Ka-Ching, I'm on Thanksgiving Break. A whole week of reading, relaxing and seeing some old friends back home. Sadly the first big piece of news to hit is that Omar Vizquel is close to signing with the White Sox. I wish Omar the best, but couldn't he have picked another franchise? I believe I'm in the majority when I say that the White Sox are my least favorite AL Central franchise. Why couldn't Omar have come to help tutor Asdrubal and Luis in their middle infield adventures? Sandy came back to help Carlos and Lou.....
Anyways, let's start with the big news of the week: the 40 man roster. Tony did his normal superb job in reviewing the moves the tribe made with their roster. Nobody was removed, although if I was Chris Gimenez, Wyatt Toregas or Anthony Reyes, I wouldn't get too comfortable. I'm glad the Indians didn't roster any of the numerous back-end starters/middle relievers that aren't necessarily major league ready. Guys like Yohan Pino, Chuck Lofgren, Josh Tomlin, Steven Wright and Ryan Edell are nice depth options, but they don't warrant a roster spot if they're blocking guys with more potential and upside.
While fact that Jordan Brown, Nick Weglarz, Jason Donald and Jeanmar Gomez were rostered comes as no surprise, the other three new members of the 40 man are questionable. Let's start with Kelvin de la Cruz. Baseball America ranked de la Cruz as the Indians' seventh best prospect coming into 2009 noting:
"De la Cruz now sits at 89-92 mph and touches 93-94 with his four-seam fastball. He's still growing and getting stronger, so he could add more velocity. His best pitch is his 75-77 mph curveball, which has two-plane depth and neutralizes lefties and righties. He also mixes in a two-seam fastball with good sink and a changeup that shows promise.... De la Cruz again will be one of the high Class A Carolina League's youngest pitchers in 2009. How quickly he can make the necessary mechanical adjustments will dictate the speed of his ascent."
Although de la Cruz battled injuries and could only make 5 starts in '09, his talent is undeniable. His option clock is ticking and the Indians are betting he's big league ready by 2012 or at the very latest the beginning of '13, but I believe that's a risk they have to take considering this guy's talent.
The Indians also decided to roster young shortstop Carlos Rivero. Rivero spent his 2009 season in Akron and I remember going to an Aeros game at the end of June and saw that his average was hovering right around the Mendoza Line. However, Rivero flashed his talent in the second half of the season (.280 BA, .797 OPS) and at the AFL (.318 BA, .859 OPS in 22G). With another hat tip to Tony for those stats, let's turn to what BA had to say about him in '09 handbook:
"Rivero has plus power that's evident in batting practice, though that power has yet to manifest itself in games with much frequency. As his frame continues to fill out, his power should continue to grow. He has a sound swing that generates plenty of bat speed, and he is a good athlete. Defensively, he offers soft hands and a strong arm. While Rivero has the tools, the gap between his potential and his present ability is still significant. He struggles to recognize breaking pitches, and he needs to get his hands into a better load position. He has the arm for shortstop, but 16 of his 24 errors last season came on throws. He's a below average runner with below-average lateral range, and scouts from other club officials believe he could become another Jhonny Peralta."The problem with Rivero, as noted in BA's piece, is that although he's got the raw tools..... he's still a long way from putting everything together. Rivero turns 22 next May and he'll likely need at least another year at AA and probably another year at AAA. With his option clock ticking, this puts the tribe in a hard place if he continues his slow development. Still it's hard to expose talent like this.....
Finally, we come to Wes Hodges. Hodges was a 2nd round pick out of Georgia Tech in '06 and posted good lines of .288/.367/.473 in '07 at Kinston and .290/.354/.466 in '08 at Akron. However, the knock on Hodges is his defense and as BA noted:
"[Hodges] committed 28 errors in 125 games at third base with Akron, then eight more in 22 AFL games."
Although Hodges represents a right handed bat option for the predominantly left handed Indians lineup, his atrocious fielding proceeds him. When you're projected starting rotation is Jake Westbrook, Justin Masterson, Aaron Laffey, David Huff and Fausto Carmona/Carlos Carrasco, all of whom are very young or sinkerballers, you want a good defensive 3B. On top of that, the two guys ahead of Hodges, Peralta and Marte, are both right handers themselves. Hodges injury concerns and his .265/.307/.383 line in 359 PA at AAA last year as a 25 year old makes we wish the tribe had protected Matt McBride instead.
I know Matt McBride had a pedestrian slash line of .247/.301/.427 in 406 PA at Akron this year after his monster start at Kinston (.405/.453/.667 in 139 PA), but he's rebounded at the AFL and has put up an unbelievable line of .378/.511/.649 line there in 22 games. He has versatility and can catch (although Santana appears to have that covered), play third and the corner outfield. Here's what John Sickels had to say about him after seeing him at the AFL.
"I like McBride quite a bit as a sleeper. He won’t be a gold glove catcher but he’s not terrible, and his bat has a lot of potential if he can show some improved plate discipline at higher levels."
McBride just seems too valuable to expose especially considering Hodges' faults.
Anyways onwards and upwards to Kevin Goldstein's top 11 Indians prospects (with 4 bonus prospects). If you don't have a Baseball Prospectus subscription, I strongly recommended it. You won't get better in-depth baseball commentary anywhere else.
Five-Star Prospects
1. Carlos Santana, C
Four-Star Prospects
2. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B
3. Alex White, RHP
4. Jason Knapp, RHP
5. Nick Hagadone, LHP
Three-Star Prospects
6. Hector Rondon, RHP
7. Lou Marson, C
8. Jason Kipnis, OF/2B
9. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
10. Michael Brantley, OF
11. Zach Putnam, RHP
Four More:
12. Jess Todd, RHP
13. Nick Weglarz, OF/1B
14. TJ House, LHP
15. Jason Donald, SS
Anyways, Goldstein agrees with about everybody else in the prospect watching community that Carlos Santana is an elite prospect. Project Prospect ranked him as the SECOND best position prospect in baseball at the end of the MiLB season. Goldstein says this about the gem of the Casey Blake trade:
"Santana's bat is so special that if he was a first-base prospect, he'd still be elite. His approach is big league-ready, as he never swings at a bad pitch. As one scout put it, "When he does finally swing, special things tend to happen." His power is plus to plus-plus to all fields, and for a player with his strength, he maintains an outstanding contact rate. He's a solid defender with above-average arm strength."
Sounds pretty damn good to me. He looks a little like Victor Marintez, v.2, bigger, faster, stronger.... though I hope I didn't just jinx him. I can't wait to see him in the big leagues midseason (around the Super Two cutoff).
Goldstein was also high on Chisenhall and admitted in his chat that he almost placed him in the "Five Star Prospect" category. His projection of Chisenhall (membership required) states:
"If he continues to develop, look for Chisenhall to be a .300-hitting third baseman with 20-25 home runs annually"
However, after Santana and Chisenhall, Goldstein's list is surprising. Goldstein favors high upside guys over surer things closer to the big leagues. There's no doubt that Alex White, Jason Knapp and Nick Hagadone are all supremely talented, but I think its a stretch that they're all ranked above Hector Rondon. The Venezuelan righty just completed a marvelous season and is just a stone's throw away from the big leagues going into his age 22 season (2009: Rondon at AA-2.51 FIP, 4.56 K/BB in 15G, at AAA-3.56 FIP, 4.92 K/BB in 13G). Goldstein admitted Rondon was close to a four star prospect in the comment section and stated in his assessment: "He projects as a good third starter with some room for growth." I guess I might be biased by my Indians loyalty, but I think Rondon has top-of-the-rotation potential (and Project Prospect agrees-if you check out the chat replay)
Goldstein isn't a Weglarz fan and left Alexander Perez and Jeanmar Gomez completely off the list. However, the exclusion of Perez and Gomez should be viewed more as a compliment to the system's incredible depth than anything else.
Anywho, I trust most you guys have already seen Manny Acta's interview with Les Levine. I don't know about you guys, but Acta's radiant personality is a breath of fresh air after Eric Wedge and Charlie Manuel. I can't wait to see this guy in action...
Take it easy,
Alex Trebek
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