Before we look at Fausto's stellar Spring Training, let's look at the stats:
2007: 19-8, 3.06 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 3.88 xFIP, 5.73 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9, 64.3 GB%, .281 BABIP in 215 IP
2008: 8-7, 5.44 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 5.13 xFIP, 4.33 K/9, 5.22 BB/9, 0.52 HR/9, 63.5 GB%, .297 BABIP in 120.2 IP
2009: 5-12, 6.32 ERA, 5.36 FIP, 4.98 xFIP, 5.67 K/9, 5.03 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 55.2 GB%, .330 BABIP in 125.1 IP
Although Carmona posted an impressive 2007 by all of the statistics above, he looked to have outdone himself a bit. His FIP and xFIP (more accurate representations of ERA) are 0.82 and 0.86 runs respectively above his actual ERA. They were still impressive for a 23 year old nonetheless. His BABIP also looks like it was a little flukey low. His K rates were unspectacular, but he kept his BB rates low. However his HR/9 (0.67) and GB% (64.3) (crucial stats for a sinkerballer) were excellent. For comparison, Cliff Lee (0.66), CC Sabathia (0.70) and Justin Verlander (0.75) had similar HR/9 rates in '09 and only Joel Pinero (60.5%) really came close to Fausto's '07 GB%.
Expectations were high for Fausto heading into '08, but he underperformed expectations badly. I, and many others, blamed it on the Verducci Effect, which states that pitchers are injury prone and underperform the year after a 30 inning or more workload increase. Between AAA and Cleveland in '06 Fausto only complied 102.1 IP total innings. He pitched 112.2 more innings in '07 and more than double his '06 total. Predictably, Fausto got injured and his BB rate skyrocketed. However, his HR/9 and GB% rates stayed relatively stable. There was still much reason for hope.
Then the 2009 season happened. Fausto's BB rate remained unsustainably high, his HR/9 rate more than doubled and his GB rate dipped (although it was still the fourth best in baseball for pitchers with more than 120 IP). After his two-month demotion to the minors Fausto was somewhat better, but still nothing like his '07 self. Despite the fact that he's still only 26, everybody (myself included) had pretty much given up on him.
As I looked at the young talent in this organization this offseason and tried to determine Cleveland's future roster, something was missing. The lineup is already imposing and would only get better with reinforcements like Carlos Santana, Lonnie Chisenhall and Nick Weglarz on the way. Pitching-wise the Indians might have the best minor league depth in baseball, but I had trouble finding a guy with definite Top of the Rotation potential. Carrasco and Rondon are both near the majors, but probably middle of the rotation types. Jason Knapp is incredibly talented, but very young (19) and injury prone. Nick Hagadone has also TOR potential, but many talent evaluators believe he'll be relegated to the pen due to his injury risk. Alex White, the 15th overall pick in last year's draft, likewise has a lot of potential, but still hasn't thrown a professional inning yet. The organization seemed to be overflowing with talent, but lacked that crucial guy with definite TOR potential.
However, Fausto has seemingly reported to Spring Training a changed, reinvigorated man. He's cut some weight and has put up the following line this spring:
3-0, 0.45 ERA, 8H, 0HR, 2 BB, 9 K's in 20 IP
Granted, these are still only Spring Training stats, but Buster Olney, Manny Acta and Lou Piniella have all sung Fausto's praises. Many scouts are impressed. Despite the weakness of the AL Central this year, a possible Fausto resurgence would be much more helpful in '11 and beyond. The 2010 ballclub is just too flawed. The pitching situation outside of Fausto is still not pretty (and Fausto isn't a sure thing himself). Westbrook still hasn't pitched in a major league game since May 2008. Masterson flashes brilliance, but has been inconsistent and still has a lot of trouble getting lefties out. Talbot, Huff and Laffey are probably no better than #4/5 starters. Carrasco and Rondon still need seasoning in the minors and the Wood-less bullpen could be a major work in progress as demonstrated from Monday night's game.
However, with the outstanding talent present in the Indians organization.... A Fausto resurgence (he has options through 2014) could provide the crucial cornerstone to postseason glory in 2011 and beyond. The offense looks strong going forward and our pitching depth should fill up the bullpen and middle/back of the rotation with plenty of quality options. However, a focused, dominant Fausto could tip the balance and take the Indians from contenders to champions in a couple years.
I hope I didn't just jinx us....
Alex Trebek
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