SP Jake Westbrook. Westbrook won 49 games between 2004 and 2006 and looked to be about as steady as a pitcher comes. He took a signed a discounted extension of 3 years and 33 million dollars (2008-2010) at the beginning of the 2007 season. The tribe's rock-solid #2 starter looked to be a fixture in the Indians' rotation for years to come. However, after a decent 2007 and admirable effort in game 7 of the ALCS (after Sabathia and Carmona laid large respective eggs the two games before), Westbrook made 5 starts over 2008 and 2009, although he did sport a good 3.12 ERA (sarcasm). Coming off Tommy John Surgery, Westbrook hopes to be back at the beginning of the 2010 campaign, but take this with a grain of salt because he was supposed to be back in June of 2009, but well that didn't happen. As it stands, Westbrook is a big old question mark.
SP Justin Masterson. I guess Masterson is the de facto #2 starter as it stands. His CG, 4H, 12K performance to end the year places him above Aaron Laffey and his 2IP, 8ER performance on this list. Masterson has an exciting, electric arm and is fun to watch. Although I have some reservations about the Lee trade, the Martinez trade which netted Masterson, Nick Hagadone and Brian Pryce looks like a solid return to me. Although he has a tough time against lefties (.869 OPS against), righties can't hit him (.586 OPS against). On an encouraging note, amongst pitchers with at least 120 IP in '09 his FIP (4.04) was roughly the same as Matt Cain (3.89) and James Shields (4.02) plus he's only 25 next year. I think he could easily settle in as a league average starter by as early as next year and potentially could become a #2/3 guy.
SP Aaron Laffey busted onto the big league scene after Cliff Lee's demotion to AAA during the 2007 season (seems like another world, eh?). He pitched admirably that season and got the call again early in the 2008 season. He pitched well until a rocky July and after another demotion he found himself back in the minors. After a brief stint in the minors in April of 09, Laffey established himself as the Indians' second best pitcher in April and May (as a starter and reliever) until a damn oblique injury shelved him until mid-July. Overall, he pitched well for the tribe, but faded badly at the end of the season. His ERA ballooned from 3.36 on September 2 to 4.44 by the end of the season (only 5 starts). Hopefully, Laffey (just 25) can regain his consistency and provide some quality work in 2010. Does 30 starts, 11 wins and a 4.40 ERA sound about right?
SP David Huff received the call up to the majors in mid-May and led the team with 11 wins. He sported an ugly ERA of 5.61, but his FIP was decent (4.69) and identical to Clay Buchholz (who is 8 days Huff's senior). Huff is older (26) than both Laffey and Masterson and needs to work on his BB/K numbers (1.59 in Cleveland in 2010) and hopefully he'll come closer to his AAA mark of 5.40 in 2008 (16 starts). I like Huff better than Sowers, but I think he's probably just a number 4 or 5 starter.
SP Fausto Carmona. I could say a lot here, but everybody knows his story. Rocky 2006, Great 2007, Rocky 2008, Awful 2009. Carmona's arm is excellent, but his head is all over the place. He's capable of brillance, but he's disrupted by his volatile emotions too often. I think Rob Neyer put it best back on July 30th:
"Carmona seems to me a delicate sort of flower, who will always be just a lousy outing or a small injury from shriveling again, perhaps permanently."
Sadly, I think Carmona peaked in Game 2 of the 2007 ALDS. But, I've been wrong before and Carmona is only 26 next year.
This pitching staff could be decent, but I believe that there are so many question marks (health, inexperience, composure), that it will be well below average. I'm a fan of Hector Rondon and Carlos Carrasco (despite his lousy MLB debut), but I'd like them both to get some more seasoning at AAA. Rondon is just 22 next year while Carrasco is just 23. I fear Carrasco could turn into a Carmona redux, a great arm (from the scouting reports I've read he has an above average fastball, change and curve), but poor control over his emotions. I wouldn't put too much credence into his September debut (take a look at the horrendous early MLB experiences of Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter and Johan Santana). Both of these guys have top of the rotation potential and that's a welcome change from the long line of soft toss lefties this system has produced of late.
I'd spend 4 or 5 million on an innings eater to provide some consistency for this staff (like Pavano last year). The free agent market is littered with pitchers with question marks and who would probably accept a one year contract at a moderate salary (Bedard, Duchscherer, hell even Pavano himself).
Here's a look at our probably 2010 staff:
RHP Jake Westbrook
RHP Justin Masterson
LHP Aaron Laffey
LHP David Huff
RHP Fausto Carmona/Free agent signing
Depth:
RHP Carlos Carrasco
RHP Hector Rondon
LHP Jeremy Sowers (who I like as a long man in the bullpen)
RHP Anthony Reyes (just kidding)
There's a number of guys at AA/AAA who'd probably be ok to spot start (like Scotty "Shoddy" Lewis), but I won't bother to meticulously list them here.
One last thing, I hope the Indians hire Bobby V. I know he's expensive, but the tribe saved a ton of money through their firesales of the past two years. Valentine would be a tireless promoter of this ballclub and fight for every inch. He's got a fire that I like and this team has lacked. He might even get Jhonny Peralta to elicit an emotion......
Alex Trebek
PS: Twitter: "trebek90"
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