Hagadone

4. OF Nick Weglarz

5. OF Michael Brantley

6. RHP Jason Knapp

7. RHP Carlos Carrasco

8. RHP Hector Rondon

9. RHP Alex White

10. 2B/OF Jason Kipnis

After the top 2 (Badler considers Chisenhall an impact player like Santana), things start to get strange. Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus place a lot of weight upon a player's potential upside and thus Hector Rondon has suffered accordingly. Weglarz appears a little high. Although his plate discipline is excellent (18.1 BB% in '09) and he has definite power potential, he is limited by his speed (or more correctly a lack thereof) and his low positional value (either a poor fielding LF/1B or DH). Personally I'm not as high on White since he doesn't have a plus second pitch after his fastball and has somewhat awkward (perhaps injury prone) mechanics, but I understand the upside. Furthermore, the true strength of the Indians' system lies with it's incredible depth (especially with pitchers) and I dig the aggressive Kipnis grade based on his polished approach and possible move to 2B (although, it should be noted that the tribe tried the exact same thing with Trevor Crowe and it failed).

Anyways, with prospectin' out of the way let's move onwards and upwards to the "meat" of this post. What the hell does the US sugar quota have to do with the current economic inequality amongst baseball teams? Essentially, sugar can be grown more cheaply in other countries than in the USA. Thus beginning in 1938, the US Congress enacted a quota (limit) on the amount of sugar that could be imported in the United States to "protect" domestic producers/workers. Although this act was well intentioned, the United States simply possesses less than optimal conditions for sugar production (namely climate, but yes our labor force is more expensive to hire as well). A country like Brazil can more easily produce sugar due to climate and their relatively cheaper workforce. Sure, Brazil might have to clear some rainforest or other habitat to accommodate sugar production, but that's a sad consequence of sugar production anywhere as illustrated by the degradation of the everglades by the sugar industry in Florida.

Anyways, this sugar quota means that the cost of this inefficient US sugar production is spread amongst the consumers to the benefit of the few producers of US sugar. Not only do US consumers buy less sugar ("a reduction of the size of the pie" that has moreover increased sugar substitute consumption like high-fructose corn syrup), but consumers are forced to pay a much higher price than the world price for the sugar they do purchase. The producers use lobbyists and campaign contributions to ensure congress keeps sugar restrictions in place.

Phew. Well what does this have to do with baseball you ask? We currently have a economic landscape in baseball that is rigged to benefit a half dozen teams (namely the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Phillies etc.). The few teams that benefit from the current system are like the producers in our sugar analogy. However, the rest and broad majority of baseball teams (the consumers in our sugar analogy) are harmed by the current economic landscape. It's not only the Indians who are forced to trade or lose players to free agency like Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, but the Royals who lost Carlos Beltran and Rockies who lost Matt Holliday. The fact that the large majority of teams are hurt by this decision diminishes the MLB's potential fanbase and revenue due to disenchanted fans losing interest in the game. In effect the current system "reduces the overall size of the pie." Although the MLB has seen an increase in revenues lately, the NFL (and their revenue sharing that allows the tiny Green Bay market to compete with the behemoth New York market) has eclipsed the MLB as the "top dog" in America sports. Thus less baseball is consumed overall, so to speak, than would be if there was more parity and small and mid-market teams could keep more of their homegrown talent. This "reduction of the size of the pie" equates to the reduction in the amount of sugar consumed as a result of the sugar quota opposed to free trade.

There's the breakdown of the current system:

Winners- A couple large market teams (the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Phillies)

Losers- The bottom 22-25 teams (Indians, Twins, Reds, Pirates, Rays etc)

Overall- A net loss (fewer fans because of disenchantment with payroll inequality a "dead weight loss" to speak in economist terms)

To sum it up quickly: the current system benefits a couple of the top teams at the expense of everybody else and the overall advancement of major league baseball. I don't know enough to suggest specific detailed solutions, but there needs to be more revenue sharing for the health of baseball as a sport. Fans are turning away because small and mid-market teams have little to no chance to compete in the current system. These fans see the Yankees and Red Sox with their seemingly limitless payrolls gobble up grossly disproportionate shares of the MLB's talent. The Yankees and Red Sox will protest like the US sugar producers fight the abolition of sugar quota, but it's time for the rest of MLB teams to come together and fight for greater revenue sharing for their own good and the good of all of baseball.

Alex Trebek

Mr. Shapiro's 2009 Trade Scorecard

2009-12-23T12:52:00.000-08:00

I hope everybody is enjoying the holidays and braving the cold. I don't know about you guys, but the I'm ready for some baseball. Two months until spring training, two months until spring training..... With that let's take a stroll down baseball lane and look at Mr. Shapiro's 2009 trades.

Trade #1 (June 28, 2009):

St. Louis Received:

Util Mark DeRosa

Cleveland Received:

RHP Chris Perez

Player to be named later (RHP Jess Todd)

Shapiro marvelously leveraged DeRosa's versatility and hot streak (.799 OPS before trade, .696 OPS after) and got a pair of young righty flamethrowers that ranked as St. Louis' #3 and #4 prospects according to Baseball America. Perez experienced a rocky start and end to his year in Cleveland, but he had a marvelous stretch from July 8-September 5 where he pitched 20.1 scoreless innings and struck out 25. Pretty good for a guy that's not 25 until mid-2010.... he looks like Kerry Wood's incumbent. The lesser part of the deal, Jess Todd, put up an uninspiring 7.66 ERA (4.84 FIP) in his major league debut, but did strikeout 20 in 22.1 IP. With Sowers, Talbot and Grilli competing for the final bullpen spot, Todd will likely get a little more seasoning in AAA to start the season.

Grade: A-/B+

Trades #2, #3, #4, #5:

Indians Trade:

RHP Rafael Betancourt (Colorado)

1B/"OF" Ryan Garko (San Francisco)

RHP Carl Pavano (Minnesota)

C Kelly Shoppach (Tampa Bay)

Indians Receive:

RHP Connor Graham (Colorado)

LHP Scott Barnes (San Francisco)

RHP Yohan Pino (Minnesota)

RHP Mitch Talbot (Tampa Bay)

Even if these trades were just made for salary relief, they'd be worth making. Betancourt and Pavano were type A and B free agents respectively and both accepted arbitration. Thus it would have been too risky to have offered them arb and hoped for draft picks. Garko is ok, but LaPorta is likely much better and even Jordan Brown is similar at a tenth of Garko's arbitration number. Although Shoppach regressed from his superb '08, he's probably at least a league average catcher (his OPS+ the last three seasons: 102, 128, 98). With superstar Carlos Santana posed for a 2010 debut and capable, cheap options in Lou Marson and Wyatt Toregas the Indians had no use for a 3-4 million dollar catcher.

As for the Indians return.... it's pretty bland. Yohan Pino and Mitch Talbot are probably spot starters or maybe long men in the bullpen. It's not bad to have cheap, depth options like them, but Talbot is already out of options and Pino isn't exactly a head turner. According to BA, Barnes ranked as the Giants' 9th best prospect heading into '09 and Graham ranked as Colorado's 12th best prospect. They are both just solid arms with some upside who join the ranks of the likes of Eric Berger, Zach Putnam and Rob Bryson and lend the Indians impressive pitching depth.

Grade: B-/C+

Trade #6 (July 29th, 2009)

Philadelphia Received:

LHP Cliff Lee

OF Ben Francisco

Indians Received:

RHP Carlos Carrasco

RHP Jason Knapp

C Lou Marson

2B/SS Jason Donald

This trade has received its fair share of reactionary bad press. Granted, this deal certainly does not look like a slam dunk at the moment. However, I think it was the best move all things considered. If the Indians had kept Lee, they'd be at best the sixth best team in the AL in 2010 behind the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Angels, Rangers and arguably others (Twins, Mariners and A's). Thus it was the most rational decision to spin Lee for the best return as soon as possible in an attempt to cobble together a winner while Grady is still under contract. It's better to utilize the 13 million or so left on Lee's deal and invest that into drafts/international signings.

Furthermore, I believe Carrasco represented the centerpiece of this trade as alluded to by Shapiro in his interview with Castrovince about "undervalued commodities." Carrasco had FIPs of 4.01 (20 starts) and 2.92 (6 games) and K/BB rates of 2.95 and 5.14 at AAA Reading and Columbus respectively. For pete's sake, he's a 22 year old pitcher with extensive experience at AAA who has a plus fastball and curve and a plus plus changeup. He may have composure problems, but he's got time to mature and an excellent coaching staff to help him out. Jason Knapp has an electric arm, but his youth and injuries concern me. He's a great high-risk, high-reward add to this system nonetheless. Marson appears to be a good bet to be a solid, league average catcher which is more than enough considering he'll back up SuperSantana. Jason Donald had a down year, but at a minimum he should be a good utility man. A decent, if unspectacular return.

Grade: C

Trade #7 (July 31, 2009)

Boston Received:

C Victor Martinez

Cleveland Received:

RHP Justin Masterson

LHP Nick Hagadone

RHP Bryan Price

This trade was personally the most difficult to stomach. Victor's lively and festive personality endeared him to me and he easily was my favorite player. However, this team had no use for a good, but aging C/1B even at a reduced salary. Thus Shapiro pulled the trigger on this deal. It may be hard to remember, but Victor had experienced a dismal July. His .530 OPS in July probably sapped his trade value somewhat, but all things considered Shapiro still managed a commendable return. I love Masterson and think he can become a #3 and perhaps a #2 in the mold of Jake Westbrook (and Bill James agrees). According to BA, Nick Hagadone "projects as either a frontline starter or a dynamic reliever" and this enormous lefty should be on the fast track to Cleveland. Bryan Price is another solid arm to throw on the organizational pile.

Grade: A-

It's always tough to go through a rebuild. Thankfully Shapiro, despite public pressure, did what he had to do to put the Indians in a position to compete in a couple years. Anyways, we shall see.....

Alex Trebek

Mr. Shapiro's 2008 Trade Scorecard

2009-12-12T06:30:00.000-08:00

On a bitter cold, but beautiful Saturday morning in central Ohio let's take a look at Mr. Shapiro's '08-'09 trades. Shapiro made a name for himself through trades, like this one, so it seems like a good starting point. Now while it's a little presumptuous to judge trades only months after the fact, it's fun nonetheless.

Trade (July 7, 2008):

Brewers Acquires:

LHP CC Sabathia

Clevelands Acquires:

1B/LF Matt LaPorta

Player to be named later (OF Michael Brantley)

RHP Rob Bryson

LHP Zach Jackson

Essentially, this deal gave the tribe a top young slugger, a A ball flamethrower with closer potential, a AAAA filler pitcher and a "significant" piece to be determined at the end of the season. LaPorta continued his rapid rise through the system with an excellent '09 contributing a slash line of .299/.388/.530 at AAA and a .254/.308/.442 line in an 181 AB cameo in Cleveland. Kevin Goldstein recently had this to say about LaPorta in his Future Shock Series on the Indians:

"Reviews on LaPorta's bat aren't what they used to be, but they're still good enough to project as an above-average everyday player at first base or left field, and that means a middle-of-the-order run producer."

That still sounds good to me. Anyways, we'll just skip Zach Jackson and head onwards to Rob Bryson. Mr. Bryson, heralded as a potential closer at the time of the deal, hurt his arm and was on the rehab trail most of '09. However, he managed to pitch a little at the end of the season and appears to be making encouraging progress. He's another quality arm with potential that lends this system its' impressive depth. Finally, the player to be named later was as everybody knows Michael Brantley (thankfully not Taylor Green as the Hardball Times article supposed). Although Brantley's numbers on the surface appear uninspiring at AAA (.267/.350/.361 with 46 steals), he was a victim of bad luck (.288 BABIP) and was very young for his level (he turned 22 midseason). Brantley could probably use some more seasoning at AAA, but I believe that he could be a high-OBP speedster that sets the table for the Indians' impending middle-of-the-order quartet (admit it: Sizemore, Santana, Choo, LaPorta, 3-6 is damn exciting). Here's a recent ranking from Project Prospect that had Brantley as the fifth best CF prospect in baseball. Overall, this was a solid trade that infused high-quality talent into the system.

Grade: B

Trade (July 27, 2008):

LA Dodgers Acquire:

3B Casey Blake

Cleveland Acquires:

C Carlos Santana

RHP Jon Meloan

This trade might be one of Shapiro's gems. Shapiro leveraged Blake's high trade value (.830 OPS at the time of the trade) and got a pair of excellent prospects. Meloan, at the time a reliever converted to a starter, looked to still have back of the bullpen potential and Carlos Santana was having a breakout year for the Dodgers' A+ team. Although Meloan fell out of favor with the organization, was subsequently traded and bounced around a couple organizations in '09, Santana is one of the top 10 prospects in baseball. Mr. Goldstein at BP put it this way:

"All of the tools and skills are there for Santana to be a perennial All-Star."

With that I give this trade a Grade A+.

I'll check in sometime soon to review the 2009 trades, but for now I need to survive this December cold and survive a week of finals. Thanks for stopping by!

Your pal,

Alex Trebek

The 2012 Playoffs-The World Series

2009-11-27T09:46:00.000-08:00

The 2012 ALDS can be found here.

The 2012 ALCS can be found here.

The Indians rolled into Citizens Bank Park to face the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2012 World Series. Earlier in the year the National League had won their first All-Star game that "counted" for home field advantage in the World Series. The Indians were just happy to have finally made it to the World Series for the first time in 15 years in search of their first championship since 1948.

The Lineups:

Cleveland

LF- Michael Brantley

CF- Grady Sizemore

C- Carlos Santana

1B- Matt LaPorta

RF- Shin-Soo Choo

DH- Manny Ramirez (R)/ Nick Weglarz (L) [at Cleveland only]

SS- Asdrubal Cabrera

3B- Lonnie Chisenhall

2B- Luis Valbuena (L)/ Jason Donald (R)

Philadelphia:

SS- Jimmy Rollins

RF- Dominic Brown

2B- Chase Utley

1B- Ryan Howard

3B- Adrian Beltre

CF- Shane Victorino

DH- Ben Francisco [at Cleveland only]

LF- Michael Taylor

C- Carlos Ruiz

Game 1:

Hector Rondon faced Cole Hamels in a struggle of aces. Both established a quick tempo against the respective lineups. With the game scoreless in the 4th, Carlos Santana roped a solo home run to give the tribe an early advantage. Both aces battled through the middle innings keeping the score constant at 1-0 going into the 8th. In the top of the 8th JA Happ relieved Hamels after the starter walked Matt LaPorta to start the inning and pinch hitter Manny Ramirez doubled putting runners at 2nd and 3rd. Asdrubal Cabrera nailed Happ's first offering into the stands to give the tribe a 4-0 advantage that they would not yield.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E

CLE 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 = 4 8 1

PHI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 = 1 7 1

Notables:

CLE Asdrubal Cabrera 1-4 3-run HR

PHI Ben Francisco 2-4 2 2B, RBI

Game 2: (CLE 1-0)

Carlos Carrasco faced the man he was traded for, Cliff Lee. The Indians got to Lee early and often. Matt LaPorta cracked a grand slam in the 1st and Lonnie Chisenhall added a solo homer in the 2nd to give the Indians a quick 5-0 advantage. Lee was done after 4 after he gave up a pair of RBI doubles to Matt LaPorta and Shin Soo Choo to stretch the Indians' lead to 7-1. Carrasco was erratic at times and surrendered 5 walks, but he struggled through 6 innings giving up only 2 runs. The Indians cruised to a 10-4 victory.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E

CLE 4 1 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 = 10 15 0

PHI 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 = 4 7 1

Notables:

Matt LaPorta 2-3, HR, 2B, 5 RBI, 2BB

Michael Taylor 2-4 2RBI

Game 3: (CLE 2-0)

A pair of young guns faced off in Game 3 at Progressive Field with lefty TJ House facing righty Kyle Drabek. The Indians jumped out to an early lead with Brantley lining the first pitch he saw into the gap to start the first and Grady Sizemore depositing a 2-1 fastball into the visitors dugout to give the tribe a 2-0 lead. Ryan Howard jacked a TJ House offering into "Pronkville" to tie the game at 2 in the fourth. The teams traded jabs and game stood tied 4-4 heading into the seventh. After a one out walk to Jimmy Rollins, Manny Acta called on Nick Hagadone to hold the lead in the 7th. Rollins swiped second on Hagadone's first pitch and the flame-throwing lefty fell behind Brown 3-1. Brown cracked the next pitch into the left field corner and Rollins scored. Brown got gunned down trying to stretch the double into a triple. 5-4 Philadelphia mid 7th. In relief of Drabek, Joe Blanton hung a breaking pitch that Matt LaPorta drilled off the left center wall. JA Happ did not do much better yielding consecutive singles to Shin-Soo Choo and pinch hitter Manny Ramirez. With runners on the corners and the game tied Charlie Manuel, who'd survived his 3rd heart attack in August, called on closer Ryan Madson to preserve the tie. He failed and Asdrubal Cabrera hit a sac fly to score Choo.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E

PHI 0 0 0 2 0 2 1 0 0 = 5 7 0

CLE 2 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 = 6 9 1

Notables:

CLE: Grady Sizemore 1-4 3RBI

PHI: Ryan Howard 2-4 2HR, 2RBI

Game 4: (CLE 3-0)

One game. One game. Those are the words that resonated through the brains of Cleveland Indians fans. The Indians now had four shots at the championship, but after a promising start to the game things turned sour for the Erie Warriors. Justin Masterson retired the Phillies on 8 pitches in the top of the 1st. Carlos Santana lined a single that scored Michael Brantley in the bottom of the first, but rounding 1st base Santana's left knee buckled and he collapsed to the ground in obvious pain. Lou Marson replaced Santana, but the oxygen was sucked out of Progressive Field and the Indians fell 5-1.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E

PHI 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 = 5 12 0

CLE 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 = 1 6 1

Notables:

CLE Justin Masterson 6.0 IP 8H, 4ER, BB, 4K's

PHI Cole Hamels CG, 6H, ER, 10K's

Game 5 (CLE 3-1)

In their last chance to bring home a championship on their home field, the Indians received the devastating news that Carlos Santana would be out for Game 5 and likely the rest of the series. The heart of the Indians who'd hit .317 with 28 HR and 113 RBI watched from the dugout as Chase Utley racked up 6RBI and Cliff Lee tossed a gem in an easy 9-2 Phillies victory. Manny Acta, irate at a bang-bang call at first, was ejected in the 8th and the Indians looked listless and soulless throughout.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E

PHI 3 0 2 3 0 0 1 0 0 = 9 16 1

CLE 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 = 2 7 0

Notables:

Hector Rondon 3IP+ 10H, 7ER, BB, 2K's

Chase Utley 4-5 3 2B, 6RBI

Game 6 (CLE 3-2)

A shocked and dejected Indians team boarded the team plane and headed to Philadelphia. The momentum had shifted to the Phillies and the Indians were left to regroup and wonder if Cleveland was forever doomed to failure. The team looked hopelessly splintered and step-up man Zach Putnam did not make the flight to Philadelphia after he got in a bar fight with a Phillies fan after Game 5.

Grady Sizemore stood up in the locker room before the game and simply stated: "It's time to nut up or shut up." It was as if the haze of the previous few miserable days had been lifted and the team took the field behind Carlos Carrasco. After the Indians were retired in the top of the 1st without scoring, a focused Carrasco struck out the side of Phillies utilizing his devastating changeup. Drabek and Carrasco dueled through the next 4 innings and the game remained scoreless. Carrasco appeared calm and composed on the mound working off of an excellent fastball, curveball, changeup combination. Carrasco singled to start the top of the 6th and came around to score on a Grady Sizemore double to give the tribe a 1-0 advantage. Carrasco cruised through the bottom of the sixth, but after the tribe came up empty in the top of the 7th Ryan Howard blasted a towering solo homer to tie the game. Sensing trouble Manny Acta sprinted out to the mound and got Alex White up in the bullpen. Carrasco reassured Acta and knucked down to retire the next three guys in a row. The score was tied at 1 after 7 innings. Nobody scored in the 8th. To start the 9th Matt LaPorta doubled off reliever JA Happ, but the left handed reliever got Choo and Chisenhall to ground out before he surrendered a walk to Jason Donald. Instead of Lou Marson, Carlos Santana limped out to the plate. Ryan Madson relieved Happ. Madson attacked him, getting ahead 1-2 before Santana watched two balls outside to make the count full. Madson jammed Santana inside on the next pitch, who blooped it into right center field over the head of Chase Utley for a single. Pinch runner Luis Valbuena raced around third and beat the throw home, 2-1 Indians. Manny Acta called to the pen for the bottom of the 9th and summoned All-Star Chris Perez. The closer got Jimmy Rollins to ground out to start the inning and Dominic Brown went down on strikes, but Chase Utley singled to give the Phillies a glimmer of home. Ryan Howard took a rip at Perez's first pitch and sent a high towering fly ball about 95 feet into Asdrubal Cabrera's outstretched glove. THE INDIANS WIN IT, OH MY GOD, THE INDIANS WIN IT!

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E

CLE 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 = 2 7 0

PHI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 = 1 5 1

Notables:

Carlos Carrasco 8.0IP, 4H, ER, 2BB, 11K's

Ryan Howard 1-4 HR, RBI

World Series MVP: Carlos Carrasco 2-0 14.0IP, 9H, 3ER, 7BB, 18K's

Rosterin' and Prospectin': A Look at the Tribe's 40 man and Farm System

2009-11-21T10:58:00.001-08:00

Ka-Ching, I'm on Thanksgiving Break. A whole week of reading, relaxing and seeing some old friends back home. Sadly the first big piece of news to hit is that Omar Vizquel is close to signing with the White Sox. I wish Omar the best, but couldn't he have picked another franchise? I believe I'm in the majority when I say that the White Sox are my least favorite AL Central franchise. Why couldn't Omar have come to help tutor Asdrubal and Luis in their middle infield adventures? Sandy came back to help Carlos and Lou.....

Anyways, let's start with the big news of the week: the 40 man roster. Tony did his normal superb job in reviewing the moves the tribe made with their roster. Nobody was removed, although if I was Chris Gimenez, Wyatt Toregas or Anthony Reyes, I wouldn't get too comfortable. I'm glad the Indians didn't roster any of the numerous back-end starters/middle relievers that aren't necessarily major league ready. Guys like Yohan Pino, Chuck Lofgren, Josh Tomlin, Steven Wright and Ryan Edell are nice depth options, but they don't warrant a roster spot if they're blocking guys with more potential and upside.

While fact that Jordan Brown, Nick Weglarz, Jason Donald and Jeanmar Gomez were rostered comes as no surprise, the other three new members of the 40 man are questionable. Let's start with Kelvin de la Cruz. Baseball America ranked de la Cruz as the Indians' seventh best prospect coming into 2009 noting:

"De la Cruz now sits at 89-92 mph and touches 93-94 with his four-seam fastball. He's still growing and getting stronger, so he could add more velocity. His best pitch is his 75-77 mph curveball, which has two-plane depth and neutralizes lefties and righties. He also mixes in a two-seam fastball with good sink and a changeup that shows promise.... De la Cruz again will be one of the high Class A Carolina League's youngest pitchers in 2009. How quickly he can make the necessary mechanical adjustments will dictate the speed of his ascent."

Although de la Cruz battled injuries and could only make 5 starts in '09, his talent is undeniable. His option clock is ticking and the Indians are betting he's big league ready by 2012 or at the very latest the beginning of '13, but I believe that's a risk they have to take considering this guy's talent.

The Indians also decided to roster young shortstop Carlos Rivero. Rivero spent his 2009 season in Akron and I remember going to an Aeros game at the end of June and saw that his average was hovering right around the Mendoza Line. However, Rivero flashed his talent in the second half of the season (.280 BA, .797 OPS) and at the AFL (.318 BA, .859 OPS in 22G). With another hat tip to Tony for those stats, let's turn to what BA had to say about him in '09 handbook:

"Rivero has plus power that's evident in batting practice, though that power has yet to manifest itself in games with much frequency. As his frame continues to fill out, his power should continue to grow. He has a sound swing that generates plenty of bat speed, and he is a good athlete. Defensively, he offers soft hands and a strong arm. While Rivero has the tools, the gap between his potential and his present ability is still significant. He struggles to recognize breaking pitches, and he needs to get his hands into a better load position. He has the arm for shortstop, but 16 of his 24 errors last season came on throws. He's a below average runner with below-average lateral range, and scouts from other club officials believe he could become another Jhonny Peralta."

The problem with Rivero, as noted in BA's piece, is that although he's got the raw tools..... he's still a long way from putting everything together. Rivero turns 22 next May and he'll likely need at least another year at AA and probably another year at AAA. With his option clock ticking, this puts the tribe in a hard place if he continues his slow development. Still it's hard to expose talent like this.....

Finally, we come to Wes Hodges. Hodges was a 2nd round pick out of Georgia Tech in '06 and posted good lines of .288/.367/.473 in '07 at Kinston and .290/.354/.466 in '08 at Akron. However, the knock on Hodges is his defense and as BA noted:

"[Hodges] committed 28 errors in 125 games at third base with Akron, then eight more in 22 AFL games."

Although Hodges represents a right handed bat option for the predominantly left handed Indians lineup, his atrocious fielding proceeds him. When you're projected starting rotation is Jake Westbrook, Justin Masterson, Aaron Laffey, David Huff and Fausto Carmona/Carlos Carrasco, all of whom are very young or sinkerballers, you want a good defensive 3B. On top of that, the two guys ahead of Hodges, Peralta and Marte, are both right handers themselves. Hodges injury concerns and his .265/.307/.383 line in 359 PA at AAA last year as a 25 year old makes we wish the tribe had protected Matt McBride instead.

I know Matt McBride had a pedestrian slash line of .247/.301/.427 in 406 PA at Akron this year after his monster start at Kinston (.405/.453/.667 in 139 PA), but he's rebounded at the AFL and has put up an unbelievable line of .378/.511/.649 line there in 22 games. He has versatility and can catch (although Santana appears to have that covered), play third and the corner outfield. Here's what John Sickels had to say about him after seeing him at the AFL.

"I like McBride quite a bit as a sleeper. He won’t be a gold glove catcher but he’s not terrible, and his bat has a lot of potential if he can show some improved plate discipline at higher levels."

McBride just seems too valuable to expose especially considering Hodges' faults.

Anyways onwards and upwards to Kevin Goldstein's top 11 Indians prospects (with 4 bonus prospects). If you don't have a Baseball Prospectus subscription, I strongly recommended it. You won't get better in-depth baseball commentary anywhere else.

Five-Star Prospects
1. Carlos Santana, C
Four-Star Prospects
2. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B
3. Alex White, RHP
4. Jason Knapp, RHP
5. Nick Hagadone, LHP
Three-Star Prospects
6. Hector Rondon, RHP
7. Lou Marson, C
8. Jason Kipnis, OF/2B
9. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
10. Michael Brantley, OF
11. Zach Putnam, RHP

Four More:

12. Jess Todd, RHP

13. Nick Weglarz, OF/1B

14. TJ House, LHP

15. Jason Donald, SS

Anyways, Goldstein agrees with about everybody else in the prospect watching community that Carlos Santana is an elite prospect. Project Prospect ranked him as the SECOND best position prospect in baseball at the end of the MiLB season. Goldstein says this about the gem of the Casey Blake trade:

"Santana's bat is so special that if he was a first-base prospect, he'd still be elite. His approach is big league-ready, as he never swings at a bad pitch. As one scout put it, "When he does finally swing, special things tend to happen." His power is plus to plus-plus to all fields, and for a player with his strength, he maintains an outstanding contact rate. He's a solid defender with above-average arm strength."

Sounds pretty damn good to me. He looks a little like Victor Marintez, v.2, bigger, faster, stronger.... though I hope I didn't just jinx him. I can't wait to see him in the big leagues midseason (around the Super Two cutoff).

Goldstein was also high on Chisenhall and admitted in his chat that he almost placed him in the "Five Star Prospect" category. His projection of Chisenhall (membership required) states:

"If he continues to develop, look for Chisenhall to be a .300-hitting third baseman with 20-25 home runs annually"

Sounds good to me.

However, after Santana and Chisenhall, Goldstein's list is surprising. Goldstein favors high upside guys over surer things closer to the big leagues. There's no doubt that Alex White, Jason Knapp and Nick Hagadone are all supremely talented, but I think its a stretch that they're all ranked above Hector Rondon. The Venezuelan righty just completed a marvelous season and is just a stone's throw away from the big leagues going into his age 22 season (2009: Rondon at AA-2.51 FIP, 4.56 K/BB in 15G, at AAA-3.56 FIP, 4.92 K/BB in 13G). Goldstein admitted Rondon was close to a four star prospect in the comment section and stated in his assessment: "He projects as a good third starter with some room for growth." I guess I might be biased by my Indians loyalty, but I think Rondon has top-of-the-rotation potential (and Project Prospect agrees-if you check out the chat replay)

Goldstein isn't a Weglarz fan and left Alexander Perez and Jeanmar Gomez completely off the list. However, the exclusion of Perez and Gomez should be viewed more as a compliment to the system's incredible depth than anything else.

Anywho, I trust most you guys have already seen Manny Acta's interview with Les Levine. I don't know about you guys, but Acta's radiant personality is a breath of fresh air after Eric Wedge and Charlie Manuel. I can't wait to see this guy in action...

Take it easy,

Alex Trebek

A Team of Rivals

2009-11-17T17:58:00.001-08:00

At the moment I'm consumed by 4 papers that are all due Friday. Hell of a way to spend the week before thanksgiving break... especially since I checked out around Halloween. I've got papers on the movie Sonnenallee (to be written in German), the interaction between the Mongol Rulers of China and Persia respectively in the 13th century (actually two relatively short papers summarizing two different sources) and finally a good old 6 pager for Early Modern Europe about the changing conception of property during the 17th century. If you have any ideas send them to me by Friday. :)

Anyways... enough grumbling.... time to talk a little baseball. I've already commended the Indians for their hire of Manny Acta. Acta and the Indians have complied what appears to be a diverse group of articulate, well-respected individuals to staff the coaching spots around the diamond.

Here's how it stands:
Manager: Manny Acta
Bench Coach: Tim Tolman (good to see Acta get "one of his guys" on his staff)
Pitching Coach: Tim Belcher (not sure about this hire, but I trust Acta's judgment)
Hitting Coach: ?
Bullpen Coach: Scott Radinsky (he should have replaced Chuck Hernandez here around the end of April)
3rd Base Coach: Steve Smith (good write up on him here: http://www.blogcatalog.com/blog/the-tribe-daily)
1st Base Coach: Sandy Alomar (so well liked that the trolls on cleveland.com had positive things to say)

I'll have more analysis at the end of the week. With Kevin Goldstein's top 11 Indians prospects coming out soon and the 40 man roster deadline... we should have a nice weekend of Indians baseball news on our hands.

Keep it classy,
Alex Trebek

The Pen Plan

2009-11-14T18:37:00.000-08:00

I’m in the midst of a bunch of papers and whatnot before Thanksgiving Break, so I’ll wait a week before I complete the World Series portion of the “2012 Playoffs.” Anyways, the offseason is still slow and since the Indians don’t look to pull off any major moves anyways, let’s take a look at the tribe’s 2010 relief corps.

Bullpen Spot Secure:

RHP Kerry Wood- Wood was a serviceable closer last year, but he was nowhere near worth 10 million especially on a cash-strapped team like the Indians. The market is flush with closers this offseason and the Indians likely wouldn’t get anything prospect-wise for the Texas flamethrower and would have to eat a significant portion of his 10.5 million dollar contract (his 11 million dollar 2011 vesting option doesn’t help). Worse case scenario: he pitches bad this year and the Indians don’t allow his option to vest. Best case scenario: he pitches well and the tribe can trade him to a contender in need of bullpen help for a nice prospect and salary relief. If he’s on the Indians’ roster after July 31st, the Indians won’t let his 2011 option vest (unless in the unlikely event the Indians are in contention).

RHP Chris Perez- Perhaps Shapiro’s best deal of last year’s firesale was prying Chris Perez and Jess Todd away from the St. Louis Cardinals for super utilityman Mark DeRosa. Here’s what Baseball America had to say about him in this year’s handbook:

“Perez has a wicked fastball… He can throw it consistently at 95 mph and dial it up to 97-98 when necessary. His fastball has natural sink and he offsets it with a biting slider than hums in the high-80s… Command and inexperience continue to block Perez from being dubbed St. Louis’ (Cleveland’s) closer.”

Sign me up. Perez flashed his promise during his hot-streak in August, but was humbled by a rocky September. Perez looks to be Kerry Wood’s likely successor.

LHP Tony Sipp- Sipp is the tribe’s most promising left-handed reliever, well since Rafael Perez fell apart. To get anything out of a 45th round draft pick is a bonus, much less a possible late-inning left hander. Sipp’s sported an outstanding 10.80 K/9 rate, but his 5.63 BB/9 rate leaves something to be desired. Hopefully he’ll avoid imploding like so many of the Indians’ homegrown relievers…..

Likely Bullpen Arms:

RHP Jensen Lewis- Although Jensen wasn’t a complete disaster in ’09, he came nowhere near the promise he held after his excellent closer cameo at the end of ’08. In April it seemed like he was blowing every other game, but he retained a decent K rate (8.41 K/9) and could still be an effective mid-innings reliever.

LHP Rafael Perez- Oh, Rafael….. Although, Raffy Perez looks to get another chance in ’10 and Bill James published a bullish projection, one must wonder if Perez will go down as another Fernando Cabrera for a nice start to his career, but atrocious continuation. He had absolutely no control in ’09 although his 4.81 FIP was nowhere near as bad as his 7.31 ERA. Anyways, he’s not dead yet….

RHP Joe Smith- Mr. Smith, the famed ROOGY obtained from the Mets in the Franklin Gutierrez swap, was fairly bland in his Indians debut. Smith was decent, if not great, when he was healthy in ’09. Should be a solid, 6-7 inning matchup guy if he can stay healthy.

Contenders for the last bullpen spot:

I’m operating under the assumption that the tribe will carry 7 relievers given the unstable nature of their young pitching staff.

LHP Jeremy Sowers- Everybody knows Sowers. The former first round pick in ’04, he shot through the minors, putting up very impressive numbers. He flashed his promise in a ’06 callup going 7-4 with a 3.57ERA. However, since his nice debut Sowers has been somewhere between mediocre and bad. Sowers often starts games strong, but falters in the mid-innings meaning that he could be prime for a long guy out of the bullpen… especially considering that the rotation has lots of question marks. Sowers had a decent 4.77 FIP in 22 starts in 2009, but an awful BB/K ratio concerns me and leads me to believe that he’s bullpen bound (0.98, 52 BB and 51 K’s). Fun fact: Sowers has only picked up 10 wins in his 57 starts since 2007.

RHP Jess Todd- Todd was roughed up in his first taste of MLB action, but he shows promise as a middle innings relief, perhaps as an 8th inning guy if he realizes his potential. From the 2009 BA Handbook:

“Todd augments an attack dog mentality with tremendous control of three pitches- the cutter, an 88-91 MPH sinker and a tight slider… to some, Todd profiles as a reliever because there’s a lingering concern his frame isn’t built to handle the grind and innings of the long big league season. His repertoire also may be better suited for the bullpen until he refines a reliable changeup.”

Todd has promise, but a little time in AAA certainly wouldn’t hurt….

RHP Jose Veras- Veras a cast-off courtesy of the Yankees. He seems to have a nice arm and could be a solid addition to this bullpen…. Decent 2008 numbers offer some hope (3.59 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 9.83 K/9)

There you go…. Bullpens are simply volatile. Case in point: I thought the tribe would sport one of the best pens going into ’08 and ’09, but well you know….. Hopefully, at least regression to the mean will be on the tribe’s side next year. Anyways, now you have something to think about while you’re enjoying this wonderful weather!

Alex Trebek

The 2012 Playoffs-ALCS

2009-11-09T12:00:00.000-08:00

The last week has been busy on my hill here in Ohio. Once we hit Thanksgiving Break/Christmas Break I'll make sure to post more frequently and the rampant offseason speculation will commence in full force. With that let's take a look at our ALCS matchup of the Cleveland Indians against the Boston Red Sox.

As the Indians took care of the Yankees, the Red Sox owned the heavily favored Texas Rangers. The Sox swept the Rangers straight out of the playoffs. The BoSox came to Progressive Field for a rematch of the 2007 ALCS against the Cleveland Indians.

Boston Lineup:
CF Jacoby Ellsbury
2B Dustin Pedroia
3B Kevin Youkilis
1B Prince Fielder
RF Jason Bay
DH Victor Martinez
LF Josh Reddick
C Kelly Shoppach
SS Marco Scutaro

Cleveland Lineup:
LF Michael Brantley
CF Grady Sizemore
C Carlos Santana
1B Matt LaPorta
RF Shin Soo Choo
DH R Manny Ramirez/L Nick Weglarz (platoon)
SS Asdrubal Cabrera
3B Lonnie Chisenhall
2B L Luis Valbuena/ R Jason Donald (platoon)

Game 1

Hector Rondon and Josh Beckett battled each other in an epic ALCS Game 1 struggle. After a leadoff double to Jacoby Ellsbury, Rondon struck out the next three batters and settled in retiring 13 of the next 14 batters. Beckett was just as hard to hit with a pair of weak singles from Carlos Santana and Lonnie Chisenhall representing the only two baserunners he allowed through the first six innings. Rondon recorded his eleventh strikeout when he got Prince Fielder to swing and miss to start the 7th, but then he walked Jason Bay. His next batter, Victor Martinez, crushed a pitch into the alley for a double. Bay had to stay at 3rd because of an excellent relay from Shin Soo Choo. Rondon struck out Josh Reddick on 3 pitches and looked to have strikeout 13 against former Indian Kelly Shoppach after he painted the outside corner on a 1-2 count against the catcher. However, the umpire didn't agree and Shoppach blasted a 3 run homer on the next pitch. Steve Phillips, doing commentary for TBS shortly after his release from prison for tax evasion, called the 3 run homer "crucial" after the game.

Box 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
BOS 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0=3 7 0
CLE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0=0 3 1

Notables:
Rondon 7.0IP 5H, 3 ER, BB, 12K's
Beckett CG, 3H, BB, 8K's

Game 2 (1-0 BOS)

Jacoby Ellsbury pulled Carlos Carrasco's first pitch of the game over the right field wall. However, instead of imploding, Carrasco settled in and pitched a strong 6 2/3 innings only yielding one more run. Grady Sizemore lit John Lester up, ripping three hits including 2 home runs in Lester's 5 innings of work. After a Michael Brantley single to start the game, Sizemore nailed a Lester fastball into the right field mezzanine. In the 3rd, Sizemore launched an opposite field solo shot and drilled an RBI single in his final AB against Lester in the 5th. Although Carrasco departed the game with a 5-2 cushion, Alex White gave up a 2 run double to Victor Martinez in the top of the 8th to cut the lead to one. However, in the bottom of the 8th Manny Ramirez nailed a 2 run double against Junichi Tanzawa to give the Indians their final margin 7-4.

Box 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
BOS 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0=4 8 0
CLE 2 0 2 0 1 0 0 2 x=7 12 1

Notables
CLE Grady Sizemore 3-5, 2HR, 4 RBI
BOS Victor Martinez 2-4 2B, 2 RBI

Game 3 (Series Tied 1-1)

Upon the series' shift to Fenway, the Indians and Red Sox traded runs through the first 5 frames. In the first, Sizemore nailed his 3rd homer of the series, a solo opposite field shot over the monster, but Jason Bay responded with an RBI single in the bottom of the first off TJ House. Carlos Santana gave the Indians a short lived lead when he drove in 2 on a groundball single up the middle in the 3rd. However, the Sox responded with single runs in the 4th and 5th to tie the game at 3. Nobody scored in the 6th, 7th or 8th and the Red Sox turned to closer Daniel Bard in the 9th to preserve the tie into the bottom half the frame. Bard walked Valbuena, struck out Brantley and then issued another walk to Sizemore. After falling behind 2-0 to Carlos Santana he induced a clutch fly out. With runners on first and second and 2 outs, he got ahead of Matt LaPorta 1-2. Matt LaPorta hit a 99 MPH Daniel Bard fastball right at 3rd basemen Kevin Youkilis. Youkilis bobbled the ball and unable to go to third slung the ball over first basemen Victor Martinez's head and into the stands, Valbuena raced home and gave the tribe a 4-3 advantage that Chris Perez locked down on only 8 pitches in the 9th.

Box 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
CLE 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1=4 8 0
BOS 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0=3 11 2

Notables:
BOS Clay Buchholz 7IP, 6H, 3ER, 3BB, 3K's
CLE Carlos Santana 1-4, BB, 2 RBI

Game 4 (CLE 2-1)

The Red Sox gave a warm welcome to former teammate Justin Masterson. Prince Fielder crushed a 456-foot 3 run homer in the bottom of the first and Masterson only lasted 2+ in a Boston blowout. Aaron Laffey pitched 5 strong in relief and the Indians had a rally in the 7th, but it was Boston's game from start to finish. Rookie Casey Kelly pitched 6.2 strong innings for the Red Sox.

Box 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
CLE 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0=3 10 1
BOS 4 0 4 0 0 0 1 0 x=9 13 0

Notables:
BOS Prince Fielder 2-3 2BB, 2B, HR, 5 RBI
CLE Nick Weglarz 2-4 2B, 2 RBI

Game 5 (Tied 2-2)

Hector Rondon and Josh Beckett dueled again in Game 5. The game was scoreless until the 5th, when Lonnie Chisenhall knocked in Asdrubal Cabrera on a sac fly to make it 1-0 Cleveland. Rondon continued his dominance setting down all 6 batters he faced in the 6th and 7th, 4 on strikeouts. Beckett matched him keeping the game at 1-0 mid 8th. With one down in the 8th, Jacoby Ellsbury ripped a double into left. After a Dustin Pedroia walk, Manny Acta called on Alex White to perserve the lead. White and Youkilis battled for 9 pitches before Youkilis drilled a ball off the monster plating Ellsbury and Pedroia. Tony Sipp relieved White and got the Indians out of the inning without further damage. However, Boston lead 2-1 going into the 9th. The Indians loaded the bases with one out in the top of the 9th and Terry Francona pulled Beckett for Bard. Bard struckout Grady Sizemore and Carlos Santana popped out ending the Indians threat.

Box 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
CLE 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0=1 7 0
BOS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 x=2 5 0

Notables:
CLE Rondon 7.1IP 4H, 2ER, 2BB, 8K's
BOS Youkilis 1-4 2B, 2 RBI

Game 6 (BOS 3-2)

The series shifted back to Cleveland and the Indians turned to Carlos Carrasco for this do or die game. In three seasons with the tribe Carrasco had shown brillance at times (8-2 2.65 ERA after the all star break in '12), but had performed miserably at other times (3-10 5.80 ERA in 2010). He didn't have his best stuff for game 6, but managed to keep his emotions in check. After the Sox loaded the bases in the first, Carrasco escaped harm with a double play ball. In the fourth, after a Prince Fielder leadoff homer and a double to Jason Bay, the venezuelan native induced three straight harmless ground balls. The Indians hitters had their share of missed opportunities. Having already scored a run in the second and with runners on the corners Lonnie Chisenhall dribbled into an inning ending double play. Carrasco and Lester both lasted six and the game stood tied at 3 going into the 7th. Zach Putnam pitched scoreless innings in the seventh and eighth, but the Indians were similarly baffled by Boston's relievers. Nick Hagadone and then Chris Perez ran into trouble in the 9th, but the the Red Sox were unable to capitalize with the bases loaded and two outs. The bullpens further battled through scoreless 10th, 11th and 12th innings. After Jess Todd set the Red Sox down in the top of the 13th, Shin Soo Choo stepped up to the plate against Boston lefty Hideki Okajima. On a 1-1 count Choo blasted a line drive that drilled the right field foul pole. Indians win 4-3.

Box 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 R H E
BOS 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 = 3 13 2
CLE 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 = 4 10 0

Notables:
CLE Shin Soo Choo 2-6 2B, HR 2 RBI
BOS John Lester 6.0IP 5H, 3ER, 4BB, 5K's

Game 7 (Tied 3-3)

The Indians got to Clay Buchholz for four runs in the first three innings. After Buchholz walked Luis Valbuena to start the 4th, Francona pulled him in favor of Tazawa. The Japanese righty shut the tribe down pitching 4 scoreless. On the Indians side, rookie TJ House glided through the first 5 innings without allowing a run. House coughed up a pair in the sixth, but limited the damage. After a scoreless seventh courtesy of Alex White, Prince Fielder crushed a Nick Hagadone delivery in the right field stands to cut the Indians lead to 4-3 mid 8th. WIth one down in the bottom of the 8th, Asdrubal Cabrera roped a triple into the right field corner and Tazawa was done. The Red Sox called on Daniel Bard, who struck out Lonnie Chisenhall before Luis Valbuena roped a single between first and third to plate Cabrera. Michael Brantley nailed a 2-0 Bard pitch into the right center alley that scored Valbuena. Brantley was able to advance to third on the throw home. A visibly shaken Daniel Bard fell behind Sizemore 3-1 before the MVP runner-up yanked a 2 run homer into the visitors' bullpen. The Indians put on their beer goggles and excitedly watched as Chris Perez shut the Sox down 1-2-3 and gave the Indians their first pennant in 15 years and an 8-3 victory.

Box 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
BOS 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0= 3 8 1
CLE 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 4 x= 8 11 0

Notables:
CLE Grady Sizemore 2-5 HR, 3 RBI, SB
BOS Clay Buchholz 3.0+IP, 6H, 4ER, 3BB, K

ALCS MVP: Grady Sizemore BA .448 (13-29), 4HR, 11RBI, 3SB

Alex Trebek

The 2012 Playoffs-The ALDS

2009-10-30T16:00:00.000-07:00

As the 2009 season drags ever onward (Spring Training started 8 and a half months ago on February 12th!), I decided I'd take a look ahead at the 2012 playoffs and what to expect (well hope to expect). It beats watching all those ex-Indians excel in the playoffs.....

Coming off a strong 95 win season, the Cleveland Indians won the AL Central by a robust 9 games and captured the two seed in the playoffs. Their opponent: the AL East-winning Yankees and winners of 92 games, having edged out the Red Sox for the AL East crown by a game. The fourth seeded Red Sox played the first seeded Texas Rangers, winners of 105 games.

Game 1 of the ALDS (New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians)

Cleveland's Lineup:
LF-L Michael Brantley
CF-L Grady Sizemore
C-S Carlos Santana
1B-R Matt LaPorta
RF-L Shin Soo Choo
DH-R Manny Ramirez
SS-S Asdrubal Cabrera
3B-L Lonnie Chisenhall
2B-R Jason Donald

RHP Hector Rondon

New York's Lineup:
CF Austin Jackson
2B Robinson Cano
1B Mark Texieria
RF Matt Holliday
C Jesus Montero
3B Alex Rodriguez
DH Nick Swisher
SS Stephan Drew
LF Derek Jeter

LHP CC Sabathia

Game 1 Summary:
The game started out well for the tribe as Michael Brantley walked, stole second, advanced to third on a ground out by Grady Sizemore and scored on a Carlos Santana sac fly. Manny Ramirez, who signed a 1 year 4 million dollar deal over the offseason to give the prominently left-handed lineup some balance and spell the oft-injured Travis Hafner, made it 2-0 tribe on a towering solo homer in the second. However, CC Sabathia handled the Indians from there, allowing just two more hits and a walk the rest of the game. Hector Rondon was roughed up allowing 5 runs over 5.1IP including 5BB. Despite a terrible, injury-filled season (.257, 14 HR), Alex Rodriguez went 3-5 with a double, homer and 3 RBI.

Box 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
NYY 0 0 2 1 0 3 1 0 0 = 7 12 0
CLE 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 = 2 4 1

Noteables: NYY Sabathia CG, 4 H, 2ER, BB, 9 K's
CLE Ramirez 1-3 HR, RBI

Game 2:
The Yankees used the exact same lineup and turned to free agent pickup Matt Cain (14-8 3.78 ERA) for game 2. The Indians turned to Carlos Carrasco and used the same lineup except young Nick Weglarz (who was called up following a shoulder injury to Hafner in July) got the call at DH instead of Ramirez and left handed hitting Luis Valbuena replaced Jason Donald.

Mark Texieria welcomed Carlos Carrasco to his first postseason with a 2 run shot in the first and Austin Jackson's two run double in the second made it 4-0 Yankees early. Matt Cain was perfect through 4 1/3 innings, but ran into trouble in the 5th when Shin-Soo Choo rocketed a solo homer to destroy his perfect game, no hitter and shutout. Cain surrendered hits to Weglarz and Cabrera before Lonnie Chisenhall roped a 2 run double into the right field corner making the score 4-3 Yankees. Carrasco was yanked after 5 and the Indians bullpen held it a one run game until the 9th. The Yankees closer Phil Hughes was almost perfect through the season converting 46 of 48 save opportunities and had the Indians down to their last out before Luis Valbuena rocked a 2B into the right center alley to plate Asdrubal Cabrera. In the 10th, Joba Chamberlain struck out
Grady Sizemore to begin the inning, but walked Santana and LaPorta before giving up a game winning single to Shin Soo Choo. Indians win 5-4.

Box 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 R H E
NYY 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0=4 12 0
CLE 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 1=5 10 0

Notables: NYY Texieria 1-3 2 BB, HR, 2RBI
CLE Choo 3-5 HR, 2 RBI

Game 3
AJ Burnett toed the rubber for the Yankees for only 3+ innings allowing 6 runs and 5 walks. A bases loaded 3-run double by Carlos Santana finished him with no outs in the 4th. Rookie of the Year TJ House pitched 5 strong before running into trouble in the 6th inning. With one out, House gave up gave up consecutive doubles to Mark Texieria and Matt Holliday and would be yanked after he issued a walk to Jesus Montero. In relief of House, Zach Putnam struck out Alex Rodriguez, but gave up a 3 run homer to Nick Swisher to cut the lead to 6-5 Indians. In the 7th, the tribe's bullpen ran into further trouble as Jess Todd and Tony Sipp coughed up 2 runs to get the Yankees a 7-6 lead. Bobby Jenks, who'd thrown a perfect 7th for the bronx bombers, ran into trouble in the 8th issuing walks to Luis Valbuena and Michael Brantley before Grady Sizemore connected on a double into the right field corner. Valbuena easily scored, but a terrific relay throw from Robinson Cano gunned Brantley down at the plate. 7-7, mid-8th. Nick Hagadone came on for the tribe and struck out the side to go to preserve the tie into the 9th. Phil Hughes came on for the Yankees and after taking care of Santana and LaPorta, Shin-Soo Choo connected on a 2-2 fastball into the gap for a 2 out triple. Hughes threw the very next pitch about 56 feet and Montero was unable to prevent it from going all the way back to the backstop. Choo scampered home to make it 8-7 tribe going into the bottom of the 9th. Seemingly shaken by the obnoxious Yankee crowd, Cleveland closer Chris Perez walked Mark Texieria on 4 pitches to begin the inning. After falling Perez fell behind 3-1, Matt Holliday connected on a fastball for a base hit up the middle putting runners on 1st and 3rd with none out. Jesus Montero, first pitch swinging, popped up to the 2B to give Perez his first out. With the tying run on 3rd and winning run on 1st, A-Rod stepped up to the plate and swung through two 97 MPH fastballs to fall into an 0-2 hole. He slammed the next Chris Perez offering, but right into Matt LaPorta's glove, who is able to tag out Holliday before he can retreat back to first. Indians win 8-7.

Box 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
CLE 1 0 0 5 0 0 0 1 1= 8 11 1
NYY 1 0 0 0 4 0 2 0 0= 7 12 1

Notables: NYY Nick Swisher 2-4 BB, HR, 3 RBI
CLE Carlos Santana 4-5, 2 2B, HR, 4 RBI

Game 4
Three hours prior to game 4, the NY Post leaked a story claiming that A-Rod had had an affair with CC Sabathia's wife. A-Rod came out of the dugout with a black eye, which he claimed was caused by his dog. Sabathia seemed shaken in this crucial start allowing three Indians run in the first two frames. After settling down and pitching scoreless 3rd and 4th innings, Sabathia coughed up another 3 over the next two innings and it took him 131 pitches to get through 6. Justin Masterson seemed unfazed by the pressure yielding only two solo homers to Texieria and Swisher over 6 innings of quality work. Already down 6-2, the Yankees bullpen imploded in the 7th. Jenks and Chamberlain walked 5 batters between them and Lonnie Chisenhall capped the inning off with a grand slam to give the tribe 7 in the 7th. A dejected and divided Yankees dugout watched as Aaron Laffey retired all 9 batters he faced and the Indians mobbed the center of the diamond with their 2nd ALDS victory at Yankee stadium in 6 years.

Box 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
CLE 2 1 0 0 1 2 7 1 0 = 14 14 1
NYY 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 = 2 6 1

Notables: NYY CC Sabathia 6.0IP 8H, 6 ER, 4BB, 8K's
CLE Lonnie Chisenhall 2-5 HR, 6 RBI

ALCS matchup Cleveland vs. Boston (next week).

Your Pal,
Alex Trebek

PS: Don't be afraid to comment and tell me what you think!

My thoughts on Acta

2009-10-26T11:53:00.000-07:00

On this gorgeous Indian summer day in Ohio (pun intended), I'd like to give my two cents on the tribe's hire of Manny Acta. Although other writers (ie Pluto, Cousineau and Lastoria) have already covered this hire in far more depth than I intend to here, I hope to add my take to the historical record. Personally, I'm pleased by the move. It doesn't feel like a slam dunk to me, but Acta seems to be the best choice available.

I suggested earlier on this blog that I wanted Bobby V as the tribe's next manager. Bobby V would have been a lot of fun and I'm sure, if he'd accepted the job, he would have clawed and fought as hard as anybody for this ballclub. However, I have a sinking suspicion that Bobby V simply wanted to raise his profile again and show he's "back in business." The rebuilding project in Cleveland just seems wrong for a personality as big as Bobby V (remember Piniella in Tampa Bay?). I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up the manager of the Mets, Dodgers, Cubs or Braves after next season. It appears likely those teams will have openings after 2010 and Bobby V's personality would mesh best with a bigger market and more established team.

Well, back to the man of the hour. I'm impressed that by Acta's energy and youthfulness and I'm glad the tribe picked somebody who values advanced statistics to a veteran retread manager (sorry Grover). I believe that Acta's legacy in Cleveland will hinge upon his work with our latino players. The underachieving trio of Fausto Carmona, Jhonny Peralta and Rafael Perez have stagnated, or in Carmona's case fallen off a cliff, since early successes in their respective careers. It's hard to remember, but Fausto finished 4th in the CY Young vote as a 23 year old, when Peralta was 23 he had an OPS of .886 and just two years ago Perez looked to be the next big thing as far as left handed relievers go. But most importantly, there are two electric latino arms in AAA that could spell success or doom for this latest rebuild. Acta has a reputation for being a good manager of young players, but will he be able to channel the immense talents of Rondon and Carrasco? I think that's what will determine the success of his regime.

Alex Trebek

PS: I've got a fun post scheduled for Wednesday or Thursday, so make sure to stop by!

The Starting Pitching Plan

2009-10-22T18:00:00.000-07:00

After an optimistic look at the tribe's farm system and offense, their pitching is a downer. Despite 4 months of Cliff Lee, the tribe had the 2nd worst team ERA (5.06) in all of baseball right behind Washington (5.00, 103 losses) and ahead of Baltimore (5.13, 98 losses). Yikes. The only consolation is that the Indians' pitching couldn't get much worse. Without further ado and grumbling, here's what our starting pitching looks like going into 2010.

SP Jake Westbrook. Westbrook won 49 games between 2004 and 2006 and looked to be about as steady as a pitcher comes. He took a signed a discounted extension of 3 years and 33 million dollars (2008-2010) at the beginning of the 2007 season. The tribe's rock-solid #2 starter looked to be a fixture in the Indians' rotation for years to come. However, after a decent 2007 and admirable effort in game 7 of the ALCS (after Sabathia and Carmona laid large respective eggs the two games before), Westbrook made 5 starts over 2008 and 2009, although he did sport a good 3.12 ERA (sarcasm). Coming off Tommy John Surgery, Westbrook hopes to be back at the beginning of the 2010 campaign, but take this with a grain of salt because he was supposed to be back in June of 2009, but well that didn't happen. As it stands, Westbrook is a big old question mark.

SP Justin Masterson. I guess Masterson is the de facto #2 starter as it stands. His CG, 4H, 12K performance to end the year places him above Aaron Laffey and his 2IP, 8ER performance on this list. Masterson has an exciting, electric arm and is fun to watch. Although I have some reservations about the Lee trade, the Martinez trade which netted Masterson, Nick Hagadone and Brian Pryce looks like a solid return to me. Although he has a tough time against lefties (.869 OPS against), righties can't hit him (.586 OPS against). On an encouraging note, amongst pitchers with at least 120 IP in '09 his FIP (4.04) was roughly the same as Matt Cain (3.89) and James Shields (4.02) plus he's only 25 next year. I think he could easily settle in as a league average starter by as early as next year and potentially could become a #2/3 guy.

SP Aaron Laffey busted onto the big league scene after Cliff Lee's demotion to AAA during the 2007 season (seems like another world, eh?). He pitched admirably that season and got the call again early in the 2008 season. He pitched well until a rocky July and after another demotion he found himself back in the minors. After a brief stint in the minors in April of 09, Laffey established himself as the Indians' second best pitcher in April and May (as a starter and reliever) until a damn oblique injury shelved him until mid-July. Overall, he pitched well for the tribe, but faded badly at the end of the season. His ERA ballooned from 3.36 on September 2 to 4.44 by the end of the season (only 5 starts). Hopefully, Laffey (just 25) can regain his consistency and provide some quality work in 2010. Does 30 starts, 11 wins and a 4.40 ERA sound about right?

SP David Huff received the call up to the majors in mid-May and led the team with 11 wins. He sported an ugly ERA of 5.61, but his FIP was decent (4.69) and identical to Clay Buchholz (who is 8 days Huff's senior). Huff is older (26) than both Laffey and Masterson and needs to work on his BB/K numbers (1.59 in Cleveland in 2010) and hopefully he'll come closer to his AAA mark of 5.40 in 2008 (16 starts). I like Huff better than Sowers, but I think he's probably just a number 4 or 5 starter.

SP Fausto Carmona. I could say a lot here, but everybody knows his story. Rocky 2006, Great 2007, Rocky 2008, Awful 2009. Carmona's arm is excellent, but his head is all over the place. He's capable of brillance, but he's disrupted by his volatile emotions too often. I think Rob Neyer put it best back on July 30th:

"Carmona seems to me a delicate sort of flower, who will always be just a lousy outing or a small injury from shriveling again, perhaps permanently."

Sadly, I think Carmona peaked in Game 2 of the 2007 ALDS. But, I've been wrong before and Carmona is only 26 next year.

This pitching staff could be decent, but I believe that there are so many question marks (health, inexperience, composure), that it will be well below average. I'm a fan of Hector Rondon and Carlos Carrasco (despite his lousy MLB debut), but I'd like them both to get some more seasoning at AAA. Rondon is just 22 next year while Carrasco is just 23. I fear Carrasco could turn into a Carmona redux, a great arm (from the scouting reports I've read he has an above average fastball, change and curve), but poor control over his emotions. I wouldn't put too much credence into his September debut (take a look at the horrendous early MLB experiences of Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter and Johan Santana). Both of these guys have top of the rotation potential and that's a welcome change from the long line of soft toss lefties this system has produced of late.

I'd spend 4 or 5 million on an innings eater to provide some consistency for this staff (like Pavano last year). The free agent market is littered with pitchers with question marks and who would probably accept a one year contract at a moderate salary (Bedard, Duchscherer, hell even Pavano himself).

Here's a look at our probably 2010 staff:

RHP Jake Westbrook

RHP Justin Masterson

LHP Aaron Laffey

LHP David Huff

RHP Fausto Carmona/Free agent signing

Depth:

RHP Carlos Carrasco

RHP Hector Rondon

LHP Jeremy Sowers (who I like as a long man in the bullpen)

RHP Anthony Reyes (just kidding)

There's a number of guys at AA/AAA who'd probably be ok to spot start (like Scotty "Shoddy" Lewis), but I won't bother to meticulously list them here.

One last thing, I hope the Indians hire Bobby V. I know he's expensive, but the tribe saved a ton of money through their firesales of the past two years. Valentine would be a tireless promoter of this ballclub and fight for every inch. He's got a fire that I like and this team has lacked. He might even get Jhonny Peralta to elicit an emotion......

Alex Trebek

PS: Twitter: "trebek90"

$ Cash Money $- An offseason plan

2009-10-16T18:00:00.000-07:00

Parents weekend is an October tradition here at Kenyon College. Cars have clogged the streets and green spaces and parents attending classes make finding a seat an unnecessary ordeal. To cope with this often aggravating situation, I'm lying low this evening until the elders head off to bed and I can reclaim my campus with my fellow young adults. Until then, I'll escape into a baseball fantasy world.

Although one never knows in this lousy division, contention just doesn't look plausible for the tribe next year (forgive me if you've heard that before). The tribe v. 2010 looks strikingly similar to the v. 2004. Talented, but at least a year off. With a payroll around $55 million assuming the Indians cut ties with Shoppach via trade or non-tender, the tribe looks fairly set. I'd let the youngsters play to gain some experience. Here's a look around the diamond at the hitters:

C- I'd suggest, and I'd imagine the Indians will, play some combination of Lou Marson and Wyatt Toregas for the first two months of the season. Carlos Santana looks good to go hitting wise after he posted a .290/.413/.530 line at AA following his monster 2008 season, however he could use a little seasoning at AAA. By all accounts, he's an excellent blocker and has a cannon of an arm behind the plate, but his English needs improvement and his game calling from what I hear is lousy. Plus by keeping Santana in Columbus until June, they can avoid Santana becoming a super 2 and have him through 2013 as a non-arbitration eligible player and 2014-2016 as arbitration eligible.

1B- Well, a couple days ago I would have said Matt LaPorta should be a shoo in for this spot. However with his 4-6 month recovery time, this possibly creates and opportunity for Andy Marte and Jordan Brown. I don't really view Brown, 26, as much more than Ryan Garko and Marte is a slick fielder, but sports a laughable career line of .216/.272/.352, good for an OPS of .624 in 668 AB. Whether it be Brown or Marte, they'll just be a fill in for Matt "Blue Chip" LaPorta.

2B- Luis Valbuena's line of .250/.298/.416 doesn't look particularly impressive to the naked eye, but as a 23 year old playing a premium position.... it looks good to me. Valbuena isn't afraid to swing and I love the somewhat stunned expression on his face when he makes contact. I wouldn't be surprised if in a couple years Valbuena consistently put up .280/.340/.460 seasons, pretty damn good from a 2B. Baseball America even commented in its 2009 handbook "[Valbuena] has a higher offensive ceiling than Asdrubal Cabrera." And if Valbuena catches a case of the 2nd year hitting blues (like Asdrubal before him) or fails to improve his sometimes shaky defense, the tribe has Jason Donald to step in and show what he's got. And, maybe, just maybe Omar Vizquel could be signed to help tutor the tribe's young 24 year old infielders in addition to selling tickets.

SS- Asdrubal Cabrera, Asdrubal Cabrera, Asdrubal Cabrera. Asdrubal fulfilled his promise and proved himself to be a incredibly special young player in 2009. His .799 OPS (already excellent for a SS) only ranked behind Pablo Sandoval, Justin Upton and Billy Butler amongst players 23 and younger. He easily bested hyped rookies Colby Rasmus (.714) and Elvis Andrus (.702). He's good with the glove too and only will improve with more time to adjust back to SS from 2B. I hope the tribe offers this 23 year old stud a long term contract like the 6 year contract with a 7th year option offered Grady Sizemore after 2005 (with a little lower dollar amounts).

3B- Ugh. Jhonny Peralta's atrocious .690 OPS ranked him 10th from the bottom amongst qualified players in 2009. I thought Peralta was ready for a breakthrough 30 HR season in his year 27 season. However, he disappointed and regressed from his exceptional second half of 2008. It's hard to believe he had 83 RBI. Nonetheless, he's under contract for next year and should rebound at least to the .730-.750 OPS range which isn't god awful. Where are you Chisenhall?

LF-Michael Brantley. This 22 year old wasn't incredible in AAA this year, but I like his Kenny Lofton-esque spark-plug style and 46 steals in 5 months. From Keith Law's September 1 blog:

"Michael Brantley, CF, Cleveland: Brantley has great bat speed combined with outstanding bat control, which is how you can go 2,161 plate appearances in the minors with more walks (258) than strikeouts (190). He's also a plus runner and can play center field, although that position is occupied in Cleveland by Grady Sizemore at the moment. Brantley has below-average power, so playing in an outfield corner might be a stretch, although I think he'll hit for enough average to make it work."

That's encouragement enough for me. I could see him developing into a .310/.400/.450 hitter in his prime (optimistic I know).

CF-Grady Sizemore. Sizemore battled injuries all year and still had a .788 OPS, good for a CF. He's an good fielder with excellent speed and is just entering his age 27 season. The tribe is lucky to have him cheaply signed through 2012. I think with good health, he'll bounce back to his 40 HR MVP potential over the next couple years.

RF-Shin-Soo Choo established himself as a premier player over the past year and a half. He followed his .309/.397/.549 line of 2008 with a .300/.394/.489 in 2009. A 20-20 guy with a cannon of an arm, he might be the Indians best corner outfielder since Juan Gonzalez in 2001. I hope the Indians lock him up this offseason for his four remaining years of team control and maybe his first year of free agency.

DH-Travis Hafner. Hafner had a respectable year putting up a line of .272/.355/.470 in only 338 AB. Hopefully next year, he can be healthy the entire year and give the tribe 500 AB of a veteran slugger this team desperately needs. He'll never post a 1.098 OPS again, but I wouldn't be surprised if he managed 450 AB next year and a line of .275/.370/.500. He didn't completely lose it, but he's not the slugger who took a big discount and signed a 4 year 57 million dollar extension to be a DH in 2007.

There you have it. While the Indians look to have an above average offense in 2010, the pitching well.... that's another story for another day.

Alex Trebek

PS: Add me on twitter "trebek90" for irrelevant baseball banter all the time!

The Shape of Things to Come

2009-10-12T17:04:00.001-07:00

Last season in Northern Ohio was tough, really tough. At the beginning of April I remember I zealously predicted our Cleveland Indians to lose in the 7th game of the ALCS this year and then win it all in 2010. But then the season began..... The Indians slipped to 0-3, then 1-7, and even further to 14-26. I swore them off and despite brief glimmers of hope (the four game sweep of the Rays at the end of May and the 3 straight series wins culminating in Cliff Lee's gem on ESPN against the Cards) the Indians' season effectively ended with Prince Fielder's grand slam off of Rafael Perez on June 15th. The Tribe played like garbage for a month and a half and chose to enter full rebuild mode when they traded DeRosa, Betancourt, Garko, Lee, Martinez and Pavano. August brought hope for a brighter tomorrow with encouraging play, but September was atrocious and Michael Brantley's debut represented about the sole bright spot.

Sigh, the 2009 season will forever infamously stand with 1987 as one of the tribe's most disappointing seasons. However, not all is lost. The Indians still have an impressive, young offensive core built around Sizemore, Choo, Cabrera and LaPorta. The Tribe's pitching is less shiny, but there's talent there too and incredible depth in the farm system. Let's take a quick look at the state of affairs in the Indians organization as a whole.

"The Young Core"

CF Grady Sizemore

SS Asdrubal Cabrera

RF Shin-Soo Choo

OF/1B Matt LaPorta

2B Luis Valbuena

SP Aaron Laffey

SP Justin Masterson

SP David Huff

SP Fausto Carmona (maybe)

RP Chris Perez

RP Tony Sipp

"Veterans"

SP Jake Westbrook

RP Kerry Wood

DH Travis Hafner

3B Jhonny Peralta

Note: I didn't add players to this list like Jeremy Sowers and Andy Marte who are at best decent role players.

As for the farm system, here are my top 20 (approx. expected arrival):

1. Carlos Santana-C (2010)

2. Lonnie Chisenhall-3B (2011)

3. Hector Rondon-RHP (2010)

4. Nick Hagadone-LHP (2011)

5. Michael Brantley-OF (2010)

6. Carlos Carrasco-RHP (2010)

7. Nick Weglarz-OF (2011-2012)

8. Jason Knapp-RHP (2012-2013)

9. TJ House-LHP (2012-2013)

10. Alexander Perez-LHP (2012-2013)

11. Alex White-RHP (2011)

12. Lou Marson-C (2010)

13. Jeanmar Gomez-RHP (2011)

14. Jason Kipnis-OF (2011)

15. Jess Todd-RHP (2010)

16. Bryan Price-RHP (2012)

17. Connor Graham-RHP (2010)

18. Eric Berger-LHP (2011)

19. Zach Putnam-RHP (2010)

20. Abner Abreu-3B/OF (2012-2013)

21. Chen-Chang Lee-RHP (2011-2012)

22. Beau Mills-1B (2011)

23. Jason Donald-2B/SS (2010)

24. Scott Barnes-LHP (2011)

25. Clayton Cook-RHP (2012-2013)

Other notables: LHP Kelvin de la Cruz, RHP Rob Bryson, RHP Yohan Pino, SS Carlos Rivero, 3B Matt McBride, OF Tim Fedroff, RHP Josh Judy, 2B Cord Phelps... etc (incredible depth here).

Here are a couple links from Project Prospect, one of my favorite prospect sites, with some goodies about the tribe's farm system in the rankings and chats (http://www.projectprospect.com/article/2009/09/01/top-25-position-prospects)

(http://www.projectprospect.com/article/2009/10/01/top-25-pitching-prospects)

The Indians are already fairly strong hitting-wise topside with the big question being "Who's pitching?" Well, there seem to be definitive waves of arms on the way and hopefully Shapiro knows what he's doing. Playoffs in 2011 and a World Series contender in 2012? Maybe if these arms turn out....

Now I'm left to hope either John Farrell or Bobby Valentine becomes the next manager of this ballclub to lead us to greener pastures.

Your pal,

Alex Trebek

PS: Follow me on twitter: "trebek90"

Trebek on the Tribe

Thoughts about Fausto

An Optimistic Rant about the Indians

Steve (Cleveland)

Klaw (12:33 PM)

Steve (Cleveland)

Klaw (12:47 PM)

Saturday Morning Musing-February Odds and Ends

Previewing the NL

Saturday Morning Musing-Previewing the AL

Saturday Morning Musings-"The Indians, Victor Wang and Transactions"

What does the US sugar quota have to do with the payroll inequality in the MLB?

Mr. Shapiro's 2009 Trade Scorecard

Mr. Shapiro's 2008 Trade Scorecard

The 2012 Playoffs-The World Series

Rosterin' and Prospectin': A Look at the Tribe's 40 man and Farm System

A Team of Rivals

The Pen Plan

The 2012 Playoffs-ALCS

The 2012 Playoffs-The ALDS

My thoughts on Acta

The Starting Pitching Plan

$ Cash Money $- An offseason plan

The Shape of Things to Come

Klaw
(12:33 PM)

Klaw
(12:47 PM)