It's still snowing out there.... We have something like 25 inches on the ground here in central Ohio. I thought I'd finish my preliminary preview of baseball in '10 before my evening seminar. Once again, I apologize for the strange formating issues.... and remember this post is just for fun since despite all the research in the world you can't easily predict the random nature of a 162 game baseball season. Enjoy!
NL East W L
(1) Philadelphia Phillies 92 70
(4) Atlanta Braves 89 73
Florida Marlins 82 80
New York Mets 81 81
Washington Nationals 66 96
The NL East is still a strong division and every team save the Nationals has a legitimate shot at the playoffs. The Phillies questionably swapped out Lee for Halladay, but still have a damn imposing rotation of Halladay, Hamels(I expect him to return to his ’08 form), Blanton, Happ and Moyer. There offense is similarly stacked with the likes of Howard, Utley, Werth, Rollins and Victorino. Who knows what to expect from their bullpen with an erratic Brad Lidge penciled in as closer, but bullpens are so volatile they’re not even worth projecting. It’s hard to pick against the Phillies here. The Braves almost made the playoffs last year and once again sport a fine looking roster in ’10. Despite the subtraction of Javier Vazquez, they still have a superb rotation headlined by a potent trio of Hudson-Hansen-Jurrjens and their offense should be better for the subtraction of Garrett Anderson’s 496 ABs and Jason Heyward’s impending arrival. The Marlins locked up ace Josh Johnson over the winter to give them a centerpiece on the pitching-side to complement their centerpiece on the hitting side Hanley Ramirez. Ricky Nolasco suffered horrible luck last year (5.08 ERA, 3.28 xFIP) and I view him as a co-ace to Johnson. The Marlins have plenty of young pitching depth to slot behind Johnson and Nolasco and with hitters like Uggla, Coghlan, Cantu and hopefully Maybin the Marlins could easily make some more noise this year in the East. The Mets have a Royal-esque offseason and triggered a hilarious post on fangraphs entitled “the contest” between Drayton Moore and Omar Minaya. Although they overspent for Bay, the Mets were so unhealthy last year that I believe they are getting underestimated. They’re a .500 team or maybe a little better, but I still think they’re fourth in the division. The future doesn’t look quite so grim for the Nationals with Strasburg in the minors. They could have a decent team in 2011 with guys like Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Drew Storen and Ryan Zimmerman leading a talented young core. 2010 you ask? Well, don’t hold your breath.
NL Central W L
(2) St. Louis Cardinals 90 72
Cincinnati Reds 86 76
Milwaukee Brewers 81 81
Chicago Cubs 78 84
Pittsburgh Pirates 67 95
Houston Astros 63 99
The Cardinals are the strongest team here on paper. The quartet of Carpenter, Wainwright, Pujols and Holliday is not one you want to mess with. They depleted their farm system and much of their young talent with their trades for Holliday and DeRosa last year, but it was worth it and they’re a strong team. Look for budding star Colby Rasmus to breakout this year and make it a powerful quintet of all-stars heading St. Louis’ roster. The Reds are a team I like a lot. They probably still are a year away, but they have a high upside, if volatile, rotation headed by Volquez, Cueto and Bailey that has already showed flashes of brilliance. Watch out for their 2012 rotation which could be dominating with Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, first round pick Mike Leake and stud Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman. Votto is an underappreciated star and their offense should be fine with guys like Bruce and Rolen. The Brewers improved their downright awful pitching staff with solid cogs Randy Wolf and Doug Davis to slot behind Yovani Gallardo. However, it’s still an underwhelming staff. At least the offense will be fun to watch with the Prince and Ryan “the Hebrew Hammer” Braun holding down the heart of the lineup. They look like a .500 team to me. I’m not particularly high on the Cubs. The Cubbies are handicapped by bad contracts and an aging roster and I’m not a fan of their GM Jim Hendry either. The Pirates are showing progress and have a young core in the majors and high minors that could turn the ship around in Pittsburgh. I’m a big Andrew McCutchen fan. Pirates GM Neil Huntington is doing his best in a tough situation. My Astros prediction may be a little harsh, but I foresee a collapse in Houston. They have an old, listless roster weighed down by bad contracts. Houston needs to focus inwards and build up their consistently lousy farm system. If not, Houston could suffer a lost decade…. and signing lousy, injury prone relievers to 3 year, 15 million dollar contracts doesn’t help Houston’s cause *cough, Brandon Lyon, cough*.
NL West W L
(3) Arizona D-Backs 89 73
Colorado Rockies 86 76
Los Angeles Dodgers 83 79
San Francisco Giants 75 87
San Diego Padres 68 94
My predictions here are fairly bold. People fall into the comfortable habit of predicting divisions like they finished the year beforehand. Although Arizona finished dead last with only 70 wins in ’09, they’ve made some moves this offseason and have an impressive core. Let’s start with the rotation. If Brandon Webb comes back healthy, a Haren-Webb-Edwin Jackson trio looks very strong. I believe that Ian Kennedy will benefit greatly from this change of scenery. He’ls still only 25, posted fine numbers in AAA last year (9.93 K/9, 3.57 K/BB, 1.92 FIP) and should make a fine #4 starter. On the offense end, the D-Backs have budding superstars Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton, along with a talented group of Stephen Drew, Miguel Montero, Connor Jackson and Chris Young. Imagine if that latter group can bring it together. As a result, I’m bullish on Arizona. The Rockies were a great story in ’09, sprinting into the wild card after an atrocious start. I almost picked them in the West because their talented roster spearheaded by Tulowitzki, Helton, Jimenez and Flower could still easily take it. The Dodgers had a lackluster offseason and strangely decided against offering arbitration to Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson. It’s difficult to predict their gifted, but volatile pitching duo of Clayton Kershaw (ugly 4.79 BB/9, but only 119H in 171 IP) and Chad Billingsley (3.14 ERA in first 120.1IP in '10, 5.45 ERA in last 79.1IP). They still have a nice offense spearheaded by an excellent outfield of Kemp, Ethier and Ramirez. The Giants just have such a lousy offense that it’s hard to put them any higher than this. Now the trio of Lincecum/Cain/Sandoval is imposing, but in general I think the Giants are overhyped due to their nice 88 win campaign last year. The Padres are in the capable hands of former Red Sox assistant GM Jed Hoyer. They have some nice guys coming through their system starting with #3 overall pick last year Donovan Tate. However, the team topside just isn’t very good, although I like youngster Matt Latos and think Adrian Gonzalez and Health Bell could make superb trade bait.
Playoffs:
ALDS
(1) New York over (3) Minnesota in 3 games
(2) Texas over (4) Boston in 4 games
NLDS
(3) Arizona over (1) Philadelphia in 5 games
(4) Atlanta over (2) St. Louis in 4 games
ALCS
(2) Texas over (1) New York in 6 games
NLCS
(4) Atlanta over (3) Arizona in 5 games
World Series
Texas over Atlanta in 7 games
Spring Training in a week!
Alex Trebek
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