Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Mr. Shapiro's 2009 Trade Scorecard

I hope everybody is enjoying the holidays and braving the cold. I don't know about you guys, but the I'm ready for some baseball. Two months until spring training, two months until spring training..... With that let's take a stroll down baseball lane and look at Mr. Shapiro's 2009 trades.

Trade #1 (June 28, 2009):
St. Louis Received:
Util Mark DeRosa

Cleveland Received:
RHP Chris Perez
Player to be named later (RHP Jess Todd)

Shapiro marvelously leveraged DeRosa's versatility and hot streak (.799 OPS before trade, .696 OPS after) and got a pair of young righty flamethrowers that ranked as St. Louis' #3 and #4 prospects according to Baseball America. Perez experienced a rocky start and end to his year in Cleveland, but he had a marvelous stretch from July 8-September 5 where he pitched 20.1 scoreless innings and struck out 25. Pretty good for a guy that's not 25 until mid-2010.... he looks like Kerry Wood's incumbent. The lesser part of the deal, Jess Todd, put up an uninspiring 7.66 ERA (4.84 FIP) in his major league debut, but did strikeout 20 in 22.1 IP. With Sowers, Talbot and Grilli competing for the final bullpen spot, Todd will likely get a little more seasoning in AAA to start the season.

Grade: A-/B+

Trades #2, #3, #4, #5:
Indians Trade:
RHP Rafael Betancourt (Colorado)
1B/"OF" Ryan Garko (San Francisco)
RHP Carl Pavano (Minnesota)
C Kelly Shoppach (Tampa Bay)

Indians Receive:
RHP Connor Graham (Colorado)
LHP Scott Barnes (San Francisco)
RHP Yohan Pino (Minnesota)
RHP Mitch Talbot (Tampa Bay)

Even if these trades were just made for salary relief, they'd be worth making. Betancourt and Pavano were type A and B free agents respectively and both accepted arbitration. Thus it would have been too risky to have offered them arb and hoped for draft picks. Garko is ok, but LaPorta is likely much better and even Jordan Brown is similar at a tenth of Garko's arbitration number. Although Shoppach regressed from his superb '08, he's probably at least a league average catcher (his OPS+ the last three seasons: 102, 128, 98). With superstar Carlos Santana posed for a 2010 debut and capable, cheap options in Lou Marson and Wyatt Toregas the Indians had no use for a 3-4 million dollar catcher.

As for the Indians return.... it's pretty bland. Yohan Pino and Mitch Talbot are probably spot starters or maybe long men in the bullpen. It's not bad to have cheap, depth options like them, but Talbot is already out of options and Pino isn't exactly a head turner. According to BA, Barnes ranked as the Giants' 9th best prospect heading into '09 and Graham ranked as Colorado's 12th best prospect. They are both just solid arms with some upside who join the ranks of the likes of Eric Berger, Zach Putnam and Rob Bryson and lend the Indians impressive pitching depth.

Grade: B-/C+

Trade #6 (July 29th, 2009)
Philadelphia Received:
LHP Cliff Lee
OF Ben Francisco

Indians Received:
RHP Carlos Carrasco
RHP Jason Knapp
C Lou Marson
2B/SS Jason Donald

This trade has received its fair share of reactionary bad press. Granted, this deal certainly does not look like a slam dunk at the moment. However, I think it was the best move all things considered. If the Indians had kept Lee, they'd be at best the sixth best team in the AL in 2010 behind the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Angels, Rangers and arguably others (Twins, Mariners and A's). Thus it was the most rational decision to spin Lee for the best return as soon as possible in an attempt to cobble together a winner while Grady is still under contract. It's better to utilize the 13 million or so left on Lee's deal and invest that into drafts/international signings.

Furthermore, I believe Carrasco represented the centerpiece of this trade as alluded to by Shapiro in his interview with Castrovince about "undervalued commodities." Carrasco had FIPs of 4.01 (20 starts) and 2.92 (6 games) and K/BB rates of 2.95 and 5.14 at AAA Reading and Columbus respectively. For pete's sake, he's a 22 year old pitcher with extensive experience at AAA who has a plus fastball and curve and a plus plus changeup. He may have composure problems, but he's got time to mature and an excellent coaching staff to help him out. Jason Knapp has an electric arm, but his youth and injuries concern me. He's a great high-risk, high-reward add to this system nonetheless. Marson appears to be a good bet to be a solid, league average catcher which is more than enough considering he'll back up SuperSantana. Jason Donald had a down year, but at a minimum he should be a good utility man. A decent, if unspectacular return.

Grade: C

Trade #7 (July 31, 2009)
Boston Received:
C Victor Martinez

Cleveland Received:
RHP Justin Masterson
LHP Nick Hagadone
RHP Bryan Price

This trade was personally the most difficult to stomach. Victor's lively and festive personality endeared him to me and he easily was my favorite player. However, this team had no use for a good, but aging C/1B even at a reduced salary. Thus Shapiro pulled the trigger on this deal. It may be hard to remember, but Victor had experienced a dismal July. His .530 OPS in July probably sapped his trade value somewhat, but all things considered Shapiro still managed a commendable return. I love Masterson and think he can become a #3 and perhaps a #2 in the mold of Jake Westbrook (and Bill James agrees). According to BA, Nick Hagadone "projects as either a frontline starter or a dynamic reliever" and this enormous lefty should be on the fast track to Cleveland. Bryan Price is another solid arm to throw on the organizational pile.

Grade: A-

It's always tough to go through a rebuild. Thankfully Shapiro, despite public pressure, did what he had to do to put the Indians in a position to compete in a couple years. Anyways, we shall see.....

Alex Trebek



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