The Pen Plan

I’m in the midst of a bunch of papers and whatnot before Thanksgiving Break, so I’ll wait a week before I complete the World Series portion of the “2012 Playoffs.” Anyways, the offseason is still slow and since the Indians don’t look to pull off any major moves anyways, let’s take a look at the tribe’s 2010 relief corps.

Bullpen Spot Secure:

RHP Kerry Wood- Wood was a serviceable closer last year, but he was nowhere near worth 10 million especially on a cash-strapped team like the Indians. The market is flush with closers this offseason and the Indians likely wouldn’t get anything prospect-wise for the Texas flamethrower and would have to eat a significant portion of his 10.5 million dollar contract (his 11 million dollar 2011 vesting option doesn’t help). Worse case scenario: he pitches bad this year and the Indians don’t allow his option to vest. Best case scenario: he pitches well and the tribe can trade him to a contender in need of bullpen help for a nice prospect and salary relief. If he’s on the Indians’ roster after July 31st, the Indians won’t let his 2011 option vest (unless in the unlikely event the Indians are in contention).

RHP Chris Perez- Perhaps Shapiro’s best deal of last year’s firesale was prying Chris Perez and Jess Todd away from the St. Louis Cardinals for super utilityman Mark DeRosa. Here’s what Baseball America had to say about him in this year’s handbook:

“Perez has a wicked fastball… He can throw it consistently at 95 mph and dial it up to 97-98 when necessary. His fastball has natural sink and he offsets it with a biting slider than hums in the high-80s… Command and inexperience continue to block Perez from being dubbed St. Louis’ (Cleveland’s) closer.”

Sign me up. Perez flashed his promise during his hot-streak in August, but was humbled by a rocky September. Perez looks to be Kerry Wood’s likely successor.

LHP Tony Sipp- Sipp is the tribe’s most promising left-handed reliever, well since Rafael Perez fell apart. To get anything out of a 45th round draft pick is a bonus, much less a possible late-inning left hander. Sipp’s sported an outstanding 10.80 K/9 rate, but his 5.63 BB/9 rate leaves something to be desired. Hopefully he’ll avoid imploding like so many of the Indians’ homegrown relievers…..

Likely Bullpen Arms:

RHP Jensen Lewis- Although Jensen wasn’t a complete disaster in ’09, he came nowhere near the promise he held after his excellent closer cameo at the end of ’08. In April it seemed like he was blowing every other game, but he retained a decent K rate (8.41 K/9) and could still be an effective mid-innings reliever.

LHP Rafael Perez- Oh, Rafael….. Although, Raffy Perez looks to get another chance in ’10 and Bill James published a bullish projection, one must wonder if Perez will go down as another Fernando Cabrera for a nice start to his career, but atrocious continuation. He had absolutely no control in ’09 although his 4.81 FIP was nowhere near as bad as his 7.31 ERA. Anyways, he’s not dead yet….

RHP Joe Smith- Mr. Smith, the famed ROOGY obtained from the Mets in the Franklin Gutierrez swap, was fairly bland in his Indians debut. Smith was decent, if not great, when he was healthy in ’09. Should be a solid, 6-7 inning matchup guy if he can stay healthy.

Contenders for the last bullpen spot:

I’m operating under the assumption that the tribe will carry 7 relievers given the unstable nature of their young pitching staff.

LHP Jeremy Sowers- Everybody knows Sowers. The former first round pick in ’04, he shot through the minors, putting up very impressive numbers. He flashed his promise in a ’06 callup going 7-4 with a 3.57ERA. However, since his nice debut Sowers has been somewhere between mediocre and bad. Sowers often starts games strong, but falters in the mid-innings meaning that he could be prime for a long guy out of the bullpen… especially considering that the rotation has lots of question marks. Sowers had a decent 4.77 FIP in 22 starts in 2009, but an awful BB/K ratio concerns me and leads me to believe that he’s bullpen bound (0.98, 52 BB and 51 K’s). Fun fact: Sowers has only picked up 10 wins in his 57 starts since 2007.

RHP Jess Todd- Todd was roughed up in his first taste of MLB action, but he shows promise as a middle innings relief, perhaps as an 8th inning guy if he realizes his potential. From the 2009 BA Handbook:

“Todd augments an attack dog mentality with tremendous control of three pitches- the cutter, an 88-91 MPH sinker and a tight slider… to some, Todd profiles as a reliever because there’s a lingering concern his frame isn’t built to handle the grind and innings of the long big league season. His repertoire also may be better suited for the bullpen until he refines a reliable changeup.”

Todd has promise, but a little time in AAA certainly wouldn’t hurt….

RHP Jose Veras- Veras a cast-off courtesy of the Yankees. He seems to have a nice arm and could be a solid addition to this bullpen…. Decent 2008 numbers offer some hope (3.59 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 9.83 K/9)

There you go…. Bullpens are simply volatile. Case in point: I thought the tribe would sport one of the best pens going into ’08 and ’09, but well you know….. Hopefully, at least regression to the mean will be on the tribe’s side next year. Anyways, now you have something to think about while you’re enjoying this wonderful weather!

Alex Trebek