I took a brief break from work this afternoon to read Keith Law's chat from last Thursday. Although I usually enjoy Keith Law and his normal sarcastic, snarky remarks about the Indians don't usually bother me (he is from Massachusetts after all), his complete and total disregard for the Indians today pissed me off and primed me for rant mode.
Here are his comments:
Steve (Cleveland)
It seems like the statistical projections have the Indians doing a lot better (CHONE has them at 81 wins) than the scouts and local media think. Pitching is obviously tough to project, but can this team be that good?
Klaw (12:33 PM)
No.
Steve (Cleveland)
Can I get more than one word on the Indians?
Klaw (12:47 PM)
They're not very good. That's four!
Ok, very funny Klaw...
In my quest for a little baseball news outside of the reliable bloggers (Let's Go Tribe, Tribe Daily, DiaTribe and Indians Prospect Insider), I went to Sports Illustrated's website. Tim Marchman, who ever the hell that is, pegged Mark Shapiro as the #22 "best" GM in baseball.
Marchman said this: "[Shapiro] has to be the most overrated executive of the last few years."
Thank you Mr. Marchman for your penetrating insight. Sure Shapiro hasn't drafted well (although the last two drafts are very promising) and he made some questionable free agent signings/extensions like David Dellucci and Jason Michaels, but this small-market team came very close to a championship in '07. Furthermore a deadly combination of Wedge, historically bad bullpens and bad luck caused Cleveland to badly underperform their Expected Pythagorean Win-Loss Record over the past couple of years. Give Shapiro $150 million and see what he could do. Finally my quest for Indians baseball information led me to my copy of Baseball Prospectus and I re-read the entry on the Indians. Of course I ran into the same tired pessimism:
"Talents such as Carlos Santana and [Matt] LaPorta might provide the lineup anchors for the next great crop of Tribesmen, but even in the decisively mediocre AL Central, it figures to be a slow climb back."
Ok, I'm guessing that the national media looks at these two facts and quickly comes the conclusion that the Indians are a lost cause.
Indians W-L
2007- 96-66 Tied for best in baseball
2008- 81-81 15th best in baseball
2009- 65-97 Tied for 4th worst in baseball
Moreover, the Indians have traded away two CY Young Winners over the past two years (CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee), all-star Victor Martinez and a bunch of quality, if replaceable, big leaguers like Casey Blake, Ryan Garko, Rafael Betancourt and Ben Francisco.
Thus, the majority of sports writers (from national to Sheldon Ocker) have concluded the Indians are done and finished. They snidely console us that "at least Cleveland still has LeBron."
Here are five reasons for Indians optimism if one digs a little deeper:
#1 Grady Sizemore- Many in the media say the Indians should, or will soon, trade Grady, but I retort the simple question: "Why?" Sizemore, still only 27, is signed for two more years at a bargain basement price of 13.1 million with a dirt cheap 8.5 million dollar option for 2012. Here are his WARs from '06-'08: 7.5, 5.9, 6.4. Granted he had a down year last year due to injuries, but he still put up a 111 OPS+. PECOTA predicts he'll put up the second highest WAR in the AL in '10 only behind Joe Mauer. The Indians could always trade Sizemore in 2012 if they actually are entering a lost decade. However, the Indians should be in position to compete in '11 so there's no reason to dump one of the game's premier players... at least not yet.
#2 The Lineup- Expanding up Sizemore.... look at the Indians' powerful, probable lineup:
1) SS Asdrubal Cabrera- He posted a .799 OPS in his year 23 season. For comparison's sake, Derek Jeter posted a .775 OPS in his year 23 season. Jeter subsequently put up the following OPS numbers the next four years: .864, .989, .896, .858. While Cabrera's likely not the next Jeter, he compares favorably to him.
2) CF Sizemore-See above.
3) RF Shin-Soo Choo-2008 wOBA-.402 OPS-.946 and 2009 wOBA-.389 OPS-.883 (Justin Upton 2009 wOBA-.388, OPS-.899)
4) DH Travis Hafner- Hafner will never again be the prolific slugger who put up OPSs of .993, 1.003 and 1.098 from '04-'06. Nonetheless, he rebounded and put up average-ish production for a DH in '09 (.825 OPS). Hopefully another year away from his shoulder surgery Hafner will be able to improve a bit upon that production, but if he doesn't at least Branyan provides nice insurance.
5) 3B Jhonny Peralta- Under Eric Wedge's watchful eye Peralta never came close to duplicating his outstanding age 23 season from '05 (.292/.366/.520). He completely tanked in '09 putting up a dismal .254/.316/.375 line. I think it's fairly safe to say that Peralta will bounce back to his solid '07-'08 levels (.771, .802 respective OPSs) with a new, less abrasive manager and an offseason to adjust to 3B.
6) 1B Russell Branyan- If for no other reason, signing Branyan for a bargain basement price of $2 million is a good deal for managing Brantley's service time. It never hurts to add a guy who whacked 31 homers in only 431 '09 ABs either.
7) LF Matt LaPorta- LaPorta is still unproven at the major league level. However, he ranked as BA's #27 prospect before 2009 and Kevin Goldstein gave him 5 stars then saying: "LaPorta projects as a classic high OBP/high slugging middle of the order presence."
8) 2B Luis Valbuena- Valbuena needs to polish his game especially defensively, but he's only 24 and had a higher ISO (isolated power=difference between BA and SLG) than Nick Markakis, Vladimir Guerrero and Todd Helton.
9) C Lou Marson- One of the many goodies acquired for Cliff Lee, he should be a decent high OBP, low slugging placeholder until Carlos Santana arrives midseason.
Pretty potent lineup.
#3- The Indians have a consensus top 5 farm system.
The Indians have Carlos Santana a dynamic catching prospect who looks a lot like a more athletic Victor Martinez, but with a little more power potential. Also looking to help in '10 is Michael Brantley who should infuse the lineup with a young, athletic high-OBP speedster. Lonnie Chisenhall may not be ready in '10, but Kevin Goldstein forsees a ".300 hitting third baseman with 20-25 home runs annually" in the future.
The Indians have some nice young pitching pieces already in the big leagues. Guys like Justin Masterson, Chris Perez, David Huff, Aaron Laffey, Tony Sipp and hopefully even Fausto Carmona constitute some decent building blocks. Granted none of those guys really jumps off the computer screen at you, but still the pitching staff topside isn't utterly devoid of talent.
As for the Indians minors pitching depth John Sickels said this: "The [Indians minor league] pitching.... wow, there is a ton of depth." The Indians have guys like Hector Rondon, Carlos Carrasco, Jess Todd, Zach Putnam, Josh Judy and Jeanmar Gomez who could easily help topside in '10. Futhermore intriguing arms like Alex White, Nick Hagadone, Jason Knapp, Kelvin de la Cruz, TJ House and Alexander Perez litter the lower levels of the Indians system. Some of these guys certainly will bust, but there is strength in numbers and the Indians have possibly unmatched pitching depth in the minors. The real question is this: will any of these guys become top of the rotation studs?
#4- Thankfully, the AL Central Sucks. Take a look at the PECOTA and CHONE projected standings. I'll do a post soon on the Tribe's AL Central opponents but just look at the projections:
PECOTA:
Minnesota-81-81
Chicago-80-82
Cleveland-79-83
Detroit-79-83
Kansas City-74-88
CHONE:
Minnesota-86-76
Cleveland-82-80
Chicago-81-81
Detroit-74-88
Kansas City-73-89
What a crapshoot. It's essentially a race to see who gets the honor of being swept out of the ALDS by the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays. Hell, despite the doom and gloom the rebuilding Indians look like they could have a legitimate shot of winning the Central in 2010. Well I'm not holding my breath, at least not for 2010, but it's nice to see that the Indians could actually make some noise before the bulk of their minor league talent is ready to help them.
#5- Manny Acta>Eric Wedge. Sure, Manny Acta has a career winning percentage of .385% (158-252), but he's held in high regard around the league. I like his positive energy and statistically- backed decision to drop Sizemore in the order. Hopefully he can shepherd the next wave of young Indians better than Eric Wedge could the last.
In conclusion, the Indians already have a strong lineup built around the impressive young core of Sizemore, Cabrera, Choo, LaPorta and Valbuena. Farm system reinforcements are on the way in the form of Carlos Santana and Michael Brantley this year and Lonnie Chisenhall and Nick Weglarz soon thereafter. Cleveland's current pitching staff, although certainly not barren, currently lacks the depth and impact talent to seriously contend. However, with their outstanding pitching depth coming up through the farm... The Indians should be in good condition to contend as early as 2011.
Long slow climb back? Ha, take that pessimists!
Humbly Yours,
Alex Trebek
Two other favorable pieces of news for the tribe:
ReplyDelete1) If Joe Nathan is indeed out for the year... that makes the AL Central even more of a crapshoot.
2) Almost forgot to mention that the Indians have the 5th pick in the draft next year. Here are some guys that have been picked 5-10 over the last few years: Buster Posey, Gordon Beckham, Matt Wieters, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki.
Wow... Thanks for relaying that about Keith Law, I hadn't seen that. What an idiot. I too enjoy Law's work, but that is so disappointing to see from him. He is one of those guys at ESPN that actually knows what he is talking about, so to see him fall in line with what I expect from that network is really sad.
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