First off, let's look at the big news concerning the promotions of Shapiro and Antonetti. I wholeheartedly agree with keeping these guys in the organization. I'm a staunch Shapiro supporter and his right hand man Antonetti deserves a shot to be GM. I think the Indians severe underachieving the past few years came from a mixture of bad luck, injuries, Eric Wedge and historically bad bullpens (almost beyond belief). On a tight payroll Shapiro has created teams with these expected win-loss (X-L) records the past 5 years (actual W-L in parentheses):
2005: 96-66 (93-69, -3)
2006: 89-73 (78-84, -11)
2007: 91-71 (96-66, +5)
2008: 85-77, (81-81, -4)
2009: 73-89, (65-97, -8)
That's pretty damn good for a small market team. I'm tired off these trolls blaming him... as if somebody else could do much better (I'm sure there are plenty out there who could do much worse). You have 2005 where the Indians should have made the playoffs, but lost 6 out of their last 7 to fall just short. By the way the White Sox X-L that year was 91-71 or 5 behind the that of the Tribe's, but they managed to make the playoffs anyways and win the World Series.
The Indians actually lost 11 more games than their X-L record said they should of in 2006. Hard to imagine how that offense with a stellar trio of CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Jake Westbrook heading the rotation finished so badly. Well I guess it comes down to THE BULLPEN. Grady Sizemore (.908 OPS at 23) and Travis Hafner (1.098 OPS) were otherworldly that year.
The only year the Indians actually outperformed their X-L record (2007) they collapsed in the ALCS.... In 2008 the Indians fell apart early, but came on strong at the end to finish 81-81 even after the Sabathia deal. Their X-L of 85-77 would have put them in the conversation for the division crown, which came down to a one game playoff between Minnesota and Chicago (both had 88 wins). And well, 2009 was just bad all around....
Using this evidence (teams that were or should have been in legitimate contention 4 out of last 5 years), I fully support promotions for Shapiro and Antonetti.
In other news, Russell Branyan is back for his fourth tour of duty in the Indians organization. For a reported 2 million dollars and another million in incentives, I like this deal. Hopefully he can have a hot first half and net the Indians a nice prospect, but moreover in light of the relatively optimistic CHONE and PECOTA standings predictions (Indians pegged at 81 and 77 wins respectively)... perhaps Branyan could push the Indians to the magical 82 or 83 wins that it may take to win this division (optimistic I know). Here's the probable lineup with Branyan onboard:
C- Lou Marson/Carlos Santana
1B- Russell Branyan
2B- Luis Valbuena
SS- Asdrubal Cabrera
3B- Jhonny Peralta
LF- Matt LaPorta
CF- Grady Sizemore
RF- Shin-Soo Choo
DH- Travis Hafner
Assuming health, that's a damned imposing lineup. Essentially Branyan takes the spot Brantley would have had in the lineup by shifting LaPorta out to leftfield. However, I have no problem with Brantley getting more seasoning at AAA. Maybe the lineup is a little too lefty heavy, but it's still impressive. If only, if only we had some pitching.....
Lastly, I got my copy of Baseball Prospectus' 2010 Handbook. It's always a good read and as a longtime reader of the publications such as The Onion I appreciate its snarky, sarcastic style. There were some nice nuggets of hope in the handbook, primarily concerning the tribe's offense, but surprisingly also about the Indians' pitching staff too.
BP's PECOTA predicted Grady Sizemore to bounce back and have the second highest WAR (5.4) in the AL behind only Joe Mauer (5.9). Furthermore, PECOTA remains a believer in Choo predicting that he'll have the fifth highest VORP (Value over Replacement Player) in the MLB amongst RF only behind Andre Eithier, Jayson Werth, Nick Markakis and Hunter Pence. Despite some predicted regression in '10 PECOTA likes young Asdrubal Cabrera's career prospects offering up impressive comparables in Tony Fernandez, Derek Jeter and Alan Trammell. Perhaps the most encouraging prediction was of rookie Carlos Santana who PECOTA saw as the catcher with the fifth highest VORP, a single slot beneath Victor Martinez.
On the pitching side there wasn't a great deal of optimism for '10, but a couple things caught my eye. One of Jeanmar Gomez's comparables was Javier Vazquez. Gomez sometimes gets forgotten within the incredible pitching depth of the Indians' system, but it's encouraging to see him favorably compared to Vazquez. Also, PECOTA likes Masterson and compared him to John Lackey. Hopefully he can learn to contain lefties a little better....
Well, that's all for now. Thanks for stopping by and to the readers who have e-mailed me insights/questions (I'll answer some reader questions in a future post). I'll be back next week with some first week opinions/reactions to tribe-related spring training intrigue.
Yours truly,
Alex Trebek
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