Saturday Morning Musings-"The Indians, Victor Wang and Transactions"

Hey there, where is the new year going? Are we really already nearly a month into 2010? Well, I'm not complaining because that means we're that much closer to Spring Training and some major league baseball. Anyways, let's take a look around....

Using Victor Wang's prospect value research from the Hardball Times blogger "dougdirt" of John Sickels' Prospect Blog created this interesting farm system ranking that slotted the Indians as #1 in baseball. I'd take any prospect ranking with a grain of salt, but it's always nice to see the tribe's farm system ranked highly.

Let's take a closer look at Victor Wang's research. Carlos Santana appears to be a Top 10 prospect according to respected sources such as Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Project Prospect and John Sickels so we'll group him there. According to Mr. Wang's research Santana has a (rough comp in parenthesis according to "Wins Above Bench"):

10% chance of busting (Andy Marte)

50% chance of contributing (Ben Francisco/Casey Blake)

25% chance of being an everyday guy (Victor Martinez)

15% chance of being a star (a Grady Sizemore of catching)

We could do a specific evaluation for Chisenhall, Rondon, Brantley and the rest of the prospects. However instead of dissecting tribe prospects one by one, let's see what to expect from the "wave of arms". According to John Sickels' latest Indians prospect rankings the Indians have 6 pitchers (Hagadone, Rondon, White, Carrasco, Knapp and House) ranked as "Grade B or B-". Wang's research found that 52% of Grade B pitching prospects bust, so roughly 3 of these pitchers will at least be a major league contributer and it's likely that a couple could be more.

Onwards and upwards, the Indians had an impressive 15, yes 15, Grade C+ prospects (12 pitchers). Sickels identified 65 Indians guys who were at least "C" level. Wang found that about 75% of Grade C pitchers busted so that means that the Indians will most likely get about 3 useful or better pitchers out of that group of 12 C+ pitchers. Additionally if we assume that half of the unnamed Grade C prospects (of out of the 65 Sickels identified) are pitchers.... that gives us another 20 arms and possibly another 5 useful pitchers. That means that statistically speaking the Indians can expect about 11 major league caliber arms from their farm system.

The tribe undoubtably has pitching quantity, but the question remains will a couple of these guys take it to the next level? That will determine if the Indians will be mired in mediocrity or will make some deep playoff runs. As I've mentioned before, the hitting base is there (Sizemore, Choo, Asdrubal, LaPorta, Santana, Chisenhall, Brantley, Valbuena).... we just need the pitching to develop. Should be interesting to watch anyways......

Anyways, let's take a quick look at the thrilling *cough, cough* Indians-related transactions of the past few weeks.

-Indians sign C Mike Redmond to 1 year $850,000 deal.

This deal is fairly blah and has already been extensively covered by an Indians-news starved blogosphere. Personally, I don't mind throwing Marson into the fire with an understanding that Santana might need more time to further adjust to the catching position in AAA. The bat is definitely there though and with his athleticism, superb blocking skills and cannon of an arm he could become a plus defender in the future. However, the Indians pitching staff will undoubtably be young and erratic in 2010. So it's not a bad idea to bring in an experienced Mike Redmond to help the pitchers and the new coaching staff. If a positive externality of Redmond's signing is that the pitchers pitch better and give something like $10 million dollars in extra value, then this deal is a good one. Unfortunately it's tough to measure such things.

-Indians sign IF Mark Grudzielanek and trade 3B Jesus Brito to Pirates for IF Brian Bixler

First off, I've always like Grudzielanek. Despite the fact that he didn't play in the big leagues last year, there's no harm in giving him a shot on a minor league deal. I'm not going to lose much sleep about the Indians losing Jesus Brito. He's a decent, low A prospect, but he's behind the likes of Wes Hodges, Lonnie Chisenhall and Kyle Bellows on the organizational 3B depth chart. Bixler might help, he might not (his 26K's in 44 2009 MLB AB is scary). These moves give the Indians some options to go along with Valbuena and Donald and hell depth is never a bad thing.

That's all for now. Can you smell Spring Training around the corner?

Your pal,

Alex Trebek

What does the US sugar quota have to do with the payroll inequality in the MLB?

Ok I admit that's a heady title, but bear with me. Before we analyze the US sugar quota and its parallels to the current large payroll inequality in baseball, let's make a few announcements and take a look at some recent Indians news. First off, I'm going to start posting more consistently in a segment called "Saturday Morning Musings." In these segments (this post represents the first one), we'll trudge through the week's events and analyze what has been, what could be and what could have been every Saturday morning. Fun, fun.

Furthermore, the Indians made a pair of signings this past week inking righties Austin Kearns and Shelly Duncan to minor league deals. Nothing exhilarating, but there's nothing wrong with bringing in some fresh blood on minor league deals to compete for the honor of being the final righty bat off the bench. In case you're interested take a look at '09 stats of the 4 righties competing for the 25th roster spot:

Austin Kearns: slash line- BA: .194/OBP: .336/SLG: .305, 3 HR and 17 RBI in 174 ABs

Shelly Duncan: .200/.200/.200, 0 HR and 1 RBI in 15 ABs (admittedly a very small sample)

Andy Marte: .232/.293/.400, 6 HR and 25 RBI in 155 ABs

Chris Gimenez: .144/.256/.243, 3 HR and 7 RBI in 111 ABs

*Cough* I guess my money's on Marte after he posted an "excellent" OPS+ of 85 (at least relative to the others).

Anyways, onwards to some prospectin'. Baseball America released their Indians top 10 list Wednesday. Here's how it shook out in case you missed it:

1. C Carlos Santana

2. 3B Lonnie Chisenhall

3. LHP Nick Hagadone

4. OF Nick Weglarz

5. OF Michael Brantley

6. RHP Jason Knapp

7. RHP Carlos Carrasco

8. RHP Hector Rondon

9. RHP Alex White

10. 2B/OF Jason Kipnis

After the top 2 (Badler considers Chisenhall an impact player like Santana), things start to get strange. Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus place a lot of weight upon a player's potential upside and thus Hector Rondon has suffered accordingly. Weglarz appears a little high. Although his plate discipline is excellent (18.1 BB% in '09) and he has definite power potential, he is limited by his speed (or more correctly a lack thereof) and his low positional value (either a poor fielding LF/1B or DH). Personally I'm not as high on White since he doesn't have a plus second pitch after his fastball and has somewhat awkward (perhaps injury prone) mechanics, but I understand the upside. Furthermore, the true strength of the Indians' system lies with it's incredible depth (especially with pitchers) and I dig the aggressive Kipnis grade based on his polished approach and possible move to 2B (although, it should be noted that the tribe tried the exact same thing with Trevor Crowe and it failed).

Anyways, with prospectin' out of the way let's move onwards and upwards to the "meat" of this post. What the hell does the US sugar quota have to do with the current economic inequality amongst baseball teams? Essentially, sugar can be grown more cheaply in other countries than in the USA. Thus beginning in 1938, the US Congress enacted a quota (limit) on the amount of sugar that could be imported in the United States to "protect" domestic producers/workers. Although this act was well intentioned, the United States simply possesses less than optimal conditions for sugar production (namely climate, but yes our labor force is more expensive to hire as well). A country like Brazil can more easily produce sugar due to climate and their relatively cheaper workforce. Sure, Brazil might have to clear some rainforest or other habitat to accommodate sugar production, but that's a sad consequence of sugar production anywhere as illustrated by the degradation of the everglades by the sugar industry in Florida.

Anyways, this sugar quota means that the cost of this inefficient US sugar production is spread amongst the consumers to the benefit of the few producers of US sugar. Not only do US consumers buy less sugar ("a reduction of the size of the pie" that has moreover increased sugar substitute consumption like high-fructose corn syrup), but consumers are forced to pay a much higher price than the world price for the sugar they do purchase. The producers use lobbyists and campaign contributions to ensure congress keeps sugar restrictions in place.

Phew. Well what does this have to do with baseball you ask? We currently have a economic landscape in baseball that is rigged to benefit a half dozen teams (namely the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Phillies etc.). The few teams that benefit from the current system are like the producers in our sugar analogy. However, the rest and broad majority of baseball teams (the consumers in our sugar analogy) are harmed by the current economic landscape. It's not only the Indians who are forced to trade or lose players to free agency like Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, but the Royals who lost Carlos Beltran and Rockies who lost Matt Holliday. The fact that the large majority of teams are hurt by this decision diminishes the MLB's potential fanbase and revenue due to disenchanted fans losing interest in the game. In effect the current system "reduces the overall size of the pie." Although the MLB has seen an increase in revenues lately, the NFL (and their revenue sharing that allows the tiny Green Bay market to compete with the behemoth New York market) has eclipsed the MLB as the "top dog" in America sports. Thus less baseball is consumed overall, so to speak, than would be if there was more parity and small and mid-market teams could keep more of their homegrown talent. This "reduction of the size of the pie" equates to the reduction in the amount of sugar consumed as a result of the sugar quota opposed to free trade.

There's the breakdown of the current system:

Winners- A couple large market teams (the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Phillies)

Losers- The bottom 22-25 teams (Indians, Twins, Reds, Pirates, Rays etc)

Overall- A net loss (fewer fans because of disenchantment with payroll inequality a "dead weight loss" to speak in economist terms)

To sum it up quickly: the current system benefits a couple of the top teams at the expense of everybody else and the overall advancement of major league baseball. I don't know enough to suggest specific detailed solutions, but there needs to be more revenue sharing for the health of baseball as a sport. Fans are turning away because small and mid-market teams have little to no chance to compete in the current system. These fans see the Yankees and Red Sox with their seemingly limitless payrolls gobble up grossly disproportionate shares of the MLB's talent. The Yankees and Red Sox will protest like the US sugar producers fight the abolition of sugar quota, but it's time for the rest of MLB teams to come together and fight for greater revenue sharing for their own good and the good of all of baseball.

Alex Trebek

Mr. Shapiro's 2009 Trade Scorecard

I hope everybody is enjoying the holidays and braving the cold. I don't know about you guys, but the I'm ready for some baseball. Two months until spring training, two months until spring training..... With that let's take a stroll down baseball lane and look at Mr. Shapiro's 2009 trades.

Trade #1 (June 28, 2009):

St. Louis Received:

Util Mark DeRosa

Cleveland Received:

RHP Chris Perez

Player to be named later (RHP Jess Todd)

Shapiro marvelously leveraged DeRosa's versatility and hot streak (.799 OPS before trade, .696 OPS after) and got a pair of young righty flamethrowers that ranked as St. Louis' #3 and #4 prospects according to Baseball America. Perez experienced a rocky start and end to his year in Cleveland, but he had a marvelous stretch from July 8-September 5 where he pitched 20.1 scoreless innings and struck out 25. Pretty good for a guy that's not 25 until mid-2010.... he looks like Kerry Wood's incumbent. The lesser part of the deal, Jess Todd, put up an uninspiring 7.66 ERA (4.84 FIP) in his major league debut, but did strikeout 20 in 22.1 IP. With Sowers, Talbot and Grilli competing for the final bullpen spot, Todd will likely get a little more seasoning in AAA to start the season.

Grade: A-/B+

Trades #2, #3, #4, #5:

Indians Trade:

RHP Rafael Betancourt (Colorado)

1B/"OF" Ryan Garko (San Francisco)

RHP Carl Pavano (Minnesota)

C Kelly Shoppach (Tampa Bay)

Indians Receive:

RHP Connor Graham (Colorado)

LHP Scott Barnes (San Francisco)

RHP Yohan Pino (Minnesota)

RHP Mitch Talbot (Tampa Bay)

Even if these trades were just made for salary relief, they'd be worth making. Betancourt and Pavano were type A and B free agents respectively and both accepted arbitration. Thus it would have been too risky to have offered them arb and hoped for draft picks. Garko is ok, but LaPorta is likely much better and even Jordan Brown is similar at a tenth of Garko's arbitration number. Although Shoppach regressed from his superb '08, he's probably at least a league average catcher (his OPS+ the last three seasons: 102, 128, 98). With superstar Carlos Santana posed for a 2010 debut and capable, cheap options in Lou Marson and Wyatt Toregas the Indians had no use for a 3-4 million dollar catcher.

As for the Indians return.... it's pretty bland. Yohan Pino and Mitch Talbot are probably spot starters or maybe long men in the bullpen. It's not bad to have cheap, depth options like them, but Talbot is already out of options and Pino isn't exactly a head turner. According to BA, Barnes ranked as the Giants' 9th best prospect heading into '09 and Graham ranked as Colorado's 12th best prospect. They are both just solid arms with some upside who join the ranks of the likes of Eric Berger, Zach Putnam and Rob Bryson and lend the Indians impressive pitching depth.

Grade: B-/C+

Trade #6 (July 29th, 2009)

Philadelphia Received:

LHP Cliff Lee

OF Ben Francisco

Indians Received:

RHP Carlos Carrasco

RHP Jason Knapp

C Lou Marson

2B/SS Jason Donald

This trade has received its fair share of reactionary bad press. Granted, this deal certainly does not look like a slam dunk at the moment. However, I think it was the best move all things considered. If the Indians had kept Lee, they'd be at best the sixth best team in the AL in 2010 behind the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Angels, Rangers and arguably others (Twins, Mariners and A's). Thus it was the most rational decision to spin Lee for the best return as soon as possible in an attempt to cobble together a winner while Grady is still under contract. It's better to utilize the 13 million or so left on Lee's deal and invest that into drafts/international signings.

Furthermore, I believe Carrasco represented the centerpiece of this trade as alluded to by Shapiro in his interview with Castrovince about "undervalued commodities." Carrasco had FIPs of 4.01 (20 starts) and 2.92 (6 games) and K/BB rates of 2.95 and 5.14 at AAA Reading and Columbus respectively. For pete's sake, he's a 22 year old pitcher with extensive experience at AAA who has a plus fastball and curve and a plus plus changeup. He may have composure problems, but he's got time to mature and an excellent coaching staff to help him out. Jason Knapp has an electric arm, but his youth and injuries concern me. He's a great high-risk, high-reward add to this system nonetheless. Marson appears to be a good bet to be a solid, league average catcher which is more than enough considering he'll back up SuperSantana. Jason Donald had a down year, but at a minimum he should be a good utility man. A decent, if unspectacular return.

Grade: C

Trade #7 (July 31, 2009)

Boston Received:

C Victor Martinez

Cleveland Received:

RHP Justin Masterson

LHP Nick Hagadone

RHP Bryan Price

This trade was personally the most difficult to stomach. Victor's lively and festive personality endeared him to me and he easily was my favorite player. However, this team had no use for a good, but aging C/1B even at a reduced salary. Thus Shapiro pulled the trigger on this deal. It may be hard to remember, but Victor had experienced a dismal July. His .530 OPS in July probably sapped his trade value somewhat, but all things considered Shapiro still managed a commendable return. I love Masterson and think he can become a #3 and perhaps a #2 in the mold of Jake Westbrook (and Bill James agrees). According to BA, Nick Hagadone "projects as either a frontline starter or a dynamic reliever" and this enormous lefty should be on the fast track to Cleveland. Bryan Price is another solid arm to throw on the organizational pile.

Grade: A-

It's always tough to go through a rebuild. Thankfully Shapiro, despite public pressure, did what he had to do to put the Indians in a position to compete in a couple years. Anyways, we shall see.....

Alex Trebek

Mr. Shapiro's 2008 Trade Scorecard

On a bitter cold, but beautiful Saturday morning in central Ohio let's take a look at Mr. Shapiro's '08-'09 trades. Shapiro made a name for himself through trades, like this one, so it seems like a good starting point. Now while it's a little presumptuous to judge trades only months after the fact, it's fun nonetheless.

Trade (July 7, 2008):

Brewers Acquires:

LHP CC Sabathia

Clevelands Acquires:

1B/LF Matt LaPorta

Player to be named later (OF Michael Brantley)

RHP Rob Bryson

LHP Zach Jackson

Essentially, this deal gave the tribe a top young slugger, a A ball flamethrower with closer potential, a AAAA filler pitcher and a "significant" piece to be determined at the end of the season. LaPorta continued his rapid rise through the system with an excellent '09 contributing a slash line of .299/.388/.530 at AAA and a .254/.308/.442 line in an 181 AB cameo in Cleveland. Kevin Goldstein recently had this to say about LaPorta in his Future Shock Series on the Indians:

"Reviews on LaPorta's bat aren't what they used to be, but they're still good enough to project as an above-average everyday player at first base or left field, and that means a middle-of-the-order run producer."

That still sounds good to me. Anyways, we'll just skip Zach Jackson and head onwards to Rob Bryson. Mr. Bryson, heralded as a potential closer at the time of the deal, hurt his arm and was on the rehab trail most of '09. However, he managed to pitch a little at the end of the season and appears to be making encouraging progress. He's another quality arm with potential that lends this system its' impressive depth. Finally, the player to be named later was as everybody knows Michael Brantley (thankfully not Taylor Green as the Hardball Times article supposed). Although Brantley's numbers on the surface appear uninspiring at AAA (.267/.350/.361 with 46 steals), he was a victim of bad luck (.288 BABIP) and was very young for his level (he turned 22 midseason). Brantley could probably use some more seasoning at AAA, but I believe that he could be a high-OBP speedster that sets the table for the Indians' impending middle-of-the-order quartet (admit it: Sizemore, Santana, Choo, LaPorta, 3-6 is damn exciting). Here's a recent ranking from Project Prospect that had Brantley as the fifth best CF prospect in baseball. Overall, this was a solid trade that infused high-quality talent into the system.

Grade: B

Trade (July 27, 2008):

LA Dodgers Acquire:

3B Casey Blake

Cleveland Acquires:

C Carlos Santana

RHP Jon Meloan

This trade might be one of Shapiro's gems. Shapiro leveraged Blake's high trade value (.830 OPS at the time of the trade) and got a pair of excellent prospects. Meloan, at the time a reliever converted to a starter, looked to still have back of the bullpen potential and Carlos Santana was having a breakout year for the Dodgers' A+ team. Although Meloan fell out of favor with the organization, was subsequently traded and bounced around a couple organizations in '09, Santana is one of the top 10 prospects in baseball. Mr. Goldstein at BP put it this way:

"All of the tools and skills are there for Santana to be a perennial All-Star."

With that I give this trade a Grade A+.

I'll check in sometime soon to review the 2009 trades, but for now I need to survive this December cold and survive a week of finals. Thanks for stopping by!

Your pal,

Alex Trebek

The 2012 Playoffs-The World Series

The 2012 ALDS can be found here.

The 2012 ALCS can be found here.

The Indians rolled into Citizens Bank Park to face the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2012 World Series. Earlier in the year the National League had won their first All-Star game that "counted" for home field advantage in the World Series. The Indians were just happy to have finally made it to the World Series for the first time in 15 years in search of their first championship since 1948.

The Lineups:

Cleveland

LF- Michael Brantley

CF- Grady Sizemore

C- Carlos Santana

1B- Matt LaPorta

RF- Shin-Soo Choo

DH- Manny Ramirez (R)/ Nick Weglarz (L) [at Cleveland only]

SS- Asdrubal Cabrera

3B- Lonnie Chisenhall

2B- Luis Valbuena (L)/ Jason Donald (R)

Philadelphia:

SS- Jimmy Rollins

RF- Dominic Brown

2B- Chase Utley

1B- Ryan Howard

3B- Adrian Beltre

CF- Shane Victorino

DH- Ben Francisco [at Cleveland only]

LF- Michael Taylor

C- Carlos Ruiz

Game 1:

Hector Rondon faced Cole Hamels in a struggle of aces. Both established a quick tempo against the respective lineups. With the game scoreless in the 4th, Carlos Santana roped a solo home run to give the tribe an early advantage. Both aces battled through the middle innings keeping the score constant at 1-0 going into the 8th. In the top of the 8th JA Happ relieved Hamels after the starter walked Matt LaPorta to start the inning and pinch hitter Manny Ramirez doubled putting runners at 2nd and 3rd. Asdrubal Cabrera nailed Happ's first offering into the stands to give the tribe a 4-0 advantage that they would not yield.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E

CLE 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 = 4 8 1

PHI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 = 1 7 1

Notables:

CLE Asdrubal Cabrera 1-4 3-run HR

PHI Ben Francisco 2-4 2 2B, RBI

Game 2: (CLE 1-0)

Carlos Carrasco faced the man he was traded for, Cliff Lee. The Indians got to Lee early and often. Matt LaPorta cracked a grand slam in the 1st and Lonnie Chisenhall added a solo homer in the 2nd to give the Indians a quick 5-0 advantage. Lee was done after 4 after he gave up a pair of RBI doubles to Matt LaPorta and Shin Soo Choo to stretch the Indians' lead to 7-1. Carrasco was erratic at times and surrendered 5 walks, but he struggled through 6 innings giving up only 2 runs. The Indians cruised to a 10-4 victory.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E

CLE 4 1 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 = 10 15 0

PHI 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 = 4 7 1

Notables:

Matt LaPorta 2-3, HR, 2B, 5 RBI, 2BB

Michael Taylor 2-4 2RBI

Game 3: (CLE 2-0)

A pair of young guns faced off in Game 3 at Progressive Field with lefty TJ House facing righty Kyle Drabek. The Indians jumped out to an early lead with Brantley lining the first pitch he saw into the gap to start the first and Grady Sizemore depositing a 2-1 fastball into the visitors dugout to give the tribe a 2-0 lead. Ryan Howard jacked a TJ House offering into "Pronkville" to tie the game at 2 in the fourth. The teams traded jabs and game stood tied 4-4 heading into the seventh. After a one out walk to Jimmy Rollins, Manny Acta called on Nick Hagadone to hold the lead in the 7th. Rollins swiped second on Hagadone's first pitch and the flame-throwing lefty fell behind Brown 3-1. Brown cracked the next pitch into the left field corner and Rollins scored. Brown got gunned down trying to stretch the double into a triple. 5-4 Philadelphia mid 7th. In relief of Drabek, Joe Blanton hung a breaking pitch that Matt LaPorta drilled off the left center wall. JA Happ did not do much better yielding consecutive singles to Shin-Soo Choo and pinch hitter Manny Ramirez. With runners on the corners and the game tied Charlie Manuel, who'd survived his 3rd heart attack in August, called on closer Ryan Madson to preserve the tie. He failed and Asdrubal Cabrera hit a sac fly to score Choo.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E

PHI 0 0 0 2 0 2 1 0 0 = 5 7 0

CLE 2 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 = 6 9 1

Notables:

CLE: Grady Sizemore 1-4 3RBI

PHI: Ryan Howard 2-4 2HR, 2RBI

Game 4: (CLE 3-0)

One game. One game. Those are the words that resonated through the brains of Cleveland Indians fans. The Indians now had four shots at the championship, but after a promising start to the game things turned sour for the Erie Warriors. Justin Masterson retired the Phillies on 8 pitches in the top of the 1st. Carlos Santana lined a single that scored Michael Brantley in the bottom of the first, but rounding 1st base Santana's left knee buckled and he collapsed to the ground in obvious pain. Lou Marson replaced Santana, but the oxygen was sucked out of Progressive Field and the Indians fell 5-1.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E

PHI 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 = 5 12 0

CLE 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 = 1 6 1

Notables:

CLE Justin Masterson 6.0 IP 8H, 4ER, BB, 4K's

PHI Cole Hamels CG, 6H, ER, 10K's

Game 5 (CLE 3-1)

In their last chance to bring home a championship on their home field, the Indians received the devastating news that Carlos Santana would be out for Game 5 and likely the rest of the series. The heart of the Indians who'd hit .317 with 28 HR and 113 RBI watched from the dugout as Chase Utley racked up 6RBI and Cliff Lee tossed a gem in an easy 9-2 Phillies victory. Manny Acta, irate at a bang-bang call at first, was ejected in the 8th and the Indians looked listless and soulless throughout.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E

PHI 3 0 2 3 0 0 1 0 0 = 9 16 1

CLE 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 = 2 7 0

Notables:

Hector Rondon 3IP+ 10H, 7ER, BB, 2K's

Chase Utley 4-5 3 2B, 6RBI

Game 6 (CLE 3-2)

A shocked and dejected Indians team boarded the team plane and headed to Philadelphia. The momentum had shifted to the Phillies and the Indians were left to regroup and wonder if Cleveland was forever doomed to failure. The team looked hopelessly splintered and step-up man Zach Putnam did not make the flight to Philadelphia after he got in a bar fight with a Phillies fan after Game 5.

Grady Sizemore stood up in the locker room before the game and simply stated: "It's time to nut up or shut up." It was as if the haze of the previous few miserable days had been lifted and the team took the field behind Carlos Carrasco. After the Indians were retired in the top of the 1st without scoring, a focused Carrasco struck out the side of Phillies utilizing his devastating changeup. Drabek and Carrasco dueled through the next 4 innings and the game remained scoreless. Carrasco appeared calm and composed on the mound working off of an excellent fastball, curveball, changeup combination. Carrasco singled to start the top of the 6th and came around to score on a Grady Sizemore double to give the tribe a 1-0 advantage. Carrasco cruised through the bottom of the sixth, but after the tribe came up empty in the top of the 7th Ryan Howard blasted a towering solo homer to tie the game. Sensing trouble Manny Acta sprinted out to the mound and got Alex White up in the bullpen. Carrasco reassured Acta and knucked down to retire the next three guys in a row. The score was tied at 1 after 7 innings. Nobody scored in the 8th. To start the 9th Matt LaPorta doubled off reliever JA Happ, but the left handed reliever got Choo and Chisenhall to ground out before he surrendered a walk to Jason Donald. Instead of Lou Marson, Carlos Santana limped out to the plate. Ryan Madson relieved Happ. Madson attacked him, getting ahead 1-2 before Santana watched two balls outside to make the count full. Madson jammed Santana inside on the next pitch, who blooped it into right center field over the head of Chase Utley for a single. Pinch runner Luis Valbuena raced around third and beat the throw home, 2-1 Indians. Manny Acta called to the pen for the bottom of the 9th and summoned All-Star Chris Perez. The closer got Jimmy Rollins to ground out to start the inning and Dominic Brown went down on strikes, but Chase Utley singled to give the Phillies a glimmer of home. Ryan Howard took a rip at Perez's first pitch and sent a high towering fly ball about 95 feet into Asdrubal Cabrera's outstretched glove. THE INDIANS WIN IT, OH MY GOD, THE INDIANS WIN IT!

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E

CLE 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 = 2 7 0

PHI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 = 1 5 1

Notables:

Carlos Carrasco 8.0IP, 4H, ER, 2BB, 11K's

Ryan Howard 1-4 HR, RBI

World Series MVP: Carlos Carrasco 2-0 14.0IP, 9H, 3ER, 7BB, 18K's

Rosterin' and Prospectin': A Look at the Tribe's 40 man and Farm System

Ka-Ching, I'm on Thanksgiving Break. A whole week of reading, relaxing and seeing some old friends back home. Sadly the first big piece of news to hit is that Omar Vizquel is close to signing with the White Sox. I wish Omar the best, but couldn't he have picked another franchise? I believe I'm in the majority when I say that the White Sox are my least favorite AL Central franchise. Why couldn't Omar have come to help tutor Asdrubal and Luis in their middle infield adventures? Sandy came back to help Carlos and Lou.....

Anyways, let's start with the big news of the week: the 40 man roster. Tony did his normal superb job in reviewing the moves the tribe made with their roster. Nobody was removed, although if I was Chris Gimenez, Wyatt Toregas or Anthony Reyes, I wouldn't get too comfortable. I'm glad the Indians didn't roster any of the numerous back-end starters/middle relievers that aren't necessarily major league ready. Guys like Yohan Pino, Chuck Lofgren, Josh Tomlin, Steven Wright and Ryan Edell are nice depth options, but they don't warrant a roster spot if they're blocking guys with more potential and upside.

While fact that Jordan Brown, Nick Weglarz, Jason Donald and Jeanmar Gomez were rostered comes as no surprise, the other three new members of the 40 man are questionable. Let's start with Kelvin de la Cruz. Baseball America ranked de la Cruz as the Indians' seventh best prospect coming into 2009 noting:

"De la Cruz now sits at 89-92 mph and touches 93-94 with his four-seam fastball. He's still growing and getting stronger, so he could add more velocity. His best pitch is his 75-77 mph curveball, which has two-plane depth and neutralizes lefties and righties. He also mixes in a two-seam fastball with good sink and a changeup that shows promise.... De la Cruz again will be one of the high Class A Carolina League's youngest pitchers in 2009. How quickly he can make the necessary mechanical adjustments will dictate the speed of his ascent."

Although de la Cruz battled injuries and could only make 5 starts in '09, his talent is undeniable. His option clock is ticking and the Indians are betting he's big league ready by 2012 or at the very latest the beginning of '13, but I believe that's a risk they have to take considering this guy's talent.

The Indians also decided to roster young shortstop Carlos Rivero. Rivero spent his 2009 season in Akron and I remember going to an Aeros game at the end of June and saw that his average was hovering right around the Mendoza Line. However, Rivero flashed his talent in the second half of the season (.280 BA, .797 OPS) and at the AFL (.318 BA, .859 OPS in 22G). With another hat tip to Tony for those stats, let's turn to what BA had to say about him in '09 handbook:

"Rivero has plus power that's evident in batting practice, though that power has yet to manifest itself in games with much frequency. As his frame continues to fill out, his power should continue to grow. He has a sound swing that generates plenty of bat speed, and he is a good athlete. Defensively, he offers soft hands and a strong arm. While Rivero has the tools, the gap between his potential and his present ability is still significant. He struggles to recognize breaking pitches, and he needs to get his hands into a better load position. He has the arm for shortstop, but 16 of his 24 errors last season came on throws. He's a below average runner with below-average lateral range, and scouts from other club officials believe he could become another Jhonny Peralta."

The problem with Rivero, as noted in BA's piece, is that although he's got the raw tools..... he's still a long way from putting everything together. Rivero turns 22 next May and he'll likely need at least another year at AA and probably another year at AAA. With his option clock ticking, this puts the tribe in a hard place if he continues his slow development. Still it's hard to expose talent like this.....

Finally, we come to Wes Hodges. Hodges was a 2nd round pick out of Georgia Tech in '06 and posted good lines of .288/.367/.473 in '07 at Kinston and .290/.354/.466 in '08 at Akron. However, the knock on Hodges is his defense and as BA noted:

"[Hodges] committed 28 errors in 125 games at third base with Akron, then eight more in 22 AFL games."

Although Hodges represents a right handed bat option for the predominantly left handed Indians lineup, his atrocious fielding proceeds him. When you're projected starting rotation is Jake Westbrook, Justin Masterson, Aaron Laffey, David Huff and Fausto Carmona/Carlos Carrasco, all of whom are very young or sinkerballers, you want a good defensive 3B. On top of that, the two guys ahead of Hodges, Peralta and Marte, are both right handers themselves. Hodges injury concerns and his .265/.307/.383 line in 359 PA at AAA last year as a 25 year old makes we wish the tribe had protected Matt McBride instead.

I know Matt McBride had a pedestrian slash line of .247/.301/.427 in 406 PA at Akron this year after his monster start at Kinston (.405/.453/.667 in 139 PA), but he's rebounded at the AFL and has put up an unbelievable line of .378/.511/.649 line there in 22 games. He has versatility and can catch (although Santana appears to have that covered), play third and the corner outfield. Here's what John Sickels had to say about him after seeing him at the AFL.

"I like McBride quite a bit as a sleeper. He won’t be a gold glove catcher but he’s not terrible, and his bat has a lot of potential if he can show some improved plate discipline at higher levels."

McBride just seems too valuable to expose especially considering Hodges' faults.

Anyways onwards and upwards to Kevin Goldstein's top 11 Indians prospects (with 4 bonus prospects). If you don't have a Baseball Prospectus subscription, I strongly recommended it. You won't get better in-depth baseball commentary anywhere else.

Five-Star Prospects
1. Carlos Santana, C
Four-Star Prospects
2. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B
3. Alex White, RHP
4. Jason Knapp, RHP
5. Nick Hagadone, LHP
Three-Star Prospects
6. Hector Rondon, RHP
7. Lou Marson, C
8. Jason Kipnis, OF/2B
9. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
10. Michael Brantley, OF
11. Zach Putnam, RHP

Four More:

12. Jess Todd, RHP

13. Nick Weglarz, OF/1B

14. TJ House, LHP

15. Jason Donald, SS

Anyways, Goldstein agrees with about everybody else in the prospect watching community that Carlos Santana is an elite prospect. Project Prospect ranked him as the SECOND best position prospect in baseball at the end of the MiLB season. Goldstein says this about the gem of the Casey Blake trade:

"Santana's bat is so special that if he was a first-base prospect, he'd still be elite. His approach is big league-ready, as he never swings at a bad pitch. As one scout put it, "When he does finally swing, special things tend to happen." His power is plus to plus-plus to all fields, and for a player with his strength, he maintains an outstanding contact rate. He's a solid defender with above-average arm strength."

Sounds pretty damn good to me. He looks a little like Victor Marintez, v.2, bigger, faster, stronger.... though I hope I didn't just jinx him. I can't wait to see him in the big leagues midseason (around the Super Two cutoff).

Goldstein was also high on Chisenhall and admitted in his chat that he almost placed him in the "Five Star Prospect" category. His projection of Chisenhall (membership required) states:

"If he continues to develop, look for Chisenhall to be a .300-hitting third baseman with 20-25 home runs annually"

Sounds good to me.

However, after Santana and Chisenhall, Goldstein's list is surprising. Goldstein favors high upside guys over surer things closer to the big leagues. There's no doubt that Alex White, Jason Knapp and Nick Hagadone are all supremely talented, but I think its a stretch that they're all ranked above Hector Rondon. The Venezuelan righty just completed a marvelous season and is just a stone's throw away from the big leagues going into his age 22 season (2009: Rondon at AA-2.51 FIP, 4.56 K/BB in 15G, at AAA-3.56 FIP, 4.92 K/BB in 13G). Goldstein admitted Rondon was close to a four star prospect in the comment section and stated in his assessment: "He projects as a good third starter with some room for growth." I guess I might be biased by my Indians loyalty, but I think Rondon has top-of-the-rotation potential (and Project Prospect agrees-if you check out the chat replay)

Goldstein isn't a Weglarz fan and left Alexander Perez and Jeanmar Gomez completely off the list. However, the exclusion of Perez and Gomez should be viewed more as a compliment to the system's incredible depth than anything else.

Anywho, I trust most you guys have already seen Manny Acta's interview with Les Levine. I don't know about you guys, but Acta's radiant personality is a breath of fresh air after Eric Wedge and Charlie Manuel. I can't wait to see this guy in action...

Take it easy,

Alex Trebek

A Team of Rivals

At the moment I'm consumed by 4 papers that are all due Friday. Hell of a way to spend the week before thanksgiving break... especially since I checked out around Halloween. I've got papers on the movie Sonnenallee (to be written in German), the interaction between the Mongol Rulers of China and Persia respectively in the 13th century (actually two relatively short papers summarizing two different sources) and finally a good old 6 pager for Early Modern Europe about the changing conception of property during the 17th century. If you have any ideas send them to me by Friday. :)

Anyways... enough grumbling.... time to talk a little baseball. I've already commended the Indians for their hire of Manny Acta. Acta and the Indians have complied what appears to be a diverse group of articulate, well-respected individuals to staff the coaching spots around the diamond.

Here's how it stands:
Manager: Manny Acta
Bench Coach: Tim Tolman (good to see Acta get "one of his guys" on his staff)
Pitching Coach: Tim Belcher (not sure about this hire, but I trust Acta's judgment)
Hitting Coach: ?
Bullpen Coach: Scott Radinsky (he should have replaced Chuck Hernandez here around the end of April)
3rd Base Coach: Steve Smith (good write up on him here: http://www.blogcatalog.com/blog/the-tribe-daily)
1st Base Coach: Sandy Alomar (so well liked that the trolls on cleveland.com had positive things to say)

I'll have more analysis at the end of the week. With Kevin Goldstein's top 11 Indians prospects coming out soon and the 40 man roster deadline... we should have a nice weekend of Indians baseball news on our hands.

Keep it classy,
Alex Trebek