Thoughts about Fausto

Unfortunately, I've been too busy with school work to write much about the tribe lately. However, I've got a little free time and I think I'll sneak in a quick one here about our old friend Fausto. With that ladies and gentlemen, buckle your seat belts....

Before we look at Fausto's stellar Spring Training, let's look at the stats:

2007: 19-8, 3.06 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 3.88 xFIP, 5.73 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9, 64.3 GB%, .281 BABIP in 215 IP

2008: 8-7, 5.44 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 5.13 xFIP, 4.33 K/9, 5.22 BB/9, 0.52 HR/9, 63.5 GB%, .297 BABIP in 120.2 IP

2009: 5-12, 6.32 ERA, 5.36 FIP, 4.98 xFIP, 5.67 K/9, 5.03 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 55.2 GB%, .330 BABIP in 125.1 IP

Although Carmona posted an impressive 2007 by all of the statistics above, he looked to have outdone himself a bit. His FIP and xFIP (more accurate representations of ERA) are 0.82 and 0.86 runs respectively above his actual ERA. They were still impressive for a 23 year old nonetheless. His BABIP also looks like it was a little flukey low. His K rates were unspectacular, but he kept his BB rates low. However his HR/9 (0.67) and GB% (64.3) (crucial stats for a sinkerballer) were excellent. For comparison, Cliff Lee (0.66), CC Sabathia (0.70) and Justin Verlander (0.75) had similar HR/9 rates in '09 and only Joel Pinero (60.5%) really came close to Fausto's '07 GB%.

Expectations were high for Fausto heading into '08, but he underperformed expectations badly. I, and many others, blamed it on the Verducci Effect, which states that pitchers are injury prone and underperform the year after a 30 inning or more workload increase. Between AAA and Cleveland in '06 Fausto only complied 102.1 IP total innings. He pitched 112.2 more innings in '07 and more than double his '06 total. Predictably, Fausto got injured and his BB rate skyrocketed. However, his HR/9 and GB% rates stayed relatively stable. There was still much reason for hope.

Then the 2009 season happened. Fausto's BB rate remained unsustainably high, his HR/9 rate more than doubled and his GB rate dipped (although it was still the fourth best in baseball for pitchers with more than 120 IP). After his two-month demotion to the minors Fausto was somewhat better, but still nothing like his '07 self. Despite the fact that he's still only 26, everybody (myself included) had pretty much given up on him.

As I looked at the young talent in this organization this offseason and tried to determine Cleveland's future roster, something was missing. The lineup is already imposing and would only get better with reinforcements like Carlos Santana, Lonnie Chisenhall and Nick Weglarz on the way. Pitching-wise the Indians might have the best minor league depth in baseball, but I had trouble finding a guy with definite Top of the Rotation potential. Carrasco and Rondon are both near the majors, but probably middle of the rotation types. Jason Knapp is incredibly talented, but very young (19) and injury prone. Nick Hagadone has also TOR potential, but many talent evaluators believe he'll be relegated to the pen due to his injury risk. Alex White, the 15th overall pick in last year's draft, likewise has a lot of potential, but still hasn't thrown a professional inning yet. The organization seemed to be overflowing with talent, but lacked that crucial guy with definite TOR potential.

However, Fausto has seemingly reported to Spring Training a changed, reinvigorated man. He's cut some weight and has put up the following line this spring:

3-0, 0.45 ERA, 8H, 0HR, 2 BB, 9 K's in 20 IP

Granted, these are still only Spring Training stats, but Buster Olney, Manny Acta and Lou Piniella have all sung Fausto's praises. Many scouts are impressed. Despite the weakness of the AL Central this year, a possible Fausto resurgence would be much more helpful in '11 and beyond. The 2010 ballclub is just too flawed. The pitching situation outside of Fausto is still not pretty (and Fausto isn't a sure thing himself). Westbrook still hasn't pitched in a major league game since May 2008. Masterson flashes brilliance, but has been inconsistent and still has a lot of trouble getting lefties out. Talbot, Huff and Laffey are probably no better than #4/5 starters. Carrasco and Rondon still need seasoning in the minors and the Wood-less bullpen could be a major work in progress as demonstrated from Monday night's game.

However, with the outstanding talent present in the Indians organization.... A Fausto resurgence (he has options through 2014) could provide the crucial cornerstone to postseason glory in 2011 and beyond. The offense looks strong going forward and our pitching depth should fill up the bullpen and middle/back of the rotation with plenty of quality options. However, a focused, dominant Fausto could tip the balance and take the Indians from contenders to champions in a couple years.

I hope I didn't just jinx us....

Alex Trebek

An Optimistic Rant about the Indians

Ok, I'm shooting this one from the hip. I've been stuck in the library all week pumping out my various midterm papers. I'm a little on edge, but I'm almost done and I'm going to channel this energy against something that's really getting on my nerves. LAZY NATIONAL AND LOCAL JOURNALISM REGARDING THE INDIANS.

I took a brief break from work this afternoon to read Keith Law's chat from last Thursday. Although I usually enjoy Keith Law and his normal sarcastic, snarky remarks about the Indians don't usually bother me (he is from Massachusetts after all), his complete and total disregard for the Indians today pissed me off and primed me for rant mode.

Here are his comments:

Steve (Cleveland)

It seems like the statistical projections have the Indians doing a lot better (CHONE has them at 81 wins) than the scouts and local media think. Pitching is obviously tough to project, but can this team be that good?

Klaw

(12:33 PM)

No.

Steve (Cleveland)

Can I get more than one word on the Indians?

Klaw

(12:47 PM)

They're not very good. That's four!

Ok, very funny Klaw...

In my quest for a little baseball news outside of the reliable bloggers (Let's Go Tribe, Tribe Daily, DiaTribe and Indians Prospect Insider), I went to Sports Illustrated's website. Tim Marchman, who ever the hell that is, pegged Mark Shapiro as the #22 "best" GM in baseball.

Marchman said this: "[Shapiro] has to be the most overrated executive of the last few years."

Thank you Mr. Marchman for your penetrating insight. Sure Shapiro hasn't drafted well (although the last two drafts are very promising) and he made some questionable free agent signings/extensions like David Dellucci and Jason Michaels, but this small-market team came very close to a championship in '07. Furthermore a deadly combination of Wedge, historically bad bullpens and bad luck caused Cleveland to badly underperform their Expected Pythagorean Win-Loss Record over the past couple of years. Give Shapiro $150 million and see what he could do. Finally my quest for Indians baseball information led me to my copy of Baseball Prospectus and I re-read the entry on the Indians. Of course I ran into the same tired pessimism:

"Talents such as Carlos Santana and [Matt] LaPorta might provide the lineup anchors for the next great crop of Tribesmen, but even in the decisively mediocre AL Central, it figures to be a slow climb back."

Ok, I'm guessing that the national media looks at these two facts and quickly comes the conclusion that the Indians are a lost cause.

Indians W-L

2007- 96-66 Tied for best in baseball

2008- 81-81 15th best in baseball

2009- 65-97 Tied for 4th worst in baseball

Moreover, the Indians have traded away two CY Young Winners over the past two years (CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee), all-star Victor Martinez and a bunch of quality, if replaceable, big leaguers like Casey Blake, Ryan Garko, Rafael Betancourt and Ben Francisco.

Thus, the majority of sports writers (from national to Sheldon Ocker) have concluded the Indians are done and finished. They snidely console us that "at least Cleveland still has LeBron."

Here are five reasons for Indians optimism if one digs a little deeper:

#1 Grady Sizemore- Many in the media say the Indians should, or will soon, trade Grady, but I retort the simple question: "Why?" Sizemore, still only 27, is signed for two more years at a bargain basement price of 13.1 million with a dirt cheap 8.5 million dollar option for 2012. Here are his WARs from '06-'08: 7.5, 5.9, 6.4. Granted he had a down year last year due to injuries, but he still put up a 111 OPS+. PECOTA predicts he'll put up the second highest WAR in the AL in '10 only behind Joe Mauer. The Indians could always trade Sizemore in 2012 if they actually are entering a lost decade. However, the Indians should be in position to compete in '11 so there's no reason to dump one of the game's premier players... at least not yet.

#2 The Lineup- Expanding up Sizemore.... look at the Indians' powerful, probable lineup:

1) SS Asdrubal Cabrera- He posted a .799 OPS in his year 23 season. For comparison's sake, Derek Jeter posted a .775 OPS in his year 23 season. Jeter subsequently put up the following OPS numbers the next four years: .864, .989, .896, .858. While Cabrera's likely not the next Jeter, he compares favorably to him.

2) CF Sizemore-See above.

3) RF Shin-Soo Choo-2008 wOBA-.402 OPS-.946 and 2009 wOBA-.389 OPS-.883 (Justin Upton 2009 wOBA-.388, OPS-.899)

4) DH Travis Hafner- Hafner will never again be the prolific slugger who put up OPSs of .993, 1.003 and 1.098 from '04-'06. Nonetheless, he rebounded and put up average-ish production for a DH in '09 (.825 OPS). Hopefully another year away from his shoulder surgery Hafner will be able to improve a bit upon that production, but if he doesn't at least Branyan provides nice insurance.

5) 3B Jhonny Peralta- Under Eric Wedge's watchful eye Peralta never came close to duplicating his outstanding age 23 season from '05 (.292/.366/.520). He completely tanked in '09 putting up a dismal .254/.316/.375 line. I think it's fairly safe to say that Peralta will bounce back to his solid '07-'08 levels (.771, .802 respective OPSs) with a new, less abrasive manager and an offseason to adjust to 3B.

6) 1B Russell Branyan- If for no other reason, signing Branyan for a bargain basement price of $2 million is a good deal for managing Brantley's service time. It never hurts to add a guy who whacked 31 homers in only 431 '09 ABs either.

7) LF Matt LaPorta- LaPorta is still unproven at the major league level. However, he ranked as BA's #27 prospect before 2009 and Kevin Goldstein gave him 5 stars then saying: "LaPorta projects as a classic high OBP/high slugging middle of the order presence."

8) 2B Luis Valbuena- Valbuena needs to polish his game especially defensively, but he's only 24 and had a higher ISO (isolated power=difference between BA and SLG) than Nick Markakis, Vladimir Guerrero and Todd Helton.

9) C Lou Marson- One of the many goodies acquired for Cliff Lee, he should be a decent high OBP, low slugging placeholder until Carlos Santana arrives midseason.

Pretty potent lineup.

#3- The Indians have a consensus top 5 farm system.

The Indians have Carlos Santana a dynamic catching prospect who looks a lot like a more athletic Victor Martinez, but with a little more power potential. Also looking to help in '10 is Michael Brantley who should infuse the lineup with a young, athletic high-OBP speedster. Lonnie Chisenhall may not be ready in '10, but Kevin Goldstein forsees a ".300 hitting third baseman with 20-25 home runs annually" in the future.

The Indians have some nice young pitching pieces already in the big leagues. Guys like Justin Masterson, Chris Perez, David Huff, Aaron Laffey, Tony Sipp and hopefully even Fausto Carmona constitute some decent building blocks. Granted none of those guys really jumps off the computer screen at you, but still the pitching staff topside isn't utterly devoid of talent.

As for the Indians minors pitching depth John Sickels said this: "The [Indians minor league] pitching.... wow, there is a ton of depth." The Indians have guys like Hector Rondon, Carlos Carrasco, Jess Todd, Zach Putnam, Josh Judy and Jeanmar Gomez who could easily help topside in '10. Futhermore intriguing arms like Alex White, Nick Hagadone, Jason Knapp, Kelvin de la Cruz, TJ House and Alexander Perez litter the lower levels of the Indians system. Some of these guys certainly will bust, but there is strength in numbers and the Indians have possibly unmatched pitching depth in the minors. The real question is this: will any of these guys become top of the rotation studs?

#4- Thankfully, the AL Central Sucks. Take a look at the PECOTA and CHONE projected standings. I'll do a post soon on the Tribe's AL Central opponents but just look at the projections:

PECOTA:

Minnesota-81-81

Chicago-80-82

Cleveland-79-83

Detroit-79-83

Kansas City-74-88

CHONE:

Minnesota-86-76

Cleveland-82-80

Chicago-81-81

Detroit-74-88

Kansas City-73-89

What a crapshoot. It's essentially a race to see who gets the honor of being swept out of the ALDS by the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays. Hell, despite the doom and gloom the rebuilding Indians look like they could have a legitimate shot of winning the Central in 2010. Well I'm not holding my breath, at least not for 2010, but it's nice to see that the Indians could actually make some noise before the bulk of their minor league talent is ready to help them.

#5- Manny Acta>Eric Wedge. Sure, Manny Acta has a career winning percentage of .385% (158-252), but he's held in high regard around the league. I like his positive energy and statistically- backed decision to drop Sizemore in the order. Hopefully he can shepherd the next wave of young Indians better than Eric Wedge could the last.

In conclusion, the Indians already have a strong lineup built around the impressive young core of Sizemore, Cabrera, Choo, LaPorta and Valbuena. Farm system reinforcements are on the way in the form of Carlos Santana and Michael Brantley this year and Lonnie Chisenhall and Nick Weglarz soon thereafter. Cleveland's current pitching staff, although certainly not barren, currently lacks the depth and impact talent to seriously contend. However, with their outstanding pitching depth coming up through the farm... The Indians should be in good condition to contend as early as 2011.

Long slow climb back? Ha, take that pessimists!

Humbly Yours,

Alex Trebek

Saturday Morning Musing-February Odds and Ends

As we all try to survive February, and a particularly nasty one here in Ohio, let's take a look at some Indians related news.

First off, let's look at the big news concerning the promotions of Shapiro and Antonetti. I wholeheartedly agree with keeping these guys in the organization. I'm a staunch Shapiro supporter and his right hand man Antonetti deserves a shot to be GM. I think the Indians severe underachieving the past few years came from a mixture of bad luck, injuries, Eric Wedge and historically bad bullpens (almost beyond belief). On a tight payroll Shapiro has created teams with these expected win-loss (X-L) records the past 5 years (actual W-L in parentheses):

2005: 96-66 (93-69, -3)

2006: 89-73 (78-84, -11)

2007: 91-71 (96-66, +5)

2008: 85-77, (81-81, -4)

2009: 73-89, (65-97, -8)

That's pretty damn good for a small market team. I'm tired off these trolls blaming him... as if somebody else could do much better (I'm sure there are plenty out there who could do much worse). You have 2005 where the Indians should have made the playoffs, but lost 6 out of their last 7 to fall just short. By the way the White Sox X-L that year was 91-71 or 5 behind the that of the Tribe's, but they managed to make the playoffs anyways and win the World Series.

The Indians actually lost 11 more games than their X-L record said they should of in 2006. Hard to imagine how that offense with a stellar trio of CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Jake Westbrook heading the rotation finished so badly. Well I guess it comes down to THE BULLPEN. Grady Sizemore (.908 OPS at 23) and Travis Hafner (1.098 OPS) were otherworldly that year.

The only year the Indians actually outperformed their X-L record (2007) they collapsed in the ALCS.... In 2008 the Indians fell apart early, but came on strong at the end to finish 81-81 even after the Sabathia deal. Their X-L of 85-77 would have put them in the conversation for the division crown, which came down to a one game playoff between Minnesota and Chicago (both had 88 wins). And well, 2009 was just bad all around....

Using this evidence (teams that were or should have been in legitimate contention 4 out of last 5 years), I fully support promotions for Shapiro and Antonetti.

In other news, Russell Branyan is back for his fourth tour of duty in the Indians organization. For a reported 2 million dollars and another million in incentives, I like this deal. Hopefully he can have a hot first half and net the Indians a nice prospect, but moreover in light of the relatively optimistic CHONE and PECOTA standings predictions (Indians pegged at 81 and 77 wins respectively)... perhaps Branyan could push the Indians to the magical 82 or 83 wins that it may take to win this division (optimistic I know). Here's the probable lineup with Branyan onboard:

C- Lou Marson/Carlos Santana

1B- Russell Branyan

2B- Luis Valbuena

SS- Asdrubal Cabrera

3B- Jhonny Peralta

LF- Matt LaPorta

CF- Grady Sizemore

RF- Shin-Soo Choo

DH- Travis Hafner

Assuming health, that's a damned imposing lineup. Essentially Branyan takes the spot Brantley would have had in the lineup by shifting LaPorta out to leftfield. However, I have no problem with Brantley getting more seasoning at AAA. Maybe the lineup is a little too lefty heavy, but it's still impressive. If only, if only we had some pitching.....

Lastly, I got my copy of Baseball Prospectus' 2010 Handbook. It's always a good read and as a longtime reader of the publications such as The Onion I appreciate its snarky, sarcastic style. There were some nice nuggets of hope in the handbook, primarily concerning the tribe's offense, but surprisingly also about the Indians' pitching staff too.

BP's PECOTA predicted Grady Sizemore to bounce back and have the second highest WAR (5.4) in the AL behind only Joe Mauer (5.9). Furthermore, PECOTA remains a believer in Choo predicting that he'll have the fifth highest VORP (Value over Replacement Player) in the MLB amongst RF only behind Andre Eithier, Jayson Werth, Nick Markakis and Hunter Pence. Despite some predicted regression in '10 PECOTA likes young Asdrubal Cabrera's career prospects offering up impressive comparables in Tony Fernandez, Derek Jeter and Alan Trammell. Perhaps the most encouraging prediction was of rookie Carlos Santana who PECOTA saw as the catcher with the fifth highest VORP, a single slot beneath Victor Martinez.

On the pitching side there wasn't a great deal of optimism for '10, but a couple things caught my eye. One of Jeanmar Gomez's comparables was Javier Vazquez. Gomez sometimes gets forgotten within the incredible pitching depth of the Indians' system, but it's encouraging to see him favorably compared to Vazquez. Also, PECOTA likes Masterson and compared him to John Lackey. Hopefully he can learn to contain lefties a little better....

Well, that's all for now. Thanks for stopping by and to the readers who have e-mailed me insights/questions (I'll answer some reader questions in a future post). I'll be back next week with some first week opinions/reactions to tribe-related spring training intrigue.

Yours truly,

Alex Trebek

Previewing the NL

It's still snowing out there.... We have something like 25 inches on the ground here in central Ohio. I thought I'd finish my preliminary preview of baseball in '10 before my evening seminar. Once again, I apologize for the strange formating issues.... and remember this post is just for fun since despite all the research in the world you can't easily predict the random nature of a 162 game baseball season. Enjoy!

NL East W L

(1) Philadelphia Phillies 92 70

(4) Atlanta Braves 89 73

Florida Marlins 82 80

New York Mets 81 81

Washington Nationals 66 96

The NL East is still a strong division and every team save the Nationals has a legitimate shot at the playoffs. The Phillies questionably swapped out Lee for Halladay, but still have a damn imposing rotation of Halladay, Hamels(I expect him to return to his ’08 form), Blanton, Happ and Moyer. There offense is similarly stacked with the likes of Howard, Utley, Werth, Rollins and Victorino. Who knows what to expect from their bullpen with an erratic Brad Lidge penciled in as closer, but bullpens are so volatile they’re not even worth projecting. It’s hard to pick against the Phillies here. The Braves almost made the playoffs last year and once again sport a fine looking roster in ’10. Despite the subtraction of Javier Vazquez, they still have a superb rotation headlined by a potent trio of Hudson-Hansen-Jurrjens and their offense should be better for the subtraction of Garrett Anderson’s 496 ABs and Jason Heyward’s impending arrival. The Marlins locked up ace Josh Johnson over the winter to give them a centerpiece on the pitching-side to complement their centerpiece on the hitting side Hanley Ramirez. Ricky Nolasco suffered horrible luck last year (5.08 ERA, 3.28 xFIP) and I view him as a co-ace to Johnson. The Marlins have plenty of young pitching depth to slot behind Johnson and Nolasco and with hitters like Uggla, Coghlan, Cantu and hopefully Maybin the Marlins could easily make some more noise this year in the East. The Mets have a Royal-esque offseason and triggered a hilarious post on fangraphs entitled “the contest” between Drayton Moore and Omar Minaya. Although they overspent for Bay, the Mets were so unhealthy last year that I believe they are getting underestimated. They’re a .500 team or maybe a little better, but I still think they’re fourth in the division. The future doesn’t look quite so grim for the Nationals with Strasburg in the minors. They could have a decent team in 2011 with guys like Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Drew Storen and Ryan Zimmerman leading a talented young core. 2010 you ask? Well, don’t hold your breath.

NL Central W L

(2) St. Louis Cardinals 90 72

Cincinnati Reds 86 76

Milwaukee Brewers 81 81

Chicago Cubs 78 84

Pittsburgh Pirates 67 95

Houston Astros 63 99

The Cardinals are the strongest team here on paper. The quartet of Carpenter, Wainwright, Pujols and Holliday is not one you want to mess with. They depleted their farm system and much of their young talent with their trades for Holliday and DeRosa last year, but it was worth it and they’re a strong team. Look for budding star Colby Rasmus to breakout this year and make it a powerful quintet of all-stars heading St. Louis’ roster. The Reds are a team I like a lot. They probably still are a year away, but they have a high upside, if volatile, rotation headed by Volquez, Cueto and Bailey that has already showed flashes of brilliance. Watch out for their 2012 rotation which could be dominating with Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, first round pick Mike Leake and stud Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman. Votto is an underappreciated star and their offense should be fine with guys like Bruce and Rolen. The Brewers improved their downright awful pitching staff with solid cogs Randy Wolf and Doug Davis to slot behind Yovani Gallardo. However, it’s still an underwhelming staff. At least the offense will be fun to watch with the Prince and Ryan “the Hebrew Hammer” Braun holding down the heart of the lineup. They look like a .500 team to me. I’m not particularly high on the Cubs. The Cubbies are handicapped by bad contracts and an aging roster and I’m not a fan of their GM Jim Hendry either. The Pirates are showing progress and have a young core in the majors and high minors that could turn the ship around in Pittsburgh. I’m a big Andrew McCutchen fan. Pirates GM Neil Huntington is doing his best in a tough situation. My Astros prediction may be a little harsh, but I foresee a collapse in Houston. They have an old, listless roster weighed down by bad contracts. Houston needs to focus inwards and build up their consistently lousy farm system. If not, Houston could suffer a lost decade…. and signing lousy, injury prone relievers to 3 year, 15 million dollar contracts doesn’t help Houston’s cause *cough, Brandon Lyon, cough*.

NL West W L

(3) Arizona D-Backs 89 73

Colorado Rockies 86 76

Los Angeles Dodgers 83 79

San Francisco Giants 75 87

San Diego Padres 68 94

My predictions here are fairly bold. People fall into the comfortable habit of predicting divisions like they finished the year beforehand. Although Arizona finished dead last with only 70 wins in ’09, they’ve made some moves this offseason and have an impressive core. Let’s start with the rotation. If Brandon Webb comes back healthy, a Haren-Webb-Edwin Jackson trio looks very strong. I believe that Ian Kennedy will benefit greatly from this change of scenery. He’ls still only 25, posted fine numbers in AAA last year (9.93 K/9, 3.57 K/BB, 1.92 FIP) and should make a fine #4 starter. On the offense end, the D-Backs have budding superstars Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton, along with a talented group of Stephen Drew, Miguel Montero, Connor Jackson and Chris Young. Imagine if that latter group can bring it together. As a result, I’m bullish on Arizona. The Rockies were a great story in ’09, sprinting into the wild card after an atrocious start. I almost picked them in the West because their talented roster spearheaded by Tulowitzki, Helton, Jimenez and Flower could still easily take it. The Dodgers had a lackluster offseason and strangely decided against offering arbitration to Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson. It’s difficult to predict their gifted, but volatile pitching duo of Clayton Kershaw (ugly 4.79 BB/9, but only 119H in 171 IP) and Chad Billingsley (3.14 ERA in first 120.1IP in '10, 5.45 ERA in last 79.1IP). They still have a nice offense spearheaded by an excellent outfield of Kemp, Ethier and Ramirez. The Giants just have such a lousy offense that it’s hard to put them any higher than this. Now the trio of Lincecum/Cain/Sandoval is imposing, but in general I think the Giants are overhyped due to their nice 88 win campaign last year. The Padres are in the capable hands of former Red Sox assistant GM Jed Hoyer. They have some nice guys coming through their system starting with #3 overall pick last year Donovan Tate. However, the team topside just isn’t very good, although I like youngster Matt Latos and think Adrian Gonzalez and Health Bell could make superb trade bait.

Playoffs:

ALDS

(1) New York over (3) Minnesota in 3 games

(2) Texas over (4) Boston in 4 games

NLDS

(3) Arizona over (1) Philadelphia in 5 games

(4) Atlanta over (2) St. Louis in 4 games

ALCS

(2) Texas over (1) New York in 6 games

NLCS

(4) Atlanta over (3) Arizona in 5 games

World Series

Texas over Atlanta in 7 games

Spring Training in a week!

Alex Trebek

Saturday Morning Musing-Previewing the AL

Before you start: I am sorry about the formating issues with the W-L records.

Winter rages onwards. Well I'm here at the college library procrastinating from doing a german paper on "althochdeutsch" (old high german). I guess let's take a break and preview the AL in 2010. Granted, it's fairly useless to predict W-L records in February because of the injuries/luck/other intangibles involved with a 162 game baseball season, nonetheless let's just have some fun. Moreover, there's already half a foot of snow on the ground and it doesn't look like it's going to stop coming down anytime soon.

AL East W L

(1) New York Yankees 102 60

(4) Boston Red Sox 99 63

Tampa Bay Rays 91 71

Baltimore O’s 71 91

Toronto Blue Jays 68 94

The AL East will once again be the strongest in all of baseball. Personally, I’d peg the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays as the three best teams in baseball. The Yankees and Red Sox with their enormous payrolls and shrewd front offices are almost in a league of their own. I’ll take the Yankees here because I like their offseason moves to an already menacing team. The newly acquired trio of Curtis Granderson, Javier Vazquez and on-base machine Nick Johnson may not be as impressive as last years trio of Sabathia, Burnett and Texieria, but don’t discount it. I see them winning about as many games as last year (103) because their improvements are tempered somewhat by an aging roster (Jeter, Rodriguez, Pettitte, M. Rivera, Posada) that was unusually healthy last year. The Red Sox are probably still a step behind the Yankees. However, given Boston’s strong farm system, impressive core and monetary advantage if they aren’t as good as the Yanks this year they will be soon. The Rays and their creative GM Andrew Friedman shocked baseball in ’08 by making a run at a championship. It’s incredible that they have kept pace with the megamarkets of New York and Boston…. Despite their leadership, young talent and minor league system, I still see the Red Sox and Yanks as being superior to the small market Rays. The Baltimore O’s could be a surprise team in ’11… They already have a strong offense spearheaded by Markakis, Jones, Roberts, Reimold and Wieters and have an outstanding young pitching quartet of Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Zach Britton coming through the minor league system. Toronto has an ok farm system and an ok major league team (although the trio of Aaron Hill, Travis Snider and Adam Lind is something to build around). Mediocre Farm System+ Mediocre Major League Team=Screwed in AL East.

AL Central W L

(3) Minnesota Twins 86 76

Chicago White Sox 80 82

Cleveland Indians 76 86

Detroit Tigers 73 89

Kansas City Royals 66 96

The AL Central sucks. There, I said what was on everybody's mind. I’ll pick Minnesota by default. Scott Baker is a nice pitcher and I expect Francisco Liriano to turn it around after his nice stint in winterball (although I doubt he’ll ever come close to his unbelievable ’06 form). Minnesota’s offense has its holes, but Joe Mauer is a superstar and Morneau, Hardy, Cuddyer, Kubel and Span are all solid pieces around which to build. The White Sox have a potent quartet of starters in Jake Peavy, Mark Buerhle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd, but their offense looks pretty awful. Gordon Beckham will be a star and I expect bounce back seasons from Alex Rios and Carlos Quentin, but I’ve never been a big Alexei Ramirez fan personally (.723 OPS in his age 27 season) and there isn’t much help coming from the farm. The White Sox have a solid chance to capture the AL Central, but they don’t look like much more than a .500 team and are far inferior to the trio of New York-Boston-Tampa Bay. Cleveland has promise, but is rebuilding and is almost certainly at least a year away. Their offense spearheaded by Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera will receive young reinforcements from the likes of Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana and Michael Brantley, but the necessary pitching just isn’t there yet. The Tigers almost captured the AL Central crown in ’09, but probably outdid themselves. They were outscored 743-745 and lost important cogs Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson. Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello are outstanding pieces to build around and the minor league system has some promising pieces, but I just don’t see them going anywhere this year (although the AL Central is awful....). The Royals have Zach Grienke and Billy Butler along with nice pieces in David DeJesus, Gil Meche and hopefully a productive Alex Gordon, but Dayton Moore has made some notoriously questionable moves this offseason. They’ve paid free agents like Jason Kendall, Brian Anderson and Scott Podsednik who are just as qualified to receive a major league contract as to work at a gas station.

AL West W L

(2) Texas Rangers 88 74

Oakland A’s 86 76

Los Angeles Angels 85 77

Seattle Mariners 82 80

This division is the one I’m most looking forward to seeing in 2010. All four teams have a decent solid at the division crown. The consensus groupthink (if that’s not too Orwellian) is that the Mariners stand out from the crowd here. Granted the Mariners won 85 games last year and had an excellent offseason, but they were still outscored by 52 runs last year. Figgins and Lee are outstanding additions and I do like Jack Z, but the offense still is not that good and not to curb the collective enthusiasm of Mariners fans, but your team is probably a bit overrated (although a King Felix-Lee-healthy Bedard trio could very well prove me wrong). Furthermore I would like to say that although usually there is no harm in taking on a player for essentially nothing like the M’s did with Milton Bradley, but I think Bradley is an asshole in the mold of Albert Belle who will eventually alienate anybody he’s around long enough. I picked the Rangers because I like what’s brewing down there in Texas. Their offense core is already potent with the likes of Kinsler, Young and Cruz. I believe that despite Chris Davis’ ridiculously high number of K’s (150K’s in 391ABs!) that he could become a quality major leaguer. Add Rich Harden to a pitching corps built around young talent like Feldman, Holland, Hunter and Feliz and things start to look quite promising for the Texas Rangers. Moreover the Rangers were picked for the second straight year as BA’s top minor league system. Not much not to like there. I feel the A’s are underrated especially if Ben Sheets is healthy. Brett Anderson+Ben Sheets is almost enough to justify a winning record alone. Despite their spotty offense, pitchers like Braden and Cahill mean the A’s should be a solid or better team in ’09. It’s almost trendy to pick against the Angels every year despite their consistency and record of success. The duel losses of Lackey and Figgins hurt the Angels a lot, but they are a resilient bunch and could once again silence the doubters in ’10 by capturing another division crown.

ALDS

(1) New York over (3) Minnesota

(2) Texas over (4) Boston

ALCS

(2) Texas over (1) New York

Well there you go. Constructive criticism is always welcome and I value everybody's perspective. I do follow major and minor baseball closely and weigh a wide variety of sources before I make my picks, but remember I'm only one guy making picks in February. Admittedly my predictions were pretty lousy for the 2009 season. I did have the Yankees winning it all, but I had them beating the Mets in 7 games. In my myopic nostalgia I like to think that I correctly predicted the World Series winner in '09 (not that I liked the Yankees victory), but well in hindsight the Mets were still an awful choice for the NL champion.

Peace,

Alex Trebek

Saturday Morning Musings-"The Indians, Victor Wang and Transactions"

Hey there, where is the new year going? Are we really already nearly a month into 2010? Well, I'm not complaining because that means we're that much closer to Spring Training and some major league baseball. Anyways, let's take a look around....

Using Victor Wang's prospect value research from the Hardball Times blogger "dougdirt" of John Sickels' Prospect Blog created this interesting farm system ranking that slotted the Indians as #1 in baseball. I'd take any prospect ranking with a grain of salt, but it's always nice to see the tribe's farm system ranked highly.

Let's take a closer look at Victor Wang's research. Carlos Santana appears to be a Top 10 prospect according to respected sources such as Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Project Prospect and John Sickels so we'll group him there. According to Mr. Wang's research Santana has a (rough comp in parenthesis according to "Wins Above Bench"):

10% chance of busting (Andy Marte)

50% chance of contributing (Ben Francisco/Casey Blake)

25% chance of being an everyday guy (Victor Martinez)

15% chance of being a star (a Grady Sizemore of catching)

We could do a specific evaluation for Chisenhall, Rondon, Brantley and the rest of the prospects. However instead of dissecting tribe prospects one by one, let's see what to expect from the "wave of arms". According to John Sickels' latest Indians prospect rankings the Indians have 6 pitchers (Hagadone, Rondon, White, Carrasco, Knapp and House) ranked as "Grade B or B-". Wang's research found that 52% of Grade B pitching prospects bust, so roughly 3 of these pitchers will at least be a major league contributer and it's likely that a couple could be more.

Onwards and upwards, the Indians had an impressive 15, yes 15, Grade C+ prospects (12 pitchers). Sickels identified 65 Indians guys who were at least "C" level. Wang found that about 75% of Grade C pitchers busted so that means that the Indians will most likely get about 3 useful or better pitchers out of that group of 12 C+ pitchers. Additionally if we assume that half of the unnamed Grade C prospects (of out of the 65 Sickels identified) are pitchers.... that gives us another 20 arms and possibly another 5 useful pitchers. That means that statistically speaking the Indians can expect about 11 major league caliber arms from their farm system.

The tribe undoubtably has pitching quantity, but the question remains will a couple of these guys take it to the next level? That will determine if the Indians will be mired in mediocrity or will make some deep playoff runs. As I've mentioned before, the hitting base is there (Sizemore, Choo, Asdrubal, LaPorta, Santana, Chisenhall, Brantley, Valbuena).... we just need the pitching to develop. Should be interesting to watch anyways......

Anyways, let's take a quick look at the thrilling *cough, cough* Indians-related transactions of the past few weeks.

-Indians sign C Mike Redmond to 1 year $850,000 deal.

This deal is fairly blah and has already been extensively covered by an Indians-news starved blogosphere. Personally, I don't mind throwing Marson into the fire with an understanding that Santana might need more time to further adjust to the catching position in AAA. The bat is definitely there though and with his athleticism, superb blocking skills and cannon of an arm he could become a plus defender in the future. However, the Indians pitching staff will undoubtably be young and erratic in 2010. So it's not a bad idea to bring in an experienced Mike Redmond to help the pitchers and the new coaching staff. If a positive externality of Redmond's signing is that the pitchers pitch better and give something like $10 million dollars in extra value, then this deal is a good one. Unfortunately it's tough to measure such things.

-Indians sign IF Mark Grudzielanek and trade 3B Jesus Brito to Pirates for IF Brian Bixler

First off, I've always like Grudzielanek. Despite the fact that he didn't play in the big leagues last year, there's no harm in giving him a shot on a minor league deal. I'm not going to lose much sleep about the Indians losing Jesus Brito. He's a decent, low A prospect, but he's behind the likes of Wes Hodges, Lonnie Chisenhall and Kyle Bellows on the organizational 3B depth chart. Bixler might help, he might not (his 26K's in 44 2009 MLB AB is scary). These moves give the Indians some options to go along with Valbuena and Donald and hell depth is never a bad thing.

That's all for now. Can you smell Spring Training around the corner?

Your pal,

Alex Trebek

What does the US sugar quota have to do with the payroll inequality in the MLB?

Ok I admit that's a heady title, but bear with me. Before we analyze the US sugar quota and its parallels to the current large payroll inequality in baseball, let's make a few announcements and take a look at some recent Indians news. First off, I'm going to start posting more consistently in a segment called "Saturday Morning Musings." In these segments (this post represents the first one), we'll trudge through the week's events and analyze what has been, what could be and what could have been every Saturday morning. Fun, fun.

Furthermore, the Indians made a pair of signings this past week inking righties Austin Kearns and Shelly Duncan to minor league deals. Nothing exhilarating, but there's nothing wrong with bringing in some fresh blood on minor league deals to compete for the honor of being the final righty bat off the bench. In case you're interested take a look at '09 stats of the 4 righties competing for the 25th roster spot:

Austin Kearns: slash line- BA: .194/OBP: .336/SLG: .305, 3 HR and 17 RBI in 174 ABs

Shelly Duncan: .200/.200/.200, 0 HR and 1 RBI in 15 ABs (admittedly a very small sample)

Andy Marte: .232/.293/.400, 6 HR and 25 RBI in 155 ABs

Chris Gimenez: .144/.256/.243, 3 HR and 7 RBI in 111 ABs

*Cough* I guess my money's on Marte after he posted an "excellent" OPS+ of 85 (at least relative to the others).

Anyways, onwards to some prospectin'. Baseball America released their Indians top 10 list Wednesday. Here's how it shook out in case you missed it:

1. C Carlos Santana

2. 3B Lonnie Chisenhall

3. LHP Nick Hagadone

4. OF Nick Weglarz

5. OF Michael Brantley

6. RHP Jason Knapp

7. RHP Carlos Carrasco

8. RHP Hector Rondon

9. RHP Alex White

10. 2B/OF Jason Kipnis

After the top 2 (Badler considers Chisenhall an impact player like Santana), things start to get strange. Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus place a lot of weight upon a player's potential upside and thus Hector Rondon has suffered accordingly. Weglarz appears a little high. Although his plate discipline is excellent (18.1 BB% in '09) and he has definite power potential, he is limited by his speed (or more correctly a lack thereof) and his low positional value (either a poor fielding LF/1B or DH). Personally I'm not as high on White since he doesn't have a plus second pitch after his fastball and has somewhat awkward (perhaps injury prone) mechanics, but I understand the upside. Furthermore, the true strength of the Indians' system lies with it's incredible depth (especially with pitchers) and I dig the aggressive Kipnis grade based on his polished approach and possible move to 2B (although, it should be noted that the tribe tried the exact same thing with Trevor Crowe and it failed).

Anyways, with prospectin' out of the way let's move onwards and upwards to the "meat" of this post. What the hell does the US sugar quota have to do with the current economic inequality amongst baseball teams? Essentially, sugar can be grown more cheaply in other countries than in the USA. Thus beginning in 1938, the US Congress enacted a quota (limit) on the amount of sugar that could be imported in the United States to "protect" domestic producers/workers. Although this act was well intentioned, the United States simply possesses less than optimal conditions for sugar production (namely climate, but yes our labor force is more expensive to hire as well). A country like Brazil can more easily produce sugar due to climate and their relatively cheaper workforce. Sure, Brazil might have to clear some rainforest or other habitat to accommodate sugar production, but that's a sad consequence of sugar production anywhere as illustrated by the degradation of the everglades by the sugar industry in Florida.

Anyways, this sugar quota means that the cost of this inefficient US sugar production is spread amongst the consumers to the benefit of the few producers of US sugar. Not only do US consumers buy less sugar ("a reduction of the size of the pie" that has moreover increased sugar substitute consumption like high-fructose corn syrup), but consumers are forced to pay a much higher price than the world price for the sugar they do purchase. The producers use lobbyists and campaign contributions to ensure congress keeps sugar restrictions in place.

Phew. Well what does this have to do with baseball you ask? We currently have a economic landscape in baseball that is rigged to benefit a half dozen teams (namely the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Phillies etc.). The few teams that benefit from the current system are like the producers in our sugar analogy. However, the rest and broad majority of baseball teams (the consumers in our sugar analogy) are harmed by the current economic landscape. It's not only the Indians who are forced to trade or lose players to free agency like Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, but the Royals who lost Carlos Beltran and Rockies who lost Matt Holliday. The fact that the large majority of teams are hurt by this decision diminishes the MLB's potential fanbase and revenue due to disenchanted fans losing interest in the game. In effect the current system "reduces the overall size of the pie." Although the MLB has seen an increase in revenues lately, the NFL (and their revenue sharing that allows the tiny Green Bay market to compete with the behemoth New York market) has eclipsed the MLB as the "top dog" in America sports. Thus less baseball is consumed overall, so to speak, than would be if there was more parity and small and mid-market teams could keep more of their homegrown talent. This "reduction of the size of the pie" equates to the reduction in the amount of sugar consumed as a result of the sugar quota opposed to free trade.

There's the breakdown of the current system:

Winners- A couple large market teams (the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Phillies)

Losers- The bottom 22-25 teams (Indians, Twins, Reds, Pirates, Rays etc)

Overall- A net loss (fewer fans because of disenchantment with payroll inequality a "dead weight loss" to speak in economist terms)

To sum it up quickly: the current system benefits a couple of the top teams at the expense of everybody else and the overall advancement of major league baseball. I don't know enough to suggest specific detailed solutions, but there needs to be more revenue sharing for the health of baseball as a sport. Fans are turning away because small and mid-market teams have little to no chance to compete in the current system. These fans see the Yankees and Red Sox with their seemingly limitless payrolls gobble up grossly disproportionate shares of the MLB's talent. The Yankees and Red Sox will protest like the US sugar producers fight the abolition of sugar quota, but it's time for the rest of MLB teams to come together and fight for greater revenue sharing for their own good and the good of all of baseball.

Alex Trebek