Thoughts about Fausto

Unfortunately, I've been too busy with school work to write much about the tribe lately. However, I've got a little free time and I think I'll sneak in a quick one here about our old friend Fausto. With that ladies and gentlemen, buckle your seat belts....

Before we look at Fausto's stellar Spring Training, let's look at the stats:

2007: 19-8, 3.06 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 3.88 xFIP, 5.73 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9, 64.3 GB%, .281 BABIP in 215 IP

2008: 8-7, 5.44 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 5.13 xFIP, 4.33 K/9, 5.22 BB/9, 0.52 HR/9, 63.5 GB%, .297 BABIP in 120.2 IP

2009: 5-12, 6.32 ERA, 5.36 FIP, 4.98 xFIP, 5.67 K/9, 5.03 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 55.2 GB%, .330 BABIP in 125.1 IP

Although Carmona posted an impressive 2007 by all of the statistics above, he looked to have outdone himself a bit. His FIP and xFIP (more accurate representations of ERA) are 0.82 and 0.86 runs respectively above his actual ERA. They were still impressive for a 23 year old nonetheless. His BABIP also looks like it was a little flukey low. His K rates were unspectacular, but he kept his BB rates low. However his HR/9 (0.67) and GB% (64.3) (crucial stats for a sinkerballer) were excellent. For comparison, Cliff Lee (0.66), CC Sabathia (0.70) and Justin Verlander (0.75) had similar HR/9 rates in '09 and only Joel Pinero (60.5%) really came close to Fausto's '07 GB%.

Expectations were high for Fausto heading into '08, but he underperformed expectations badly. I, and many others, blamed it on the Verducci Effect, which states that pitchers are injury prone and underperform the year after a 30 inning or more workload increase. Between AAA and Cleveland in '06 Fausto only complied 102.1 IP total innings. He pitched 112.2 more innings in '07 and more than double his '06 total. Predictably, Fausto got injured and his BB rate skyrocketed. However, his HR/9 and GB% rates stayed relatively stable. There was still much reason for hope.

Then the 2009 season happened. Fausto's BB rate remained unsustainably high, his HR/9 rate more than doubled and his GB rate dipped (although it was still the fourth best in baseball for pitchers with more than 120 IP). After his two-month demotion to the minors Fausto was somewhat better, but still nothing like his '07 self. Despite the fact that he's still only 26, everybody (myself included) had pretty much given up on him.

As I looked at the young talent in this organization this offseason and tried to determine Cleveland's future roster, something was missing. The lineup is already imposing and would only get better with reinforcements like Carlos Santana, Lonnie Chisenhall and Nick Weglarz on the way. Pitching-wise the Indians might have the best minor league depth in baseball, but I had trouble finding a guy with definite Top of the Rotation potential. Carrasco and Rondon are both near the majors, but probably middle of the rotation types. Jason Knapp is incredibly talented, but very young (19) and injury prone. Nick Hagadone has also TOR potential, but many talent evaluators believe he'll be relegated to the pen due to his injury risk. Alex White, the 15th overall pick in last year's draft, likewise has a lot of potential, but still hasn't thrown a professional inning yet. The organization seemed to be overflowing with talent, but lacked that crucial guy with definite TOR potential.

However, Fausto has seemingly reported to Spring Training a changed, reinvigorated man. He's cut some weight and has put up the following line this spring:

3-0, 0.45 ERA, 8H, 0HR, 2 BB, 9 K's in 20 IP

Granted, these are still only Spring Training stats, but Buster Olney, Manny Acta and Lou Piniella have all sung Fausto's praises. Many scouts are impressed. Despite the weakness of the AL Central this year, a possible Fausto resurgence would be much more helpful in '11 and beyond. The 2010 ballclub is just too flawed. The pitching situation outside of Fausto is still not pretty (and Fausto isn't a sure thing himself). Westbrook still hasn't pitched in a major league game since May 2008. Masterson flashes brilliance, but has been inconsistent and still has a lot of trouble getting lefties out. Talbot, Huff and Laffey are probably no better than #4/5 starters. Carrasco and Rondon still need seasoning in the minors and the Wood-less bullpen could be a major work in progress as demonstrated from Monday night's game.

However, with the outstanding talent present in the Indians organization.... A Fausto resurgence (he has options through 2014) could provide the crucial cornerstone to postseason glory in 2011 and beyond. The offense looks strong going forward and our pitching depth should fill up the bullpen and middle/back of the rotation with plenty of quality options. However, a focused, dominant Fausto could tip the balance and take the Indians from contenders to champions in a couple years.

I hope I didn't just jinx us....

Alex Trebek

An Optimistic Rant about the Indians

Ok, I'm shooting this one from the hip. I've been stuck in the library all week pumping out my various midterm papers. I'm a little on edge, but I'm almost done and I'm going to channel this energy against something that's really getting on my nerves. LAZY NATIONAL AND LOCAL JOURNALISM REGARDING THE INDIANS.

I took a brief break from work this afternoon to read Keith Law's chat from last Thursday. Although I usually enjoy Keith Law and his normal sarcastic, snarky remarks about the Indians don't usually bother me (he is from Massachusetts after all), his complete and total disregard for the Indians today pissed me off and primed me for rant mode.

Here are his comments:

Steve (Cleveland)

It seems like the statistical projections have the Indians doing a lot better (CHONE has them at 81 wins) than the scouts and local media think. Pitching is obviously tough to project, but can this team be that good?

Klaw

(12:33 PM)

No.

Steve (Cleveland)

Can I get more than one word on the Indians?

Klaw

(12:47 PM)

They're not very good. That's four!

Ok, very funny Klaw...

In my quest for a little baseball news outside of the reliable bloggers (Let's Go Tribe, Tribe Daily, DiaTribe and Indians Prospect Insider), I went to Sports Illustrated's website. Tim Marchman, who ever the hell that is, pegged Mark Shapiro as the #22 "best" GM in baseball.

Marchman said this: "[Shapiro] has to be the most overrated executive of the last few years."

Thank you Mr. Marchman for your penetrating insight. Sure Shapiro hasn't drafted well (although the last two drafts are very promising) and he made some questionable free agent signings/extensions like David Dellucci and Jason Michaels, but this small-market team came very close to a championship in '07. Furthermore a deadly combination of Wedge, historically bad bullpens and bad luck caused Cleveland to badly underperform their Expected Pythagorean Win-Loss Record over the past couple of years. Give Shapiro $150 million and see what he could do. Finally my quest for Indians baseball information led me to my copy of Baseball Prospectus and I re-read the entry on the Indians. Of course I ran into the same tired pessimism:

"Talents such as Carlos Santana and [Matt] LaPorta might provide the lineup anchors for the next great crop of Tribesmen, but even in the decisively mediocre AL Central, it figures to be a slow climb back."

Ok, I'm guessing that the national media looks at these two facts and quickly comes the conclusion that the Indians are a lost cause.

Indians W-L

2007- 96-66 Tied for best in baseball

2008- 81-81 15th best in baseball

2009- 65-97 Tied for 4th worst in baseball

Moreover, the Indians have traded away two CY Young Winners over the past two years (CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee), all-star Victor Martinez and a bunch of quality, if replaceable, big leaguers like Casey Blake, Ryan Garko, Rafael Betancourt and Ben Francisco.

Thus, the majority of sports writers (from national to Sheldon Ocker) have concluded the Indians are done and finished. They snidely console us that "at least Cleveland still has LeBron."

Here are five reasons for Indians optimism if one digs a little deeper:

#1 Grady Sizemore- Many in the media say the Indians should, or will soon, trade Grady, but I retort the simple question: "Why?" Sizemore, still only 27, is signed for two more years at a bargain basement price of 13.1 million with a dirt cheap 8.5 million dollar option for 2012. Here are his WARs from '06-'08: 7.5, 5.9, 6.4. Granted he had a down year last year due to injuries, but he still put up a 111 OPS+. PECOTA predicts he'll put up the second highest WAR in the AL in '10 only behind Joe Mauer. The Indians could always trade Sizemore in 2012 if they actually are entering a lost decade. However, the Indians should be in position to compete in '11 so there's no reason to dump one of the game's premier players... at least not yet.

#2 The Lineup- Expanding up Sizemore.... look at the Indians' powerful, probable lineup:

1) SS Asdrubal Cabrera- He posted a .799 OPS in his year 23 season. For comparison's sake, Derek Jeter posted a .775 OPS in his year 23 season. Jeter subsequently put up the following OPS numbers the next four years: .864, .989, .896, .858. While Cabrera's likely not the next Jeter, he compares favorably to him.

2) CF Sizemore-See above.

3) RF Shin-Soo Choo-2008 wOBA-.402 OPS-.946 and 2009 wOBA-.389 OPS-.883 (Justin Upton 2009 wOBA-.388, OPS-.899)

4) DH Travis Hafner- Hafner will never again be the prolific slugger who put up OPSs of .993, 1.003 and 1.098 from '04-'06. Nonetheless, he rebounded and put up average-ish production for a DH in '09 (.825 OPS). Hopefully another year away from his shoulder surgery Hafner will be able to improve a bit upon that production, but if he doesn't at least Branyan provides nice insurance.

5) 3B Jhonny Peralta- Under Eric Wedge's watchful eye Peralta never came close to duplicating his outstanding age 23 season from '05 (.292/.366/.520). He completely tanked in '09 putting up a dismal .254/.316/.375 line. I think it's fairly safe to say that Peralta will bounce back to his solid '07-'08 levels (.771, .802 respective OPSs) with a new, less abrasive manager and an offseason to adjust to 3B.

6) 1B Russell Branyan- If for no other reason, signing Branyan for a bargain basement price of $2 million is a good deal for managing Brantley's service time. It never hurts to add a guy who whacked 31 homers in only 431 '09 ABs either.

7) LF Matt LaPorta- LaPorta is still unproven at the major league level. However, he ranked as BA's #27 prospect before 2009 and Kevin Goldstein gave him 5 stars then saying: "LaPorta projects as a classic high OBP/high slugging middle of the order presence."

8) 2B Luis Valbuena- Valbuena needs to polish his game especially defensively, but he's only 24 and had a higher ISO (isolated power=difference between BA and SLG) than Nick Markakis, Vladimir Guerrero and Todd Helton.

9) C Lou Marson- One of the many goodies acquired for Cliff Lee, he should be a decent high OBP, low slugging placeholder until Carlos Santana arrives midseason.

Pretty potent lineup.

#3- The Indians have a consensus top 5 farm system.

The Indians have Carlos Santana a dynamic catching prospect who looks a lot like a more athletic Victor Martinez, but with a little more power potential. Also looking to help in '10 is Michael Brantley who should infuse the lineup with a young, athletic high-OBP speedster. Lonnie Chisenhall may not be ready in '10, but Kevin Goldstein forsees a ".300 hitting third baseman with 20-25 home runs annually" in the future.

The Indians have some nice young pitching pieces already in the big leagues. Guys like Justin Masterson, Chris Perez, David Huff, Aaron Laffey, Tony Sipp and hopefully even Fausto Carmona constitute some decent building blocks. Granted none of those guys really jumps off the computer screen at you, but still the pitching staff topside isn't utterly devoid of talent.

As for the Indians minors pitching depth John Sickels said this: "The [Indians minor league] pitching.... wow, there is a ton of depth." The Indians have guys like Hector Rondon, Carlos Carrasco, Jess Todd, Zach Putnam, Josh Judy and Jeanmar Gomez who could easily help topside in '10. Futhermore intriguing arms like Alex White, Nick Hagadone, Jason Knapp, Kelvin de la Cruz, TJ House and Alexander Perez litter the lower levels of the Indians system. Some of these guys certainly will bust, but there is strength in numbers and the Indians have possibly unmatched pitching depth in the minors. The real question is this: will any of these guys become top of the rotation studs?

#4- Thankfully, the AL Central Sucks. Take a look at the PECOTA and CHONE projected standings. I'll do a post soon on the Tribe's AL Central opponents but just look at the projections:

PECOTA:

Minnesota-81-81

Chicago-80-82

Cleveland-79-83

Detroit-79-83

Kansas City-74-88

CHONE:

Minnesota-86-76

Cleveland-82-80

Chicago-81-81

Detroit-74-88

Kansas City-73-89

What a crapshoot. It's essentially a race to see who gets the honor of being swept out of the ALDS by the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays. Hell, despite the doom and gloom the rebuilding Indians look like they could have a legitimate shot of winning the Central in 2010. Well I'm not holding my breath, at least not for 2010, but it's nice to see that the Indians could actually make some noise before the bulk of their minor league talent is ready to help them.

#5- Manny Acta>Eric Wedge. Sure, Manny Acta has a career winning percentage of .385% (158-252), but he's held in high regard around the league. I like his positive energy and statistically- backed decision to drop Sizemore in the order. Hopefully he can shepherd the next wave of young Indians better than Eric Wedge could the last.

In conclusion, the Indians already have a strong lineup built around the impressive young core of Sizemore, Cabrera, Choo, LaPorta and Valbuena. Farm system reinforcements are on the way in the form of Carlos Santana and Michael Brantley this year and Lonnie Chisenhall and Nick Weglarz soon thereafter. Cleveland's current pitching staff, although certainly not barren, currently lacks the depth and impact talent to seriously contend. However, with their outstanding pitching depth coming up through the farm... The Indians should be in good condition to contend as early as 2011.

Long slow climb back? Ha, take that pessimists!

Humbly Yours,

Alex Trebek